Russia's Latest Kursk Assault Has Petered Out - Just Like the Previous Ones Did

Russia announces another massive assault in Kursk, so western media indulge in paroxysms of pearl-clutching doom, predicting that Ukraine must withdraw or face encirclement. And then...

Four days later, the Russian attack has petered out, while Ukrainian forces in most parts of Kursk remain where they were. The reality, which many lazy or biased western journalists refuse to acknowledge, is that Russia no longer possesses the capability to launch breakthrough offensives because it has squandered its advantage in troops and equipment. It will continue to make small public relations-driven attacks for the benefit of the media and the Trump Administration, but it is no longer the force it was three years ago. And while we're on the subject, whatever happened to all those game-changing North Koreans? JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

In preparation for Trump and Putin trying to force a bad cease-fire deal on Ukraine, Russia is throwing everything it can to try and retake as much of the Kursk salient as possible. The more the Ukrainians hold of Russia, the worse it is for Putin. (But) the Russian Kursk advance started four days ago—then stopped. And in Donbas, for massive cost in this area, the Russians have barely moved the line. This decreasing (ability to) advance is the military story that is more important. It is the story of the war this last 14 months. The Russians make a small advance, people lose their heads talking about the Ukrainians about to be surrounded and collapse, and then the advance peters out.

Because the Russians have made so few advances for the last two months, people were obviously growing restless trying to find some sign of Ukrainian collapse. This might explain the overreaction (as always) to a small Russian advance. Here was the map of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk 5 days ago.

And here is the exact same map now—with a ruler to show the Russian (actually could be said to be North Korean advance as well as Russian). It was 6.42 kilometres—which translates as 3.98 miles.

Almost all of that advance actually happened almost four days ago—then it has stopped. This is actually the story of the war this last 14 months. The Russians make a small advance, people seem to lose their heads talking about the Ukrainians about to be surrounded and collapse, and then the advance peters out.

What seems to be happening is that in preparation for Trump and Putin trying to force a bad cease-fire deal on Ukraine, Russia is throwing everything it can to try and retake as much of the Kursk salient as possible. The more the Ukrainians hold of Russia, the worse it is for Putin. He also now understands that Trump has his back—so he can basically throw the kitchen sink at Kursk to try and take what he can.

One will imagine such attacks continuing.

The flip side of this is that Russian attacks in the Donbas seem to be in their least successful phase for more than a year. Here is large segment of that front running from Pokrovsk to Chasiv Yar, as it stands today.

And here is that exact same front on January 1, 2025 (68 days ago).

For massive cost in this area, the Russians have barely moved the line. This decreasing advance is the military story that is more important.

Its also the great tragedy of the USA switching sides and becoming an ally of Putin. Ukraine was actually inflicting unsustainably high casualties on the Russians. If Europe had stepped up and US aid simply continued as under Biden (particularly with intelligence), the Russians would have had a hard time sustaining the fight by the end of 2025.