Limits Of Russian Kharkiv Probe Emerge As Ukraine Strengthened Defenses Hold

As informed analysts - and cooler heads - begin to assess the Russian incursion towards Kharkiv in northern Ukraine, there are indications the Russian attacks are limited probes involving dozens rather than hundreds or thousands of troops. 

There have been no sightings of a troop and armor buildup behind the Russian border in this sector and little indication that the Russian troops already committed are being substantially reinforced. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Early Thursday morning Russian troops in BMP and MT-LB armored vehicles rolled across the Ukraine’s northern border, just 17 miles outside Kharkiv, but (they were) platoon-sized elements of the Russian 11th and 44th Army Corps—dozens or scores of troops rather than hundreds. Ukrainian drones and artillery quickly destroyed several BMPs and MT-LBs and then destroyed a BREM armored recovery vehicle the Russians sent to retrieve the wrecked BMPs and MT-LBs. There’s no evidence they’re massing regiments and brigades for a serious push. “Claims of a collapse do not align with reality. Any further progress beyond this point remains highly challenging for” the Russians.

Many observers anticipated the Russian army would launch a major attack on May 9, which is Victory Day in Russia—the day the country celebrates the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

Sure enough, early Thursday morning Russian troops in BMP and MT-LB armored vehicles rolled across the Ukraine’s northern border, just 17 miles outside Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

Ukrainian drones and artillery quickly destroyed several BMPs and MT-LBs—and then destroyed a BREM armored recovery vehicle the Russians sent to retrieve the wrecked BMPs and MT-LBs.

But platoon-sized elements of the Russian 11th and 44th Army Corps—dozens or scores of troops rather than hundreds—managed to advance a mile or so south of the border and take up positions in the villages of Strilecha, Pylna, Krasne, Morokhovets and Oliinykove.

Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight urged calm. “Many have questioned how Russian forces crossed the border so quickly,” the group explained. “The answer is simple—the border is a gray zone without troops or fortifications directly on the border line.”

Instead, Ukraine has built defenses a few miles south of the border—and stationed army and territorial forces behind those defenses, from where they can respond to Russian incursions along the border zone.

“Claims of a collapse in defenses are premature and do not align with reality,” Frontelligence Insight added. “Unlike large mechanized units, Russian lightly armored small tactical units stationed in small villages along the border can relatively easily cross into the gray zone and seize control.”

While there are signs the Russians intend to reinforce their positions in that handful of border settlements they captured, there’s no evidence they’re massing entire regiments and brigades for a serious push toward the Ukrainians’ main defensive line between the border and Kharkiv.

Which is why, according to Frontelligence Insight, “any further progress beyond this point remains highly challenging for” the Russians.

But it’s likely major progress was never the point, Finnish analyst Joni Askola speculated. Askola posited the Kharkiv “offensive” is, in fact, an elaborate feint—one the Kremlin hopes will draw Ukrainian forces away from Chasiv Yar and the towns west of Avdiivka, the locuses of Russia’s costly winter-spring offensive in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

In that way, the Kharkiv feint might have the effect of “reducing the availability of reserves to counter Russia's primary offensive in the east,” Askola wrote.

If that’s the goal, there’s a chance the Russian operation is about to achieve it.

The Ukrainian army’s 42nd Mechanized Brigade may have been the first to move forces north to reinforce the territorial troops that were already there. And according to Ukrainian army officer Denis Yaroslavsky, the army’s 57th Motorized Brigade and 92nd Assault Brigade and the intelligence director’s Kraken Regiment have also moved toward the Kharkiv front.

It seems the Ukrainian general staff in Kyiv is spooked. And that may be the whole point. “It appears that Russians are aiming to instill panic and uncertainty in society by convincing the population of a looming threat across the border,” Frontelligence Insight noted.

“By prompting Ukrainians to move units to these areas, Russians are diverting Ukrainians from focusing on Russian strategic goals in the Donbas region.”