Russia Plays A Weak Hand Strongly While the US Plays A Strong Hand Weakly

The Russian military's inability to beat, let alone finish off the Ukrainians is now clear. But that may be the least of Putin's problems. 

The Russian economy is running on fumes, its vital energy exports are now shrunken and facing further restriction while inflation ravages what economic life it has left. Despite all this, Putin is approaching ceasefire negotiations like a conqueror on the cusp of victory, while the new US administration, believing its 1.4% plurality to be a mandate, falls all over itself to offer concessions to an authoritarian regime it hopes to ape, without gaining anything, a performance even strong supporters are calling "rookie mistakes." Sad. As the saying goes. JL

Mitzi Perdue reports in the Center For European Policy Analysis:

Putin is playing a weak hand forcefully, while the United States is playing a strong hand weakly. With its robust economy, global alliances, and democratic institutions, America has the tools to counter Russia effectively. There’s a steep economic price for repression, and the mounting costs of sustaining this level of control may soon exceed Putin’s capacity to pay. His position may be more precarious than it looks. As economic hardships deepen under sanctions and military overreach, and as body bags from Ukraine continue to arrive in minority regions, Russian regional and minority discontent can be expected to rise.

If you wonder what keeps Vladimir Putin up at night, consider this: the Russian Federation has 193 officially recognized ethnic groups, many simmering with resentment — resentment kept in check only through severe repression.

The Russian Federation survives through censorship, surveillance, arbitrary arrests, paramilitary crackdowns, and the brutal silencing or murder of activists and local leaders.

This strategy has its limits.

There’s a steep economic price for this much repression, and the mounting costs of sustaining this level of control may soon exceed Putin’s capacity to pay. His position may be more precarious than it looks. There are a lot of unhappy people in Russia.

Decades ago, Henry Kissinger shared advice on this kind of situation, and it’s advice that still resonates today. He told my Harvard classmates and me that while the United States excels at scrutinizing its own weaknesses (a healthy exercise, he noted), we often fail to see the vulnerabilities of our adversaries. We miss the cracks and fragility beneath the surface (see Bashar al-Assad’s sudden and unexpected demise in December.)

As we navigate negotiations with Russia, it’s important to understand Putin’s fears. He rules over a patchwork of territories, many of which view the central government as a neo-colonial oppressor. Their grievances are numerous and profound:

Cultural Obliteration: Moscow systematically seeks to erase minority cultures by banning local languages from schools, undermining traditional practices, erasing history, and promoting a “Russian” identity. The head of Russia’s Federal Agency for Ethnic Affairs (FADN), Igor Barinov, is a former FSB officer and internet censorship advocate who lays greater emphasis on counter-terrorism than protecting indigenous rights

Economic Exploitation: Resource-rich regions such as Tatarstan and Yakutia see their wealth extracted to fund the Kremlin’s ambitions, while their own populations languish in poverty — Yakutia sends more than $3bn annually to Moscow in diamonds and other commodities while remaining one of the poorest in the country.

 

Military Conscription: Ethnic minorities are disproportionately drafted to fight in Russia’s wars, including the current conflict in Ukraine. These communities bear the brunt of casualties, deepening their resentment. One example — about 1,000 men from sparsely populated Yakutia have so far been killed in Ukraine.

Political Repression: Local leaders who challenge Moscow’s authority are swiftly removed or silenced, and protests are met with brutal crackdowns, often involving jail time. According to a Proekt study, Putin has persecuted more people than either Khrushchev or Brezhnev.

The Chechen wars of the 1990s and early 2000s provide a stark example of how ethnic tensions can erupt into full-scale conflict. By some estimates, these cost as many as 100,000 lives. While Chechnya’s resistance was brutally crushed, similar grievances simmer across the Federation.

As economic hardships deepen under sanctions and military overreach, and as body bags from Ukraine continue to arrive in minority regions, regional and minority discontent can be expected to rise. By some estimates, Russia has endured more than 700,000 casualties; there are podcasters who say that everyone in Russia now knows someone who was killed or wounded in the Ukraine war.

Putin is playing a weak hand forcefully, while the United States is playing a strong hand weakly. With its robust economy, global alliances, and democratic institutions, America has the tools to counter Russia effectively. What is needed is the political will and strategic clarity to use them.

• Support Minority Rights: By amplifying the voices of Russia’s ethnic minorities and exposing the Kremlin’s repressive policies, the West can undermine Putin’s narrative of a unified Russia. This includes funding independent media, supporting human rights organizations, and providing platforms for minority leaders.

• Target Economic Exploitation: Sanctions should highlight the exploitation of resource-rich regions and the corruption of local elites loyal to Moscow. This approach can foster dissent and weaken the Kremlin’s grip on these areas.

By focusing on Putin’s vulnerabilities, the United States can counter his aggression and hasten the day when the Russian people — including its long-oppressed minorities — can build a future based on freedom and equality.

This is President Trump’s opportunity to act boldly. The stakes are too high for half-measures.