The Reason Ukraine Has Fire Control Over Russians Around Bakhmut

Ukrainian forces have made it harder for the Russians to supply, reinforce and attack around Bakhmut because they have established artillery fire control over supply routes leading to the rubble which once constituted a city. 

The Russians transferred many of their own artillery assets to Avdiivka and are now having trouble bringing them back, creating an opportunity for Ukraine to stymie Russian operations on this front. JL 

The Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukrainian forces continued undermining the Russian offensive efforts by maintaining fire control of key Russian logistical routes. The reason why Russians are failing to provide cover for supplies is a scarcity of artillery in this area, without which Russians cannot suppress Ukrainian artillery fire. Russian vehicles, including tanks, armored personnel carriers, and supply trucks, were destroyed. Most Russian artillery systems in this area have been relocated which the Ukrainians are exploiting to the fullest extent.

The most interesting updates come from the southern flank.

Here, Ukrainian forces continued undermining the Russian offensive effort by maintaining total fire control of the key Russian logistical routes.

 

The continued inability of Russian forces to secure the key supply lines by conducting counterbattery missions to suppress Ukrainian artillery exposes a crucial weakness of Russian forces.

Map: Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

The reason why Russians are failing to provide cover for the moving units is twofold. First of all, there is a scarcity of artillery systems in this area, without which Russians cannot suppress Ukrainian artillery fire like in other areas of the frontline. Secondly, most artillery systems that were present in this area have been relocated to Ivanivske, where they are used to support Russian offensive efforts. Ukrainians are not wasting time and exploit this weakness to the fullest extent.

Map: Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

New updates show us that at least ten Russian vehicles, including tanks, armored personnel carriers, and supply trucks, were destroyed around the village.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Not only that, but many Russian soldiers were killed during the strikes on the vehicles.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Besides these losses, Russians had also lost a prized T-90-M tank to an FPV drone. T-90-M is considered the most protected tank in Russian service and there are less than two hundred of them, so they are more sensitive to losses with respect to these tanks than other tank variants.

When it comes to Ivanivske itself, the situation here is very complex.

Map: Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Latest reports suggest that Russian forces made some advances inside the village. Recently released geolocated combat footage indicates that Russians are operating in the central part of the settlement, namely, on Tereshkova Street.

Map: Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Ahead of each wave of assaults, Russians conducted extensive artillery preparations, after which they initiated bombardments with guided FAB bombs that left the whole village destroyed.

Map: Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

The current focus of bombardment is the southern part of the village. As we can see from combat footage, not a single building is spared from Russian bombings.

Map: Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Despite utilizing the scorched-earth policy, Russian progress in the village still comes at a great cost, as indicated by multiple destroyed tanks on the streets. Ukrainian fighters report that the situation in Ivanivske is dynamic and complex. To the north of the village, Russians made small gains and took a few prisoners of war, while that portion of the front was mostly in the gray zone.

Ukrainian control of the forest on the hill makes it harder for Russians to advance because they are observing and striking Russian positions in Ivanivske and threatening flanks by a potential flank attack. For this reason, Russians engaged their aviation and conducted aerial bombardment of Ukrainian positions, indicating that there is no Russian soldiers anywhere in the vicinity of the forest, and so far, all infantry assault have failed to get a foothold within the trees.

When it comes to the northern flank of Chasiv Yar, the situation is more difficult. Aerial bombardments seem to have become the most common in this part of the frontline. This was confirmed by Russian sources, which stated that after the fall of Avdiivka, the focus of Russian aviation shifted to Chasiv Yar. Russians are bombing Chasiv Yar every day because they want to try to weaken Ukrainian forces in the town and destroy their defensive positions before initiating urban fighting.

This approach helped Russians take Avdiivka, so they plan to utilize the same approach here as well. For this purpose, Russians also started the mass production of a guided variant of FAB-1500 bomb, which has over six hundred kilograms of explosive charge. According to Ukrainian fighters on the ground, the part of the town that suffered the most from airstrikes is the Kanal district. The fighters also recorded large bomb craters, which show us the density of Russian bombardments. This clearly indicates that Russians are not only bombing Ukrainian troops that are rotating from Ivanivske but also setting the conditions for launching the storming operation of Chasiv Yar. Ukrainians anticipated the course of events to unfold in this manner and, according to Spokesman for the Eastern Group of Forces Captain Ilya Yevlash, the Ukrainian forces have established significant defensive positions in and around Chasiv Yar in a ring-shaped
defense around the town.

He also stated that fortifications and firing positions have been set up within Chasiv Yar itself, likely in the area of high-rise buildings.

On top of that, Ukrainians have also created minefields and other defense obstacles in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar. By the looks of it, Chasiv Yar will be the next town to become the main focus of the Russian offensive. Its high elevation and its favorable geographic position compared to other parts of Donbas to the west of the town could give Russians a major advantage on a larger strategic scale.

Map: Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

This makes Chasiv Yar extremely important for the future course of war operations on both sides.

In the meantime, in order to take advantage of the fact that Ukrainians moved their reserves towards Chasiv Yar, Russian forces ramped up the intensity of their operations along the southern line.