Why Ukraine Is Holding Despite Russia's Ammo and Troop Numbers Advantage

Ukraine has denied Russia any strategic advantage in the weeks following the withdrawal from Avdiivka and the 10 months since the withdrawal from Bakhmut. 

The reason for this impressive defensive performance is the ferocious fighting by Ukrainian troops - who fully understand the consequences of Russian occupation - and the clever use of Ukrainian drones, which have made up for the shortfall in artillery ammunition, thwarting Russian attacks. JL 

Phillips O'Brien reports his substack:

Over the past few months we have witnessed something that doesnt get the comment it deserves— the lack of change in the front line, even with the truly massive fire imbalance that exists between the two sides. US aid has been almost flat since August 2023. There is little sign of Russia being able to make major advances on the battlefield. Even with reduced artillery fire, vehicles are vulnerable. The Ukrainians, when they had very little artillery fire, have been able to use UAVs to keep the Russians from making advances, even though the withdrawal from Avdiivka was more than 6 weeks ago and the withdrawal from Bakhmut was now 10 months ago

What I thought I would today is do a quick survey of what we are seeing on the battlefield, and then spend sometime talking about the importance of Come Back Alive, the Ukrainian charity that Mykola and I both support. I’m doing this because the two of them are actually closely related.

Ukraine is holding while having to make small retreats.

Over the past few months now we have witnessed something that doesnt get the comment it deserves—and that is the lack of change in the front line, even with the truly massive fire imbalance that exists between the two sides. Its worth starting with this.

Basically US aid started falling precipitously in the last few months of 2023, before ending on January 1, 2024. Its worth seeing that US aid really has been almost flat since August 2023

in August 2023 it crossed the $40 billion line, only inched up a little by December 2023, and has flatlined since.

So for 7 months now the US has provided either only a little or absolutely no aid. The impact of this has been evident on the battlefield. The US—who has been easily the largest supplier of ammunition to the Ukrainians, has basically left the Ukrainians in the lurch, and having to fight the Russians at a massive disadvantage. Some NATO sources have said that the Russians regularly have a 10:1 advantage now over the Ukrainians when it comes to artillery fire. And this is not all. The Russians are also able to deploy more and more, very powerful glide bombs against Ukrainian positions.

A crater caused by a Russian Glide Bomb: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-russias-glide-bomb-assault-is-changing-the-war-in-ukraine-7m0jn3q7l

The firepower advantage is thus very strongly in Russia’s advantage and has been for a long time—actually for a significant period before 1 Jan 2024. That is why there have been some regular forecasts that Ukraine could have a collapse (or should have had a collapse by now). There are talks about Russia soon making major gains, even reaching Kyiv.

However, there is little sign of Russia being able to make major advances on the battlefield—at least til now. What we are seeing is what we have seen since the decision was made to pull out of Avdiivka. There are small withdrawals here and there—but they seem to be going at most a kilometre or two at a time. Here are the Institute for the Study of War’s maps of the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas.

In both cases the front line is within 10 kilometres of both cities, even though the withdrawal from Avdiivka was more than 6 weeks ago and the withdrawal from Bakhmut was now 10 months ago.

Part of this is down to the basics of the technological war. Neither side has found a way to protect vehicles going forward. Certainly the rise of UAV warfare both sides means that even with reduced artillery fire, vehicles are still vulnerable. In at least a few cases, it seems that the Ukrainians, when they had very little artillery fire, have been able to use UAVs to keep the Russians from making advances.

So even after months and months of massive Russian fire advances, with more and more Russian glide bombs, etc, the line is still only shifting in tiny amounts. Its a testimony to technology and the ferocity of Ukrainian resistance. Of course, at some point if Ukraine gets no ammunition, even this will end. What they are doing now is remarkable, but it cant last forever.

That is why what happens in the US House of Representatives and with the Czech plan to purchase shells is so important. If the latter comes through, Ukraine should be able to hold off any large-scale Russian advance, and if both come through, the Ukrainians should be able to fulfil their strategy for 2024, which is to inflict as much damage as possible on Russian forces while minimizing their own losses,

Note—I’m continuing to hear positive noises about Ukraine aid coming up for a vote in the House after the Easter Recess. I’m deliberately not pinning hopes upon this or screaming it from the roof-tops, but people who know the situation far better than are saying its looking MUCH better than a few weeks ago. Not a done deal—but closer than we realize. We can but hope.

Come Back Alive: Ukrainians have helped themselves to hold, and you can too.

One of the reasons that Ukraine has been able to hold against the Russian massed fire advantage, and keep up in the UAV war has been through their own increases and purchases in this area. This is what is important about Come Back Alive.

I got to know about Come Back Alive in some detail when I was in Kyiv last year.

Mykola and myself in the Come Back Alive Offices

I had a tour of their offices, met many of the people who work there, and saw how they went about their campaigns. This is a charity that spends almost no money on itself (sparse doesn’t do its offices justice) so that it can devote the vast majority of its funds to the Ukrainian armed forces, acquiring vital equipment that really does save Ukrainian lives. During the last few months, as Ukrainian ammunition has run very low, the supply of UAVs that Come Back Alive has been able to send to Ukrainian forces has become even more important.

Overall, the list of what they have acquired since Feb 24, 2022 is astonishing. Amongst just some of the equipment they have provided Ukrainian forces are:

• Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicle system;

• 26 Leleka-100 unmanned aerial systems consisting of 72 UAVs;

• 25 Shark unmanned aerial systems consisting of 75 UAVs;

• 11 PD-2 reconnaissance systems;

• 8,920 copters; 

• 20,200 FPV drones with ammunition;

• 1,460 machine guns of 7.62 mm caliber;

• 286 120-mm mortars;

• 200 automatic machine guns of 12.7 mm caliber;

• 300 mortars of 82 mm caliber;

• 50 automatic grenade launchers;

• 1,000 ATGL-L3 hand-held grenade launchers;

• 1,240 new vehicles;

• 11 armored vehicles;

• 10 maintenance workshops;

• 37,084 walkie-talkies;

• 16,022 tablets;

• 8,384 units of thermal imaging and night optics;

• 1,897 optical sights.

From the moment I visited the offices, I decided to make it the group that I would support