Ukraine's Agreeing To Mineral Deal Shocked WH, Necessitating Trump Tirade To Kill It

The mineral deal was designed to be so unacceptable that it would prompt Ukraine to refuse it, which would give Trump the excuse he wanted to say that Zelensky was torpedoing peace so that he could then justify offering Putin the deal he wanted all along, which is Ukrainian capitulation. Ukraine would say no to that as well, then giving Trump and Putin excuse to end sanctions and restore relations.

But Ukraine called Trump's bluff by agreeing to sign the rotten deal because they knew it would force Trump into a corner. This is what led to the manufactured ambush in the Trump White House, which never wanted to sign the deal, however meaningless it was. So the Ukrainian people are united and angry while Europe has come together in the face of the now apparent Putin-Trump threat (exacerbated Vance's chronically obnoxious behavior). JL

Peter Olandt reports in Daily Kos:

Trump’s goal is to lift US sanctions on Russia and pressure Europe to do the same. This is Putin’s Hail Mary to salvage Russia’s flagging fortunes in Ukraine. Russia's army is losing and its economy is coming apart. Trump wants to come to Putin’s aid, but prefers to have an excuse. The mineral deal was proposed at such a ludicrous amount to trigger a no from Ukraine, which was never expected to say yes. But Ukraine called their bluff, which was leading to a deal signing that looked like Trump was supporting Zelensky. The Ukrainians negotiated very pro-Ukrainian wording suggesting support from the US even without actual support. So Friday’s political ambush by Trump and Vance was to antagonize Zelensky into a fight which would allow Trump to "justifiably" get angry with Zelensky and blow up the mineral deal.

I was not surprised by the Oval Office tantrum on Friday.  It is who Trump is and I’m very glad he did it in such a public manner to make it impossible for foreign leaders to ignore.  President Zelensky, I am so sorry you had to go through such an awful experience.  That you did so with such grace, passion, and strength showed the world who in that room possessed real leadership.

But what was that all about?  It makes the most sense to start with what is coming next and work backwards.  Trump’s end goal here is to lift US sanctions on Russia and pressure Europe to do the same.  This is Putin’s Hail Mary pass to turn around Russia’s fortunes in Ukraine.  The Russian economy is coming apart at the seams.  Trump wants to come to Putin’s aid and will, but he’d prefer to have an excuse to do so and if he is to get Europe to go along he needs a very good excuse.

That excuse is to manufacture a situation to make it seem as if Ukraine is not interested in peace which would therefor justify ending sanctions on Russia.  To create that impression, Trumps next move (which I expect will happen within a week or two, but that’s a guess) will be to declare a Peace Treaty with Russia out of the US/Russian negotiations which Ukraine has not been a part of.  That “Peace” Treaty is of course a Ukrainian surrender to Russia fulfilling all of Putin’s goals.  It will cede all 5 claimed oblasts, including land Russia hasn’t even taken, to Russia; lift all sanctions on Russia; probably demand Ukraine pay reparations; and demand that Zelensky immediately step down.  It may even demand that Yanukovych (or some other Russian flunky) become president directly without an election.

Zelensky will of course refuse to abide by this ridiculous treaty at which point Trump will say “See, Zelensky doesn’t want Peace!” and use that to warp US policy towards Russia and end US sanctions.  But before the “Peace Treaty” can be finished, they apparently wanted to set Zelensky up first to weaken him and Ukraine before the “Peace Treaty” is announced.  That softening up was supposed to be the mineral deal.

 

The mineral deal was proposed at such a ludicrously high amount precisely to trigger a no from Ukraine.  Ukraine was never expected to say yes to it, and if they did, then Trump would make out like a bandit.  But Zelensky threw them a curve ball when he said maybe and proceeded to haggle it towards a more Ukraine friendly place.  But here I think the US “Negotiators” didn’t follow their directions and actually proceeded to negotiate when they were probably supposed to get it to a place where Ukraine would have to say no.  Instead, it got negotiated to a place where it wasn’t really a deal but instead looked like a deal with all important details pushed to the future.  

 

My guess is that the negotiators probably thought Trump actually wanted the deal and so agreed to a toothless agreement that included the words “50 percent of all Ukrainian minerals”.  I don’t think they understood their objective was to make impossible demands of Ukraine to prompt a no.

But suddenly Ukraine was saying Yes to this and it was leading to a “Triumphant” deal signing where it would look like Trump was supporting Zelensky no matter how toothless the deal was.  The Ukrainians were able to negotiate into the Agreement some very pro-Ukrainian wording suggesting support from the US even if it didn’t include actual support.  Such an agreement would make the upcoming “Peace Treaty” charade harder to pull off.

So enter Friday’s political ambush of Zelensky.  It was clearly Vance’s assignment to antagonize Zelensky into a fight which would allow Trump to “justifiably” get angry with Zelensky and blow up the mineral deal.  They attacked Zelensky first on not saying “thank you” which is utterly absurd, but eventually the attack turned into “Zelensky doesn’t want Peace”.

So now when the “Peace Treaty” is announced in the near future, when Zelensky doesn’t agree, they will point to this interaction as further “proof” that Zelensky doesn’t want peace.  With now two refusals by Ukraine of US deal offers, Trump will declare that Ukraine cannot be worked with and remove US sanctions of Russia.  What Trump and his handlers don’t understand is how offensive all of this is to people who actually support Democracy.  They are used to their audience being MAGA cultists who will gladly swallow whatever piece of shit is being served up and convince themselves it’s the tastiest thing they’ve ever eaten.  It doesn’t occur to them that Friday’s verbal assault on Zelensky will be interpreted as Trump and Vance being assholes.  They are surrounded by sycophants who don’t have the perspective (or backbone) to point out to Trump how much of the world will take this performance.

 

Expect in the next few days for the press to get their marching orders to focus on Zelensky being “rude”, “ungrateful” and “wanting. war”.  Fox News will hold to whatever orders are issued so we’ll be able to gauge how well the other media follows along.  

So to recap this absurd B-movie plot:

1. Make an absurd mineral offer that Ukraine will refuse.
2. Oops, Ukraine didn’t refuse and the stupid negotiators actually negotiated
3. We have to kill the Mineral Deal and “Make Zelensky Look bad”.
4. We come to the Oval Office ambush on Friday
5. Next comes media making out how rude Zelensky is and he doesn’t want peace.
6. Trump announces his amazing “Peace Plan”.
7. Ukraine rejects the absurd surrender portrayed as a “Peace Plan”
8. Trump gets upset, points to how Zelensky doesn’t want peace
9. Trump lifts US sanctions on Russia and starts pressuring Europe to do the same.

Thankfully the world is not falling for this lame plot line.  Hopefully Trump somehow picks up on that and doesn’t follow the script.  Trump is certainly trying to screw over Ukraine but perhaps the Europeans can somehow convince him to hold back.

In the meantime, Europe needs to prepare many times harder than they have been.