Putin Knows It's Now or Never: Russian Armor, Troop Losses Drive Continued Attacks

Normal practice for an army as battered and weary as Russia's would be to call a halt in order to rest, rebuild and reinforce. 

But Putin recognizes that he is running out of time, equipment and people. He is continuing to order his troops in Ukraine to attack, hoping the Ukrainians will collapse before his army does. After the wasted winter the Russians have had, that does not seem like a good bet. JL 

Tatarigami reports in Frontintelligence Insight:

A Russian problem apparent since 2023 which continues to worsen in 2024: armored losses are being replaced by civilian vans, pickup trucks, and other unarmored vehicles. According to Oryx, since the start of the invasion, the number of lost vehicles has surpassed 15,000, including 2,856 tanks, 135 helicopters, 106 aircraft, and 20 ships. Russia cannot replace such numbers within two years, despite the Soviet legacy. Newly formed units don't get vehicles per their organizational structure. During the Avdiivka battle, the new Russian 25th army had to transfer equipment to the 2nd and 41st armies. It will take Russia multiple years to rebuild its army.Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell recently stated that "Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily." Frontelligence Insight has diligently observed Russian forces, their composition, and available resources. We would like to share several important points.

 

While it's true that Russia is constantly rebuilding its forces and trying to replace losses, including recruiting new personnel and creating new units and military districts, the reality differs significantly from what appears on paper. Frontelligence Insight has closely monitored multiple Russian units and noted a problem that has become more apparent since 2023 and continues to worsen in 2024: armored losses are being replaced by civilian vehicles such as vans, pickup trucks, and other unarmored vehicles.

 

We documented evidence of the replacement of T-72 tanks of various modifications with T-62 and T-55s in at least one tank unit. While we don't know the situation across all units, occasional videos of T-55 and T-62 in different areas suggest that this is not an isolated case. According to Oryx, since the start of the invasion, the number of lost vehicles has surpassed 15,000, as of around 2024/03/24, including 2,856 tanks, 135 helicopters, 106 aircraft, and 20 ships. Russia cannot replace such numbers within two years, despite the Soviet legacy.

 

In fairness, Russia still maintains an advantage over Ukraine in terms of replacement and substitution, as Ukraine has received minimal replacements since 2023, and its domestic production, while improving significantly, still lags behind in meeting frontline needs. Despite suffering losses in land, naval, and aerial vehicles, Russia has seriously expanded its UAV arsenal, potentially one of the most numerous in the world, consisting of hundreds of thousands of tactical reconnaissance, suicide, and bomber drones.

 

Yet, newly formed units don't get vehicles per their organizational structure, sometimes resembling rifle units more than motorized or mechanized units. Furthermore, during the Avdiivka battle, the newly formed 25th CAA had to transfer its equipment to the 2nd and 41st armies. Considering the above, Russian forces went through transformation, acquiring new UAV and EW capabilities as well as valuable experience, while also suffering tens of thousands of vehicle losses and the loss of experienced officers and soldiers.

 

It will take Russia multiple years to rebuild its army. Moreover, given the experience in the invasion of Ukraine, its post-2022 forces, previously organized in BTG units, will look very different - the future size and composition will depend on the outcomes of the war.