A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Mar 6, 2024

Ukraine Repels Desperate Russians Attempting To Make Gains At Bakhmut

Russian commanders are evidently desperate to deliver even minimal gains to bolster Putin's foreordained reelection in two weeks. 

But superior Ukrainian defensive activity has repelled Russian advance attempts and inflicted even more casualties on depleted Russian forces. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

As the Putin presidential elections approach in just two weeks, Russian forces appear desperate to consolidate gains around Bakhmut. (But) strategic artillery dominance by Ukraine, augmented by drone strikes, has led to disruptions in Russian supply lines to their combat zones in this direction. Near Kurdyumivka, Ukrainian forces carried out successful artillery strikes on Russian positions. Russian forces’ minimal presence and limited artillery resources in the area, suggest a possible allocation of their artillery to other fronts, like Ivanivske (though) Ukrainian control remains over Ivanivske.

Today’s updates from the Bakhmut direction reveal significant activity, particularly on the southern flank.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Near Kurdyumivka, Ukrainian forces carried out successful artillery strikes on Russian positions, driving the opposing infantry to seek shelter. The 28th mechanized brigade notably managed to target numerous locations within a village, indicating the Russian forces’ minimal presence and limited artillery resources in the area, suggesting a possible allocation of their artillery to other fronts, like Ivanivske.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

This strategic artillery dominance by Ukraine, augmented by drone strikes, has led to disruptions in Russian supply lines to their combat zones in this direction. Moving slightly north to Klischiivka, geolocated videos indicate only minimal Russian territorial gains, further emphasizing the constraints on their progress in areas like Ivanivske. The efforts to take Ivanivske are seen as crucial by the Russians, believing it could lead to the collapse of the southern flank of Bakhmut and compel Ukrainian forces to retreat. Notably, the road to Ivanivske is a vital supply route extending to Chasiv Yar and Kostiantynivka, the latter being a major supply hub for Ukraine.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Recent missile strikes in Kostiantynivka, targeting infrastructure such as a train station, a supermarket, and a church, have disrupted Ukrainian supplies. While some impacts, like those on the church and supermarket, suggest the inaccuracy of Russian missiles leading mainly to civilian casualties, the strike on the train station appears to be a calculated attempt to interfere with Ukrainian logistics, as supplies and reinforcements typically reach Ivanivske from Kostiantynivka by train.

 

Despite claims from Russian sources, evidence suggests Ukrainian control remains over Ivanivske, with only portions of Sadova Street under Russian command. Footage released by the Russians shows bombings in central Ivanivske, underscoring the necessity for substantial artillery preparation before further advances can be attempted. Local air superiority, indicated by the use of FAB-Five-Hundred glide bombs, has made conditions challenging for Ukrainians.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

In the north, while no assaults have been reported, intense bombardment continues, particularly in Chasiv Yar’s eastern Kanal district. Here, Ukrainians are prepared to defend in a manner similar to their successful tactics in Vuhledar. The Russians seem determined to occupy Chasiv Yar as a precursor to advancing on Kostiantynivka.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Chasiv Yar presents numerous defensive advantages for Ukrainian forces. Its topography includes high elevations and widely stretched districts across separate hills. A substantial forest south of the town could hinder Russian armored assaults, confining the combat to stationary fights reminiscent of those in Kreminna’s forests.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

In Chasiv Yar’s central and eastern areas, industrial zones, robustly built and featuring underground shelters, serve as formidable fortifications. Additionally, the Siversky Donets canal bisects the town, further complicating any assault strategy the Russians might employ.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

As the presidential elections approach in just two weeks, Russian forces appear desperate to consolidate gains. The impending mud season adds pressure to secure positions, anticipating predominantly infantry engagements, which typically slow during this period. Recent developments hint that Russian movements may be a tactic to compel the redeployment of Ukrainian troops to the region.

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