How Ukraine Helped Topple Assad In Syria

By stoutly resisting the significantly larger and better armed Russian military for almost three years, Ukraine has weakened Russia everywhere else in the world and nowhere more obviously than in its prime overseas ally, Syria. 

As a result of the losses it has suffered in Ukraine, Russia was unable to come to the Assad government's aid when a ragtag collection of militias threatened and then toppled it. Picture is of Russia troops retreating from Damascus to their last remaining Syrian base. JL

Andriy Yermak reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Russia’s strategic defeat in Syria is a massive blow to Vladimir Putin’s credibility. This outcome is a direct result of U.S. support for Ukraine, which has withstood the Russian military’s assault and drained Russia’s military and diplomatic resources. For nearly three years, the Ukrainian military has imposed significant costs on Russia. Ukraine estimates 700,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded and has lost 9,162 tanks, 18,470 armored vehicles, 28 warships and one submarine. Sanctions imposed on Russia have helped push inflation above 9%. With his military and economy degraded and his attention fixed on Ukraine, Mr. Putin had no choice but to let Syria’s Assad regime fall.

The media is treating Russia’s strategic defeat in Syria as a stunning and unexpected turn of events. Granted, it is a massive blow to Vladimir Putin’s credibility and ability to project influence in the region. This outcome, however, should be neither stunning nor unexpected. It’s a direct result of U.S. support for Ukraine in the face of Mr. Putin’s imperial overreach—and a strategic success for Washington and its allies.

With material support from the U.S., Ukraine has withstood the Russian military’s assault and drained Russia’s military and diplomatic resources. Sustained pressure by the U.S. on multiple fronts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East—including U.S. support for Israel—has destroyed the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah, a blow against the authoritarian axis led by Russia and Iran.

For nearly three years, the Ukrainian military has imposed significant costs on Russia. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine estimates that as of Nov. 1, about 700,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded. The organization also estimates that Russia has lost 9,162 tanks, 18,470 armored vehicles, 28 warships and one submarine. Sanctions imposed on Russia have helped push inflation above 9%, raising the risk of mass bankruptcies throughout the Russian economy.

With his military and economy degraded and his attention fixed on Ukraine, Mr. Putin had no choice but to let Syria’s Assad regime fall. Bashar al-Assad was Mr. Putin’s primary ally in the Middle East. Over the past decade, Russia has spent billions of dollars to prop up the Assad regime against the Syrian people.

Russia long used its strategic military bases in Syria—Tartus and Khmeimim—to project its influence far beyond its borders and counterbalance the U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization throughout the region. It used Syria as a staging ground to undermine U.S. allies in Africa. After the U.S. earlier this year was forced to withdraw from an air base in Agadez, Niger, that U.S. troops had used to conduct counterterror operations, Russian forces moved into the area. More broadly, Russia has degraded America’s influence in the Sahel and West Africa.

Further, Russia’s military presence shielded Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, as they used Syria to rearm Hezbollah following its 2006 war with Israel. Finally, from their positions in Syria, Russia and Iran exported their malign anti-Americanism.

The Kremlin’s inability to save the Assad regime sends a message to other despots who rely on Russia: Mr. Putin can’t be trusted. Russia and Iran will also no longer be able to use Syria to threaten U.S. interests in the region.

But this success comes with costs for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky tweeted on Dec. 8 that Ukraine has lost 43,000 soldiers since Russia invaded in 2022, and the number of injuries has reached 370,000. The Ukrainian people undergo daily attacks against civilian targets and energy infrastructure. Russia is trying to undermine Ukrainians’ will to keep fighting—but their resolve to preserve freedom and sovereignty remains ironclad.

With sustained U.S. support, Ukraine will further steel itself against these attacks. Ukraine isn’t only defending itself against Russia’s unprovoked and unjust war; it is also weakening Russia’s ability to threaten the free world.

Together, the U.S. and Ukraine can further capitalize on Mr. Putin’s weak position. By investing more money in Ukraine’s private sector, the U.S. can help Ukraine build stronger energy, critical-minerals, defense and other strategic industries. Strengthening these sectors will pay financial dividends and secure peace for years to come, benefiting both countries.

Ukrainians crave a peace that is just and sustainable, one that protects Ukraine, the U.S., Europe and our collective interests around the world. We must coalesce around new security, economic and legal measures that protect our shared interests. Only this kind of framework will prevent Mr. Putin from again threatening and invading Ukraine—and deter authoritarians worldwide from attacking other U.S. allies and partners.

Until this just and sustainable peace is secured, we are confident the U.S. will continue to support Ukraine, and that Russia and Iran will suffer more defeats as a consequence. American leadership is crucial.