Why 2022 Destruction of Professional Army Prevents Russian Strategic Advance

Despite its success at Avdiivka - due largely to Putin's ability to corrupt US Congressional Republicans - the Russian army is unlikely to make significant further gains. 

This is because its professional army has largely been destroyed in two years of fighting against determined Ukrainian resistance, causing Russia to rely on hordes of untrained 'meat,' who can accomplish limited goals but not defeat a modern army. And Russia's defense industry is incapable of providing sufficient armor and ammunition even with imports from Iran and North Korea. JL 

Martin Fornusek reports in the Kyiv Independent:

Russia "doesn't have the strength" to conquer the two eastern Ukrainian oblasts this year. Despite recent successes, the Russian military faces problems. With its professional army largely destroyed in the first year of the full-scale war, Moscow resorts to using waves of untrained conscripts. The Russian defense industry also cannot produce as many shells as their military uses up, and most of the tanks that Russia fields are older models. An optimal scenario for Ukraine this year would be to go on the defensive and wear down Russian forces while building up its own strength, opening up a possibility for a counteroffensive in 2025

Russia "doesn't have the strength" to conquer the two eastern Ukrainian oblasts this year, Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov told the Wall Street Journal in an interview published on Feb. 21.

After the loss of Avdiivka, a front-line city in Donetsk Oblast that has resisted Russian attacks since 2014, there are growing concerns that Russia is gaining the upper hand in the war.

Russian forces are reportedly trying to push forward in five directions: Avdiivka, Marinka, Kreminna, and Bakhmut in the east, as well as Roboytne in the south. According to Budanov, Russia has around 510,000 military personnel in and around Ukraine and has been able to recruit 30,000 troops monthly.

Budanov noted that despite recent successes, the Russian military also faces problems. With its professional army largely destroyed in the first year of the full-scale war, Moscow resorts to using waves of untrained conscripts, he said.The Russian defense industry also cannot produce as many shells as their military uses up, and most of the tanks that Russia fields are older models, Budanov commented.

"They (Russia) don't have the strength" to achieve the strategic goal of capturing Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in their entirety this year, he noted.

Both regions have been partially occupied by Russia since 2014. Moscow declared control over the entire Luhansk Oblast in July 2022 after capturing Lysychansk, but a subsequent counteroffensive re-established a Ukrainian presence in the western reaches of the region.

An optimal scenario for Ukraine this year would be to go on the defensive and wear down Russian forces while building up its own strength, opening up a possibility for another counteroffensive in 2025, the Wall Street Journal writes.

A key condition for this strategy would be continued U.S. assistance, which is far from certain as a foreign aid bill that includes $60 billion for Kyiv remains stuck in Congress.