The Reason Ukraine Re-Invaded Kursk 4 Days Before Moscow's V-Day Parade

Ukrainian forces re-invaded Russia's Kursk oblast on May 5, four days before the Kremlin's annual Victory Day parade. 

The Ukrainian offensive has two purposes: the first, military, reason is to force Russia to keep troops deployed in Kursk rather than moving them to other sectors of the front. The second reason is that it embarrasses Putin and serves as a reminder that the Russian military is weak and ineffectual, despite Kremlin posturing about how they are 'winning.' JL

Serhiy Zgurets reports in Espreso Global:

On May 5, Ukrainian forces attacked from the north and south of Tyotkino in the Kursk region, as well as near the village of Novyi Put. The Ukrainians are imposing their own rules on the Russians. The Ukrainian military is trying to isolate the Russian units near the village of Tyotkino and in the Hlushkivskyi district of Kursk. A Russian UAV control center in Tyotkino was hit by airstrikes. The strike killed 20 Russian soldiers. Russia will be forced to disperse its forces, and its plans have been disrupted. This could reduce Russia’s ability to secure areas bordering Sumy. (And) to show that on Russia’s Victory Day in parades on Red Square, Russia is incapable of defending its own territory. 

On May 5, the Ukrainian forces carried out offensive actions in several directions: from the north and south of Tyotkino toward the Kursk region, as well as in the area of the settlement of Novy Put

Frontline situation

For the third day in a row, the intensity of hostilities remains extremely high. The number of combat engagements exceeds 200 per day. Over the past day, May 5, 78 clashes were registered in the Pokrovsk sector, which is the highest number of attacks we have repelled in this area over the entire year. Today, General Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, noted that the situation in the Pokrovsk sector has been stabilized and in some places the tactical initiative has been seized.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also imposing their own rules of the game on the Russians in the Kursk region. The Ukrainian military is trying to isolate the Russian army units near the village of Tyotkino and in the entire Hlushkivskyi district of Kursk region. This conclusion was made today by experts from ISW, the American Institute for the Study of War. I think this is a bit of an exaggeration, but there is some truth in such assessments.

 

What do we know today on the second day of hostilities? It is known that on May 5, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked in several directions: from the north and south of Tyotkino in the direction of the Kursk region, as well as near the village of Novyi Put. There is a video from Russian channels that shows our units and engineering equipment advancing through the fortifications built by the Russians, and then how our infantrymen act, going deeper into the rear of Russian territory.

We know that the Ukrainian Armed Forces recently struck a bridge over the Seim River. It was a bridge that the Russian forces used for logistics. Probably, the restriction of this logistics was the reason for the American experts to conclude that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to isolate Russian units in the Glushkovo area.

It is also known that a Russian UAV control center in Tyotkino was hit by airstrikes. The strike killed 20 Russian soldiers. All these actions are indeed shaping a new backdrop in the confrontation with Russia.

The question arises - what is the goal of this operation, raid, or offensive action? I would name three reasons behind it - both military and political. On the military side, it's worth recalling that after our forces withdrew from the Kursk region, the enemy began attempting offensive actions to establish a foothold - a security buffer - in the Sumy region. Currently, Russian forces are known to control Zhuravka, Veselivka, Novenke, and Basivka. They are also trying to advance toward the village of Yunakivka, which lies on the road between Sudzha and Sumy and holds key logistical importance.

It can be assumed that the Russians are indeed focused on creating a buffer zone. On our side, both frontal counterattacks and more effective surprise strikes are possible. This is exactly how Ukrainian forces operated in the Belgorod region, forcing the occupiers to redeploy troops there.

Now, after the actions in the Belgorod region, a new chapter has opened in Kursk. We understand that the enemy will be forced to disperse its forces, and its plans have been disrupted. This could indeed reduce Russia’s ability and effectiveness in securing areas bordering Sumy.

The second reason is the possible announcement of a ceasefire ahead of Russia’s Victory Day celebrations, although the Ukrainian side has not agreed to it. The concern is that Russia could use such a ceasefire to redeploy its units from the Kursk region to other parts of the front, using the truce as cover.

The informational and political aspect is also important. Its essence is to show that on Russia’s Victory Day and during parades on Red Square, Russia is actually incapable of defending its own territory. Claims that Ukrainian forces were completely pushed out of the Kursk region are false. This is a slap in the face to Russia’s entire military and political leadership. Nevertheless, the primary goals of the operation remain military.

We understand that the potential for offensive actions can only be realized if sufficient forces and resources are available. Fighting will continue in this sector of the front. At the moment, limited information prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. I believe the situation will become clearer in a day or two.