Russia Runs Out Of Conventional Air Defense Systems As Ukraine Attacks Increase

Increasingly successful Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian oil refineries and other critical infrastructure have exposed a shortage of Russian air defense assets across most Russian territory west of the Ural Mountains.

The result is a growing vulnerability to air attack which cannot be offset by short term solutions like machine guns mounted on trucks. JL 

Ellie Cook reports in Newsweek:

Russia's military is forming new mobile fire groups to fend off Ukrainian drones, but they are an attempt to compensate for a lack of available air-defense systems in western Russia. "The formation of the mobile fire groups indicates that Russia is unable to deploy conventional air-defense systems, such as Pantsir-S1 or S-300 /400 systems, to all critical facilities within western Russia" and "will struggle to field these new groups at the required scale." 

Russia's military is forming new mobile fire groups to fend off Ukrainian drones, but they may be an attempt to compensate for a lack of available air-defense systems in western Russia, according to a new analysis.

Moscow is creating new units within existing armies, Russian state newspaper Izvestia reported on Friday, citing anonymous Russian military sources. The units will have trucks with mounted anti-aircraft guns, as well as electronic-warfare systems and smoke emitters. Mobile fire groups are designed to quickly respond to incoming air threats, like drones, wherever they are needed.

 

During the more than 25 months of full-scale war, Moscow and Kyiv have heavily invested in drone technology. Both sides wield airborne drones for a variety of purposes, including reconnaissance and to strike directly at assets with explosives.

Russia "will likely struggle to field these groups at the required scale in the near-term," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, said on Saturday.

 

"The formation of the mobile fire groups indicates that Russia may be unable to deploy conventional air-defense systems, such as Pantsir-S1 or S-300 /400 systems, to all critical facilities within western Russia," the think tank added.

 

Kyiv has frequently targeted Russian assets in Moscow-controlled parts of eastern Ukraine, and infrastructure—such as oil refineries—within Russia. The mobile fire groups are likely to be a response to Kyiv upping its strikes against oil-production sites in the past two months,

 

However, "it is unclear if these mobile groups will be able to defend the extent of territory that Ukrainian drones target," the ISW evaluated. New mobile fire groups will be more successful in Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory than in western Russia, "where Moscow appears to have even failed to cover important potential targets in reportedly well-defended areas," the think tank said.

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Air-defense systems are critical assets for both Russia and Ukraine. Each side has prioritized targeting these systems which protect forces from aerial assaults such as missiles and drones

 

The mobile fire groups appear to be similar to Ukrainian formations, which Kyiv has used in the past year to defend against repeated Russian Shahed kamikaze drone strikes, the think tank said.

Russia has targeted Ukrainian energy and military production infrastructure throughout the war, including ahead of the weekend, Ukraine said on Friday.

In his daily address on Saturday, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky praised the work of Ukrainian mobile fire groups for "successful target interceptions."

Ukraine's military has previously said it is relying on mobile fire groups to compensate for shortages in Western-supplied air-defense systems.

 

"Mobile fire groups are a forced step that the military leadership of the state was forced to take in order to provide local on-the-ground protection of the infrastructure facilities themselves and other state and strategic military objects," Yuriy Ignat, a former Ukrainian air force spokesperson, said in early November 2023.