Was This the Week Putin Badly Miscalculated?

With renewed arms shipments from the US to Ukraine, lots of negative commentary about Russian military capabilities from US politicians and all in addition to Ukraine's bold refusal to guarantee the safety of anyone - including heads of state - attending Moscow's annual Victory Day parade, there are signs that Putin's may have miscalculated his chances in Ukraine as well as his putative hold over the White House. 

The US administration offered Putin everything he could have wanted short of complete Ukrainian capitulation. But he turned the deal down, and not especially politely. This could be a scripted kabuki-like ploy to convince the world that they disagree in order to make the US look better in the short term. But it is more likely that Putin thought he had a deal, whereas if the world has learned anything over the past hundred days, it is that all deals require further concessions - and no deal is final. Especially when your army continues to underperform on the ground. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Putin made a serious miscalculation (because he believed he had the USA in the bag). Trump offered him everything he could have wanted, and Putin seems to have rashly turned it down. In doing so Putin might very well have miscalculated about Russian strength, how far the US will go to help him, and the state of Ukraine. It could be a fateful error. The Russians then turned around and made a preposterous suggestion that, as a sign of goodwill, Ukraine and Russia should undertake a three day ceasefire starting May 8. This was the most self-serving of gestures as it would allow Putin to hold his Victory Day Parade on May 9th in Red Square without fear of Ukrainian long-range attack. The Ukrainians refused to guarantee the safety of anyone attending the parade. 

If you read much of the press in Europe you will think that Trump underwent a 180 degree change in the last few days—leaving Putin in the dust and pivoting towards Ukraine. This is, of course, dangerous thinking, particularly in Europe. Many European leaders are looking for any signs, however small, to not take the needed steps for the continent to look after itself and Ukraine and to once again let the USA do all the real work for them.

 

That being said the big story of the week might not be a change in Trump, but actually that Putin made a serious miscalculation (because he believed he had the USA in the bag). Trump offered him everything he could have wanted, and Putin seems to have rashly turned it down.

Also, there were a host of other stories that impact on the war. I will mention two, the best test to have to see if the USA is actually changing stance, and the Russian attempt to get a 3-day ceasefire to protect the Victory Day Parade, Putin’s high point of the year. If he cannot guarantee security for that, its worth comment.

So here we go:

Was This The Week Putin Miscalculated?

Vladimir Putin is both a catastrophe as a war leader but also a frightening success. He has mostly been a disaster for Russia (and certainly for Ukraine) unleashing a war that he did not understand, inflicting and taking massive losses that have erased almost all of Russia’s pre-2022 land forces, militarizing his economy in such a way that it is utterly dependent on China, and leaving him isolated in Europe. Had the USA remained firm in support for Ukraine, he would be on his way to a major defeat and he would be viewed as one of the worst war leaders in history.

Was This The Week That Putin Badly Micalculated?

However he has been a notable success in perverting or co-opting the political leaderships of countries that should be his enemies. In Europe he has helped implant Viktor Orban and Robert Fico as Russian stalking horses in Hungary and Slovakia. And he might be about to have another great success in putting a candidate in charge of Rumania and possibly Bulgaria. People are not talking about this enough, if you have pro-Putin governments in Rumania and Bulgaria, the situation for Ukraine in the Black Sea becomes really unsettled. Right now merchant ships leaving Odesa make a run to Rumanian and Bulgarian waters, where the Russians wont attack them. If the Rumanians and Bulgarians (even just the Rumanians) close their waters to ships from Ukraine—that is a major problem.

And of course he has helped put Donald Trump in charge of the USA—which is the most stupendous Russian strategic victory of the last 150 years.

So as a war leader he is a contrast of extremes. This week might have been another. Basically, Donald Trump and his team handed Putin on a plate a close-to-ideal ceasefire plan for Putin—and the Russian leader did not say yes. In doing so Putin might very well have miscalculated about Russian strength, how far the US will go to help him, and the state of Ukraine. It could be a fateful error.

