More Russians Will Fight On Foot In 2025 As Vehicles, Armor Runs Out

NATO assessments are that much of the armor, artillery and vehicles Russia has remaining in storage is junk that may not even be useful for spare parts. 

That doesn't mean Russia will stop attacking - it just means it will have to do so on foot. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

In the 35th month of the wider war, it’s evident that Russian equipment reserves are finally on the cusp of exhaustion. Russia loses around 500 armored vehicles and other pieces of heavy equipment every month in Ukraine. More than 15,000 destroyed, damaged, abandoned and captured Russian tanks, fighting vehicles, howitzers, trucks and other vehicles. The point is: much if not most of what is left in Russian storage yards is useless scrap metal. As the wider war grinds toward its fourth year, the process of de-mechanization that began in late 2022 will accelerate—a lot.That doesn’t mean Russia won’t keep fighting. It does mean its forces will fight … on foot.

For nearly three years since Russia widened its war on Ukraine and it became clear that the war wouldn’t end quickly, observers have been asking: how long can Russia sustain its war effort?

There are many possible constraints including political will, money, manpower and equipment. Each sends a different signal. But in the 35th month of the wider war, it’s evident that equipment reserves are finally on the cusp of exhaustion.

Russia loses around 500 armored vehicles and other pieces of heavy equipment every month in Ukraine. In all, analysts have tallied more than 15,000 destroyed, damaged, abandoned and captured Russian tanks, fighting vehicles, howitzers, trucks and other vehicles.

Given that Russian industry builds maybe 200 new BMP-3 fighting vehicles and 90 new T-90M tanks annually as well as a few hundred other new armored vehicles including BTR-82 wheeled fighting vehicles, the vast majority of the replacement vehicles the Kremlin must generate to make good combat losses while also equipping newly established regiments unavoidably comes from vast stocks of old Cold War vehicles.

Storage yards held tens of thousands of old tanks, fighting vehicles and other vehicles as recently as 2022. That same year, the Russians began pulling the best-preserved vehicles out of storage for refurbishment. We began to see T-72, T-62 and T-55 tanks—respectively dating from the 1970s, 1960s and 1950s—along the front line.

But these stocks aren’t infinite. As they began to deplete, we observed civilian-style vehicles leading Russian assaults: cars, vans, all-terrain vehicles, motorcycles and even electric scooters. Today, it’s practically routine for some unarmored civilian vehicle packed with terrified Russian infantry to barrel toward Ukrainian lines—likely heading for fiery destruction.

The deployment of civilian vehicles was a sign of stress in Russia’s vehicle-generation effort. Recent satellite imagery indicates even deeper stress. In some of what were once the most abundant vehicle parks, there is no longer any recoverable equipment. This despite overhead imagery depicting long lines of vehicles in these yards.

Open-source analyst Jompy explained it best, taking BTR wheeled IFVs as a case study. “It looks like Russia still has overall 2,358 stored BTR-60/70/80s out of the 3,673 it had in storage before the war,” Jompy wrote last month.

But looks can be deceiving. “In reality, most of the vehicles are older BTR-60s and -70s, and in poor condition. How poor?” They scrutinized the 1063rd Logistics Center in Saigrajewo plus vehicle parks in Kaliningrad and Smolino and came to a revealing conclusion.

None of the vehicles in Saigrajewo have moved from their parking spots since 2020. The ones in Kaliningrad have been immobile since 2018. Those in Saigrajewo haven’t budged since 2010.

This matters. “A vehicle that doesn’t move for so long is a dead vehicle, unless a very expensive and time-intensive repair process is applied to them,” Jompy wrote. “And if you don’t believe me, you surely have seen what happens to abandoned civilian cars over just a few years in the open air.”

The point is: much if not most of what is left in Russian storage yards is useless scrap metal. As the wider war grinds toward its fourth year, the process of de-mechanization that began in late 2022 will accelerate—a lot.

That doesn’t mean Russia won’t keep fighting. It does mean its forces will fight … on foot.

They may advance in this manner. Indeed, foot-borne infantry often fare better on drone-patrolled battlefields than easy-to-spot vehicles do. But there’s one thing leg infantry can’t do: they can’t exploit breaches in enemy defenses in order to swiftly and deeply penetrate enemy territory.