A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Mar 7, 2024

Russia Incapable Of Full Scale Offensive Amid Current Assaults At Bakhmut, Etc

The reason is that Russian forces are still too depleted from their suicidal assault on the ruins of Avdiivka, with most units needing replenishment and reorganization as casualties in many approached 30%. 

This depletion is evidenced by the Russians' use of weaponless, unarmored golf-cart-like all terrain vehicles to make attacks on Ukrainian positions which resulted in further horrendous Russian casualties. The Russians are not currently considered capable of launching a strategic offensive anywhere in Ukraine. JL

Ukraine Pravda reports:

Russian troops are currently conducting attacks to expand their control over the town of Bakhmut but they are unlikely to be able to mount an offensive. Russia's immediate operational goal in this area is likely to be the capture of Chasiv Yar, located about 5 km from the line of direct contact. "Despite some gradual tactical gains, it is highly unlikely that Russian forces are currently able to attempt a full-scale assault on the town."

UK Defence Intelligence believes that the current goal of the Russian occupying forces is to capture the town of Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast), but they are unlikely to be able to mount an offensive.

Source: UK Defence Intelligence review dated 7 March on Twitter, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The UK MoD stated that Russian troops are currently conducting attacks to expand their control over the town of Bakhmut, which they occupied in May last year.

UK Defence Intelligence noted that Russian forces have advanced and occupied the eastern parts of the village of Ivanivske and are also assaulting Ukrainian positions in the settlement of Bohdanivka.

Russia's immediate operational goal in this area is likely to be the capture of Chasiv Yar, located about 5 km from the line of direct contact.

"Despite some gradual tactical gains, it is highly unlikely that Russian forces are currently able to attempt a full-scale assault on the town," the review stressed.

Background: In a previous review, UK Defence Intelligence analysed Russia's losses in the Black Sea region over the past five weeks.

UK intelligence also stated that Russia attempted to attack regional energy facilities in Ukraine in February 2024, but the Ukrainian power grid maintains stable operation despite the bombardments.

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