Russia's Recent "Unimpressive Gains" Reveal Coordination, Force Quality Problems

Experts are increasingly viewing the Russian military's recent winter and spring performance in Ukraine as 'unimpressive' due to its inability to defeat a substantially weaker Ukrainian army. 

Now that ammunition and reinforcements are bolstering Ukrainian front line units, Russia's advantages are disappearing and its momentum appears to have been lost. Again. JL 

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

During his visit to China last week, Putin was asked if Russia's goal was to capture Kharkiv. Putin said “there are no such plans today." Russian momentum slowed over the last few days. Russia underestimated Ukrainian capacity to respond and overestimated their own ability to penetrate deeper into Kharkiv, even though they allocated two Army Corps to the operation. Despite the significant advantage Russia has in manpower, and its dominance in firepower, recent Russian gains are not impressive. This indicates that they still have problems with coordination of operations and with the quality of their ground forces.

Speaking with reporters during his visit to China last week, Putin was asked if Russia's goal was to capture the city of Kharkiv. Putin described how “there are no such plans today…I said publicly that if this continues, we will be forced to create a security zone, a sanitary zone. So that's what we are doing.”

Of course, relying on the word of Putin is a good way to experience a strategic catastrophe.

Russian momentum here appears to have slowed over the last few days. The Russians may have underestimated Ukrainian capacity to respond in the area and overestimated their own ability to penetrate deeper into Kharkiv, even though they allocated two Army Corps to the operation (the 11^th and 44^th).

The Russian Belgorod-Kharkiv axis of advance and force disposition. Source: Past Paroinen, @Inkvisiit at Twitter / x

A large part of this force remains uncommitted and might be employed in a subsequent phase of the operation to menace the city of Kharkiv, and potentially undertake another operation to penetrate deeper into Ukraine. This would posture the Russians to hold Kharkiv at threat, increase the potential for artillery fire into the city and potentially provide a launch pad for any future, expanded Russian advance on the city.

Despite the significant advantage Russia has in manpower at present, and its massive dominance in firepower, the recent Russian gains in the northeast and east of Ukraine are not impressive. This indicates that they still have problems with higher level coordination of operations and with the overall quality of their ground forces.

Additionally, there has been recent speculation about a Russian ground offensive on Sumy. This is a city that the Russian 1^st Guards Tank Army attempted to seize, and failed, in February 2022. Intelligence chief General Budanov was recently quoted saying that "as for the Sumy region, the Russians actually planned an operation in the Sumy region from the very beginning... but the situation did not allow them to take active actions and start the operation." Whether Russia has the forces to begin such an advance remains to be seen but remains a possibility.