Advanced Weapons Technology Gives Ukraine An Asymmetrical Advantage

Technology is a force multiplier and equalizer for Ukrainian forces, given Russia's numerical advantage in troops. 

To prevail, Ukraine is determined to build its asymmetrical capabilities. JL 

Jillian Melchior reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Western weapons are a force equalizer that enable Ukraine, a nation of 39.7 million in 2022, to stand toe-to-toe with Russia, population 144.7 million. Western weapons free up Ukrainian manpower otherwise needed for defense production. This support “is a factor that can reduce Russia’s quantitative advantage.  If we will fight Russia through a symmetrical approach, they mobilize more, we mobilize more, they win. We can win only through an asymmetrical approach.”

My interview with Petro Poroshenko this week began with a discussion of the importance of U.S. military support. It ended with the former Ukrainian president wiping away tears as he named friends who have died in the war.

“It’s all the time like your personal tragedy,” Mr. Poroshenko says. Among those who broke his heart: Oleg Barna, 56, a lawmaker, teacher, “a great father and husband” and an “enormously wise person. . . . I knew him for ages.” He insisted on participating in an assault operation and was “killed saving a friend.” Serhii Ikonnikov, “killed on his birthday, 25.” Glib Babich, 53, a musician and “one of the greatest poets I ever met,” dead. His list goes on.

Such losses take on a strategic significance as Western support for Ukraine wanes. Since Vladimir Putin launched his full invasion two years ago, Kyiv and its Western supporters have divided defensive responsibilities: Ukraine provides the people; the West supplies the weaponry.

Western weapons are a force equalizer that enable Ukraine, a nation of 39.7 million in 2022, to stand toe-to-toe with Russia, population 144.7 million. Western weapons free up Ukrainian manpower that would otherwise be devoted to defense production. This support “is a factor that can reduce Russia’s quantitative advantage,” says Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky. “We were in fact doing that as long as we had enough resources. Today, we are facing a certain shortage.”

The arms shortage is dire. “Without U.S. support, the situation is desperate,” says Rostyslav Pavlenko, a lawmaker from Ukraine’s European Solidarity party. “The Europeans are doing what they can, we are doing what we can, but given the mismatch in numbers . . .” He trails off. Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the Kyiv-based National Institute for Strategic Studies, says, “You either fight with modern weapons or you fight with men. That’s it.”

Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, a Ukrainian lawmaker from the European Solidarity party, says that “if we will fight Russia through a normal, symmetrical approach, they mobilize more, we mobilize more, they win. We can win only through an asymmetrical approach.” Anastasia Radina, a lawmaker from the ruling Servant of the People party, is even blunter: “We cannot compete with lives. We will run out. It’s really disturbing.”

Ukraine is looking for ways to increase its fighting force. In December the military suggested mobilizing as many as 500,000 more to fight. Lawmakers are considering legislation that would create a more comprehensive list of those eligible for military service and impose new consequences on those who fail to register, among other provisions. But tough choices accompany efforts to expand the military, and any political mistake could undermine national unity. Some soldiers have been fighting since day one. They’ve gained valuable experience but need rest.

Superior training is another force equalizer, but preparing new soldiers for battle requires money. If too many prime-age workers are away at war, the Ukrainian economy will struggle to produce tax revenue. “We need to remember that every service member costs the state significant amounts of money,” Mr. Podolyak says. Last year military, defense and security salaries, which aren’t covered by international donors, accounted for some 51% of Ukraine’s total defense-and-security budget of $48.3 billion.

Drafting an additional 400,000 to 500,000 soldiers would cost more than $8.4 billion, estimates Roksolana Pidlasa, a Servant of the People lawmaker who is head of the parliament’s budget committee. Russia is mobilizing about 1,000 new recruits a day, according to Serhii Kuzan, head of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, a Kyiv think tank. Moscow is also ramping up its domestic military manufacturing with support from its friends. Iran has been supplying Russia with Shahed drones, and North Korea is providing ammunition and ballistic missiles that Ukraine can shoot down only with dwindling Patriot or SAMP-T air-defense resources.

Without U.S. weapons, Ukraine is becoming outgunned and outmanned. “We can choose to allow this to happen, but this is only a problem because of our own self-limitation,” says Fred Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute. “The industrial capacity of the collective West dwarfs that of Iran plus North Korea plus Russia.”

Ukrainians are frantically trying to explain their dilemma to the U.S. They warn that Mr. Putin’s ambitions don’t stop in Ukraine, and that the risks to Americans range from economic havoc to an attack on a North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally. China is watching as it eyes Taiwan, and small countries are paying attention as they assess whether the U.S. can be trusted as an ally. Russia is “totally an existential threat for us,” Ms. Klympush-Tsintsadze says, “but how come [Americans] don’t see it as a challenge or a real threat to them? . . . That is something that is puzzling to many Ukrainians.”

Several sources say they feel Ukraine has become a hostage to America’s internal politics. Maryan Zablotskyi, a Servant of the People lawmaker, returned Monday from Washington. “Once they meet you, they promise you the world,” he says of U.S. lawmakers. “Unfortunately I think the word ‘Ukraine’ has become too politicized.” Ukraine’s biggest problem, he adds, is “relying on the promises of U.S. politicians and not doing the work with the American public.”

Mr. Poroshenko says he remains optimistic Washington will come through. But as Ukraine waits for weapons, “the price for every single day, or the price for every single hour, is rising dramatically. . . . Those who will read your article cannot imagine what does it mean, every single week, to be at the funeral of your friends.”