A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 4, 2024

Ukrainian Counterattack Against Weak Russians Recaptures Kupiansk Area

The most significant implication of this action is that Russian forces are not strong along the entire front. They have to move units and reserves from place to place either to attempt assaults or to defend against Ukrainian attacks. 

This means that they are not as strong as sometimes reported, creating opportunities for Ukrainian forces. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukrainian forces achieved a significant tactical victory after weeks of intense positional fighting. Geolocated images confirm they successfully launched a decisive counterattack using armored fighting vehicles, and recaptured positions north of Synkivka, pushing the Russian forces back northward. Additional Russian forces also retreated a kilometer further northwest. The loss of positions indicate that the Russian forces positioned here are badly degraded. Units of the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment, which until now had been fighting in the direction of Kupiansk, were redeployed in the direction of Lyman

Today, there is a lot of good news from the Kupiansk direction in northeastern Ukraine.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Here, Russian forces have been persistently attempting to close in on the critical city of Kupiansk for months. They have been alternating various attack vectors from multiple points along the entire line of contact, with a particular focus on Synkivka, a key area in this direction.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

As some military analysts indicated, the Russian command appears to employ here the following tactic. Firstly, they launch an attack on one vector, usually with high-cost frontal attacks, both in personnel and equipment, which generally end up exhausting their combat capability.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

At this point, this force has to pause to reconstitute itself, and simultaneously, the attack is initiated at another point of the front line. This sequence iterates again, allowing Russian forces to maintain the initiative and accumulate marginal gains over time.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

 

As for Synkivka, the Ukrainian forces achieved a significant tactical victory after weeks of intense positional fighting. Recent geolocated images confirm that they successfully launched a decisive counterattack using armored fighting vehicles, and they have recaptured several positions north of Synkivka, effectively pushing the Russian forces back northward and into the forest.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

The footage, filmed by a reconnaissance drone, starts with a Ukrainian BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle arriving at a hamlet on the edge of the forest north of the village.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

This area was, in previous weeks, controlled by Russian forces. The images show how the vehicle takes position and begins to riddle a Russian position located about 400 meters to the north with its 30-millimeter cannon. Moments later, the Russian position begins to burn due to secondary explosions.

Russian analysts confirmed in subsequent days that the surviving Russian forces in this position withdrew into the forest. At the same time, additional Russian forces located in a grove of trees east of this position also retreated a kilometer further northwest towards Vilshana. As you will recall, Russian forces maintain their main base in the village of Lyman Pershyi, located in the forest’s center.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

As for the forest itself, Ukrainian forces also continued their extensive drone attacks, dropping shells on Russian trenches, equipment, and personnel. In particular, the footage also shows a large number of night operations, in which, thanks to night vision cameras, Ukrainian forces are also repelling Russian forces inside the forest.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

Thanks to this counterattack, the Ukrainian forces have gained a small buffer zone next to the northern part of Synkivka, from the forest border to the road to Vilshana. A second video recorded by a Ukrainian fighter shows a brief walk through what was once one of the rows of houses north of the Synkivka, apparently without taking precautions as he walks, thus indicating this zone is now somehow away from the zero line. The shocking images show the high degree of destruction of what once was a village street. Every house, tree, and infrastructure is now completely demolished.

 

For the Ukrainian side, this breakthrough means that the Ukrainians are employing an active defense here and are taking advantage of any opportunity to conduct a counterattack, making clear the particular importance of this area for the defense of Kupiansk City. On the Russian side, the loss of positions could indicate that the Russian forces positioned here are badly degraded. Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash recently stated that Russian forces have intensified assaults along the frontline in the Kupiansk direction but noted that equipment and weapons shortages are limiting Russian forces’ ability to conduct offensive operations in this direction.

In addition, Russian forces may be also prioritizing other directions of the front at the moment. In this regard, a renowned Ukrainian military analyst noted weeks ago that units of the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment, which until now had been fighting in the direction of Kupiansk, had been redeployed in the direction of Lyman, potentially showing a temporary prioritization of this line over Kupiansk direction.

Overall, the Ukrainian forces, demonstrating their unwavering resilience, continue to fight fiercely in front of the Synkiva defensive line.

Screenshot from a Reporting From Ukraine video.

They have successfully conducted a counterattack, recapturing several positions north of the settlement and establishing a buffer zone next to the Russian positions. Russian forces, on the other hand, appear to be significantly weakened.

The degradation of the Russian units on the ground, coupled with the fact that their reserves were relocated to another region, may allow Ukrainian forces to assume a more active stance.

The current setting may allow Ukrainians to increase the extent of their countermeasures by knocking off Russian forces from positions in front of Lyman Pershyi and Vilshana, making Russians even lose ground in the aftermath of their offensive operations.

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