Why Russia's Long Anticipated Summer Offensive "Is Doomed To Fail"

"Everyone' knows Russia is preparing to launch yet another summer offensive in Ukraine. Which is exactly the problem. 

Everyone knows approximately when it will begin in earnest. Everyone knows the likely targeted sectors. And everyone knows, after three years of watching the Russian military refuse to adapt, how it is likely to unfold. That foreknowledge is in addition to Russia's widely recognized 'severe' shortages of equipment as well as the poor quality of the new and undertrained conscripts being rushed to the front. All of which combines to make the chances of this offensive achieving its initial objectives, let alone breaking through, extremely unlikely. JL

Verity Bowman reports in The Telegraph:

Russia’s long-anticipated new offensive in Ukraine is unlikely to succeed due to mounting equipment shortages, poor troop readiness, and Ukraine’s expanding drone capabilities. A severe shortage of tanks and armored vehicles in the Russian army is preventing it from capitalizing even on minor tactical advances. (And) Russian attempts to move large numbers of troops into combat positions have also been thwarted by Ukrainian drones. Experts thus believe Russian dictator Vladimir Putin won’t be able to achieve significant battlefield gains before any peace agreement is reached. 

Russia’s long-anticipated new offensive in Ukraine is unlikely to succeed due to mounting equipment shortages, poor troop readiness, and Ukraine’s expanding drone capabilities, analysts told The Telegraph on April 11.

Experts believe that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin won’t be able to achieve significant battlefield gains before any peace agreement is reached. The article highlights  a severe shortage of tanks and armored vehicles in the Russian army, preventing it from capitalizing even on minor tactical advances.

 

Russian attempts to move large numbers of troops into combat positions have also been thwarted by Ukrainian drones, which continue to hamper logistical and tactical coordination on the ground.

“Russia does not have any big military victories on the frontline, so they want to give the impression that there are huge movements and advantages,” said Dmytro Zhmailo, head of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation. “We do not see this on the ground..”

John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said there has been a temporary “spike in offensive tempo,” but described the gains as minimal.

“They can chop a hole in the Ukrainian line,” he said, “but they’re not able to punch through that hole and achieve a rapid, operational, significant breakthrough.”

Sumy remains a possible vulnerability — but Russians are under-equipped

Analysts warn that a Russian incursion into Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy Oblast remains possible, especially as Ukrainian troops reposition in the area following recent Russian activity in neighboring Kursk Oblast. However, Russia would likely only be able to send small infantry units without significant equipment support.

Hardie emphasized that Russia is facing growing shortages in military hardware.

“I expect by the end of this year, they’ll be really struggling to pull more, if not that, then they’ll be completely exhausted.,” he said.

While troop numbers remain one of Russia’s key advantages, analysts noted that the soldiers being sent into battle are woefully undertrained — often receiving less than a month, and in some cases just a few days, of preparation.

“That’s the conscious choice that Russia is making to keep the pressure on Ukraine,” Hardie added. “To throw these troops into the proverbial meat grinder without taking the time to invest in rebuilding force quality while the war continues.”

Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, have been expanding and improving their top drone units, and experts say they’ve “adapted well to the way Russia fights.”

What we know about the expected Russian offensive

In late March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the Russian army was preparing for new assaults in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, likely to begin in April or May.

On April 9, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Russia had already effectively launched its offensive in those regions. Ukraine’s General Staff later clarified that Syrskyi’s statement was a “statement of fact,” not a reason for panic or sensationalism.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia’s actions in Sumy suggest an attempt to create a “buffer zone” along the border and potentially place artillery close enough to the city of Sumy to make it unlivable for civilians.

However, as of April 11, Sumy Oblast Governor Volodymyr Artiukh said there were no Russian troops inside the region. Meanwhile, BBC News Ukraine, citing sources in Ukraine’s General Staff, reported that the military is deploying reinforcements to the Sumy direction to strengthen defensive positions.