Negotiations Effect? Russian Can't Continue War Beyond 2026 Due To Tank Losses

Russia has lost so many tanks and other armored vehicles in Ukraine - which it is unable to replace at anything close to its rate of attrition - that it will be incapable of mounting offensive operations essential to continuing the war by early 2026. 

The problem for Russia is not only that it is losing so much armor to Ukrainian drones, mines, artillery and anti-tank weapons, but that it cannot make up, let alone replace those losses. Its industry is unable to meet the demand due to obsolescence and lack of scale that was a problem even before sanctions rendered it ineffective, but also that the only Soviet armor remaining in storage facilities is so deteriorated that it may not even be a useful supply of spare parts. And while the impact on the battlefield has become noticeable, the larger challenge may be at the negotiating table, as Putin's military pretensions are increasingly laid bare. JL

Brendan Cole and Ellie Cook report in Newsweek:

The current rate of Russian tank losses in Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine could see them run out of the military vehicles by next year. Over the course of the war, Russia has lost @14,000 MBTs, IFVs and APCs. It has been able to reconstitute some losses through stored Soviet armor. (But) equipment in storage is now highly likely to be deteriorated, making it hard for Russia to deliver enough to offset attrition. Russia will not have sufficient tanks to conduct offensive operations beyond early 2026. The prospect of a looming shortage of tanks could make a difference on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.

The current rate of Russian tank losses in President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine could see them run out of the military vehicles by the end of next year, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

In releasing its annual assessment of global military capabilities, the think tank said Russian forces lost around 1,400 main battle tanks (MBTs) in 2024, along with other high losses of infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and armored personnel carriers (APCs).

Newsweek has yet to verify this and has emailed the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.

File photo: A Russian battle tank T-72 travels outside the town of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast, Russia, on August 8, 2024. ANATOLIY ZHDANOV/Getty Images

 

The IISS assessment of Russian tank losses backs up Kyiv's estimates of the high cost in equipment that Moscow is paying for its full-scale invasion. The prospect of a looming shortage of tanks could make a difference on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.

What To Know

In its report "Military Balance" released Wednesday, the IISS estimated that last year, Russian equipment losses amounted to around 1,400 tanks, as well as 3,700 IFVs and APCs. Over the course of the war, Russia has lost approximately 14,000 MBTs, IFVs and APCs, the IISS said.

Its report added that Russia has been able to reconstitute some of these losses by relying on stored Soviet legacy equipment and that in 2024, Moscow's forces had refurbished and built more than 1,500 MBTs and around 2,800 IFVs and APCs.

However, the equipment in storage is highly likely to be in a deteriorated condition, and this may make it hard for Russia to deliver enough equipment to offset previous attrition rates.

 

IISS Director-General and Chief Executive Bastian Giegerich said current Russian equipment losses cannot be offset indefinitely by refurbishing stored vehicles. He added that Moscow may not have enough MBTs for its offensive operations beyond 2026.

However, Giegerich also said that Ukraine's forces were also under strain through attrition and troop shortages and were increasingly relying on developing unmanned aerial vehicles and using one-way attack UAVs to strike deep inside Russia.

 

IISS Director-General and Chief Executive Bastian Giegerich said of Russia: "While its defense industry demonstrated resilience, its current rates of production and the refurbishment of stored vehicles will not offset battlefield losses indefinitely.

"The IISS assesses that Russia will not have sufficient main battle tanks to conduct effective offensive operations beyond early 2026 if it maintains the same operational tempo and suffers the same losses as in 2024."

 

What Happens Next

Regardless of the high equipment losses, the IISS analysis showed that Russia is continuing to spend huge sums on its military, with expenditure growing by 42 percent in real terms in 2024 to an estimated $145.9 billion.

However, in terms of purchasing power in parity terms, the figure was closer to $462 billion, which was more than total European spending in 2024.