Putin Rejects Ukraine Peace Because He Claims He's Winning. His Military Says Not

European leaders are reporting that President Trump admitted in a phone call with them what knowledgeable experts could see: that Putin has no interest in a ceasefire or peace in Ukraine. 

But, of equal interest, the reason given is that Putin claims he is winning. The problem with that is that most military and civilian observers say that is patently false and  the data support their point of view. Most shockingly, the Russian military are privately and quietly acknowledging that Putin's goals are 'unachievable.' The pace of Russian advances has slowed to a third of what they were just six months ago while casualties have risen to the highest of the war. Though Russia could probably keep this up for some months, Ukraine's performance suggests it can continue to resist without fear of Russian breakthroughs. JL 

Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and Kyiv Post report:

In a phone call with European leaders Monday, the US President acknowledged the Kremlin doesn’t want peace in Ukraine because it believes Russia is winning. (But) a Bloomberg report says statistics do not support Putin’s optimism; that despite the numerical advantage Russia’s forces enjoy, they remain a long way from achieving Putin’s aims. Moscow’s military (privately) consider the goals set by the Kremlin to be unachievable, saying they have only “minor tactical success” at a high price in killed and wounded despite claims made by their leader. In 2025, the data show Russia's pace of advance is less than a third of that achieved at the end of 2024. Russia currently occupies less than 20% of Ukraine’s territory, less than the 30% it captured in the first months of its invasion.

Following his two-hour phone call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, which he described as “excellent,” Donald Trump seems to have finally admitted that the Kremlin doesn’t want peace in Ukraine because it believes Russia is winning the war.

According to the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday Trump made the admission in a phone call with European leaders on Monday – the first time the US President acknowledged Putin’s true position. Also during that call he reportedly rowed back on earlier assertions that he would consider imposing further sanctions on Russia if it did not seek peace.

Path to Victory or Delusion?

On Tuesday during his visit to Russia’s Kursk region Putin once again voiced his view that he was winning the war, outlining plans to seize and annex Ukraine’s Sumy region which is adjacent to Kursk – a boast the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on Wednesday was currently unachievable.

 

During the May 16 talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, it was clear that one of Putin’s continuing demands was for Ukraine to cede full control over four partially occupied Ukrainian regions – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – which he still believes he will seize in any event before the end of the year.

A Bloomberg report on Wednesday said the statistics did not support Putin’s optimism. Citing data from a DeepState analysis it says that despite the numerical advantage Russia’s forces enjoy, they remain a long way from achieving Putin’s stated aims.

 

Since January, despite a claimed upsurge in its offensive, Russian forces have taken the equivalent of around only 0.15% of Ukraine’s territory. The data show its pace of advance is less than a third of that achieved at the end of 2024 falling from about 125 square kilometers (48 square miles) to 41 square kilometers (16 square miles) a week.

Bloomberg sources, said to be close to Russia’s Ministry of Defense, say that even Moscow’s military consider the goals that have been set by the Kremlin to be unachievable. They say that they have only enjoyed “minor tactical success” despite the claims made by their leadership.

 

In particular Ukraine’s widespread use of multi-level defensive positions supplemented by drones are not only making large-scale offensive operations increasingly difficult but are also proving costly in terms of personnel and equipment losses – a view shared by most Western military analysts.

The majority of Moscow’s politicians still support Putin’s analysis, at least publicly. During the May 16 Istanbul talks the head of Russia’s delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, not only demanded that Ukraine should withdraw its troops from all of the territories of the four regions to which Russia lays claim but declared that the Russian Federation was ready to “fight endlessly” to achieve its goals.

ISW analysis says that Russia is currently occupying less than 20% of Ukraine’s territory, a figure that also includes occupied Crimea and the so-call Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics. That is now considerably less than the almost 30% it had captured in the first couple of months of its 2022 full-scale invasion.

 

Even this “success” has come at a high price. According to the ISW, Russia has lost more than 400,000 killed and wounded – more than 100 casualties for every square kilometer captured. It added further that in the last three months of Moscow achieved more than half of its gains for the year at the cost of more than 125,000 troops.