We are nearing the end of January, and Russian micro advances are getting more micro. The Russian plan to cut the roads into Pokrovsk (which was supposed to fall in August 2024) crept forward a few kilometres. Polish Foreign Secretary Radosław Sikorski. A strong backer of Ukraine, stated at Davos he believes Ukraine has already received and stockpiled the resources its needs to fight through 2025. It is believed Ukraine received a flood of new supplies in the last two months (both from the outgoing Biden Administration and from European sources), so in supply terms is doing better than people realize. In other words, Trump stopping aid wont lead to an immediate crisisDavos is not a good place for hard information. It is basically populated by people who think they are important, gossiping based on second, third, fourth hand information which has come into their possession. However what was fascinating is how little was actually known there—which left people obsessing about Trump tweets (which they could have done in their living rooms).
Thus it was a really bad place to get any real information about the state of the Ukrainian military. However there was one piece of information that was stated by a very credible source—Polish Foreign Secretary Radosław Sikorski. A strong backer of Ukraine, Sikorski stated in a publicly streamed breakfast (he starts speaking one hour and 2/5 minutes after the video starts) that he believes Ukraine has already received and stockpiled the resources its needs to fight through 2025. This btw was also stated in another private meeting that I heard from a credible source—that is is believed Ukraine received a flood of new supplies in the last two months (both from the outgoing Biden Administration and from European sources), so in supply terms is doing better than people realize. In other words, Trump stopping aid wont lead to an immediate crisis as happened when the Republicans in Congress stopped aid for the first few months of 2024.
This optimistic view is not universally shared. For instance, an adviser to the outgoing Biden Administration, speaking in a populist capital in Europe this week, was far more downbeat. They prophesied a Ukrainian collapse in 2025—because the Ukrainians have not listened to the Biden Administration no less. Moreover this adviser waxed rhapsodical about Russian military adaptation. Sadly, I cant pass on any more details (but I have them).
So there are some very different views of Ukraine’s fighting shape that are being passed around. I won’t judge between them. However we might see Ukraine’s reactions to Trump’s pressure as a sign. If Trump starts pushing a cease-fire with Putin keeping what he has, and no credible security guarantees—Ukraine is under no obligation to accept his terms. If the Ukrainians believe that they can keep fighting and Russia is not in great shape, they might delay and keep going. If they, otoh, instantly jump of a Trump cease-fire plan, that reveals something else.
This also shows why Europe is so important and why the failure of Europe to coordinate and be forceful enough in its backing for Ukraine has been so deleterious. If Ukraine does have a decent supply of military equipment, and Europe was willing to step up, it would strengthen Ukraine’s position immensely.
The Battlefield.
Not much to add. We are nearing the end of the first month of January, and Russian micro advances are getting more micro. The Russian plan to try and cut the roads into Pokrovsk (which was supposed to fall in August 2024 if you remember) crept forward a few kilometres—but that’s about it. Here is the map today showing the furthest Russian extent (centre on Avdiivka, which the Ukrainians withdrew from almost a year ago). The Russian advance in that time has been just under 40 miles.
Here is the same map a week ago—so Russian advances in the last week have been about one mile (from 57.89 kilometres from Avdiivka a week ago to today being 59.27 kilometres).
Its about time that we have another round of stories about the brilliance of Russian military adaptation and the impending collapse of Ukrainian morale. There is much evidence for it now as there has always been.
Jan 27, 2025
Russian Donbas Micro-Advances Get Smaller As Ukraine's 2025 Supplies Grow
Two countervailing trends reveal how the war may evolve in 2025.
On the one hand, despite reports that Russian equipment, troop strength and successes are growing, maps indicate virtually no movement along the entire front. Which suggests both that the reports are Russian propaganda parrotted by credulous or lazy media and that the Kremlin's actual performance reflects the ongoing problems with supply shortages and tactical inadequacies. As or more importantly, it appears that Ukraine, understanding full well the potential threat that the Trump election posed, have secured enough supplies from Europe and the departing Biden Administration to last through 2025. JL
Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:
1 comments:
This post on the micro-advances in the Russian Donbas region is incredibly insightful! It’s fascinating to see how small changes can have a big impact over time. It made me think about how incremental progress plays a huge role in Jobs N Recruitment as well. Just like these micro-advances, recruitment strategies evolve over time, with small but significant improvements that lead to better matches between employers and candidates. It’s all about building momentum for long-term success. Thanks for sharing such an eye-opening perspective!
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