A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

May 24, 2025

Because of AI And Despite Pressure, Apple Will Never Make Most iPhones In US

There are two major reasons why, despite White House pressure, Apple will never make the majority of its iPhones in the US. 

First, Chinese factories have been building the iPhone for 20 years. There is an infrastructure, supply chain, thousands of engineers and skilled workers that cannot be replaced in the US. The economics of such a move would be financially disastrous. But secondly, even if Apple were inclined to try, the growth of AI means that there probably won't even be an iPhone in 10 years, because new devices will emerge to more productively utilize AI's power. So neither the short or long term economics of making iPhones in the US make any sense. JL

Tripp Mickle reports in the New York Times:

80% of iPhones are still made in China. Apple could make iPhones in the US. But doing so would be expensive, difficult and force the company to double iPhone prices to $2,000 or more. Apple would have to buy new machines and rely on more automation than in China because the U.S. population is so much smaller. “(China has) sophisticated factories with thousands of engineers and skilled workers. You can’t just pick it up and move it.”  Supply chain experts say shifting iPhone production to the US would be foolish. The iPhone is nearly 20 years old. People may not need an iPhone in 10 years because it could be replaced by a new device built for AI. As a result, Apple would invest a lot of money that it wouldn’t be able to recoup. “It is absurd. In the short term, it’s not economically feasible.”

President Trump went on the offensive against Apple on Friday, demanding that the company begin making iPhones in the United States or pay tariffs of at least 25 percent on iPhones made abroad.

The ultimatum is the latest in a decade-long push to get the technology giant to move its supply chain. When he first ran for president in 2016, Mr. Trump promised voters that he would “get Apple to start building their damn computers and things in this country instead of other countries.”

But instead of bringing its manufacturing home, Apple has shifted production from China to other countries across Asia, including India, Vietnam and Thailand. Almost nothing is made in America, and an estimated 80 percent of iPhones are still made in China.

Yes. Apple could make iPhones in the United States. But doing so would be expensive and difficult and force the company to more than double iPhone prices to $2,000 or more, said Wayne Lam, an analyst with TechInsights, a market research firm. Apple would have to buy new machines and rely on more automation than it uses in China because the U.S. population is so much smaller, Mr. Lam said. “It is absurd,” he said. “In the short term, it’s not economically feasible.”

There would be some benefits to moving the supply chain, including reducing the environmental costs of shipping products from abroad, said Matthew Moore, who spent nine years as a manufacturing design manager at Apple. But the upsides would be trivial compared with the challenges that would have to be overcome.

Supply chain experts say shifting iPhone production to the United States in 2025 would be foolish. The iPhone is nearly 20 years old. Apple’s top executives have said people may not need an iPhone in 10 years because it could be replaced by a new device built for artificial intelligence. As a result, Apple would invest a lot of money that it wouldn’t be able to recoup, Mr. Lam said.

“I would be surprised if there’s an iPhone 29,” he said, noting that Apple is trying to disrupt the iPhone by making augmented reality products like the Vision Pro.

Apple also had a bad experience when it began assembling Mac desktop computers in the United States in 2013. The company had to temporarily stop production when employees walked off the assembly line at the end of their shift but before their replacements arrived. And it struggled to find a supplier that could make enough of the tiny, custom screws it needed. 

In 2019, Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, gave Mr. Trump a tour of the Texas plant. But recent labels on the computer say the Mac Pro assembled there is a product of ThailandSmall hands, a massive, seasonal work force and millions of engineers.

Young Chinese women have small fingers, and that has made them a valuable contributor to iPhone production because they are more nimble at installing screws and other miniature parts in the small device, supply chain experts said. In a recent analysis the company did to explore the feasibility of moving production to the United States, the company determined that it couldn’t find people with those skills in the United States, said two people familiar with the analysis who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

China has millions of people who migrate around the country to work in factories as Apple revs up production around a new iPhone. They often work from the summer until Chinese New Year, when production slows down, so Apple’s suppliers don’t have to pay them for a full year of work. They live in dormitories connected to factories with assembly lines longer than a football field, clustered nearby component suppliers.

China has a deep bench of engineering talent. In 2017, Mr. Cook said the country had enough tooling engineers to fill multiple football fields, while the United States barely had enough to fill a room.

“These are sophisticated factories with thousands and thousands and thousands of engineers,” Mr. Moore said. “You can’t just pick it up and move it.” 

Apple began revving up production of iPhones in India to avoid local taxes on importing iPhones from China. At the time, India was emerging as the world’s second-largest smartphone market behind China. Apple wanted to increase its sales there but couldn’t offer competitively priced iPhones without starting production inside the country.

In many ways, India looks much like China did two decades ago. It has a huge pool of engineers, and the country has offered factories subsidies that help limit what Apple has to spend to support manufacturing there.

Not really. Apple still puts together most of the complex components inside an iPhone in China, including displays and modules for its Face ID technology. Those components, which have gone through a process called subassembly, are shipped to India, where they are bundled into an iPhone like Lego bricks. The result is a final product that can claim to be assembled in India, even if much of the work was done in China.

In the process, Apple avoids U.S. tariffs, but the dependency on China remains.

0 comments:

Post a Comment