The elements of the Trump plan for Russia were so generous to Putin, that its slightly baffling that the Russian dictator did not take them up immediately—particularly as the one thing he seemed to have to agree to get all these goodies was a cease-fire for 30 days or so (which the Russian military needs btw). What Trump was offering him was extraordinary when you consider it as a package:

• US de jure recognition of the illegal Russian annexation of Crimea.

• US de facto recognition of all other Russian conquests

• A plan to quickly relax or even end sanctions on the Russian economy

• The return of seized Russian assets (at least those under US control)

• A pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO

• No other substantial US security commitment for Ukraine.

The Crimea point alone was a massive concession to Putin. If the USA recognizes Russian legal control of Crimea, you can be sure that much of the rest of the world outside of Europe (and that includes China) would do so as well. It would legalize in much of the world changing borders in Europe through invasion.

And to get this great deal, arguably Putin only had to agree to something that the Russian military needs, a ceasefire for an extended period. A strategic war leaders would, one would have thought, jumped at the plan. Indeed, the sanctions relaxation alone along with a ceasefire would have been a medium-term win for Russia.

However, Putin rejected the deal—foolishly. In doing so, he has thrown away the chance to legalize and consolidate his seizures and rebuild (and cement his close relationship with Trump). Why he did this is not something that I am expert enough a Russianist to say. It seems profoundly stupid to me. My only guess is that he thinks his military is stronger than it is, thinks Ukraine is weaker than it is, believes that European states will not fully aid Ukraine, and, crucially, thought the USA was now so close to him that he could count on US support regardless of what he decided.

If so, he has taken a great risk.

Now, I am not one to say that the USA is now Ukraine’s friend. It is not under Trump and almost certainly will not become one. However Ukraine does not need the USA to be a great friend to strategically succeed. What Ukraine needs is the USA to sell it weapons, the USA not to relax sanctions on Russia, and the USA not to stand in the way of European states in their quest to aid Ukraine. If in rejecting Trump’s deal, Putin brings such a situation about, he has made a major mistake.

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The Best Test Of Change

The news stories have been extreme (as always) and arguably dangerous. These are the stories that argue that Trump has made some major pivot towards Ukraine. There is precious little sign of this, and even reporting stories in this way is a dangerous thing to do, particularly in Europe. As I mentioned above, many European states are desperate for any signs that Trump will stand by Ukraine and commit to European defense, because that means European states can continue to slow-walk necessary changes, not have to think for themselves, and stick their heads further and further into the sand.

I do not believe that the $350 million in military sales to Ukraine announced by the USA in the last few days are particularly important. They would have been put into motion while Trump was negotiating his great deal for Putin, and represent within the context of this war a very small amount of support. Plus they are not of certain systems that Ukraine desperately needs right now. Remember, Ukraine asked to purchase $50billion of weapons a few weeks ago—and what they have been offered in value terms is about five percent of that.

The US has also not agreed to give Ukraine the Patriot anti-air missiles it desperately needs of which is it running out. One of the reasons the Russians are flooding Ukrainian skies with drones and missiles now is to try and make the Ukrainians run out of Patriots—and sadly they seem to be having some success. The scale of Russian long-range attacks is growing relentlessly. The Ukrainians recently calculated that since late March, the Russians have launched approximately 200 missiles and 3000 shaheds in their attacks.

Its notable that as these attacks pick up there are more and more stories of Russian strikes actually hitting Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital which is always protected by some Patriots. Last night, for instance, there was another massive Russian attack on Kyiv and a number of Russian UAVs penetrated Ukrainian air defense.

A Patriot Missile Being Fired—Just One Missile Costs $4million

If the US continues to refuse to sell more Patriot missiles to Ukraine then really nothing has changed and the US is helping Russia in this campaign. It means that Trump remains happy to help Russia continue to kill Ukrainians and be a strategic asset to the Russian military. The last time the Ukrainians made a large pitch for more Patriots, Trump went so far as to mock their request. After another large Russian ranged attack on Ukrainian cities just over two weeks ago, Trump said that the Ukrainians had brought this on themselves.

"You don't start a war against someone 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles,"

So, unless the US pivots now and starts selling large quantities (a handful wont matter) of Patriot missiles then I remain deeply skeptical that we are seeing any real change. And to tell you how much that would cost a whole new Patriot battery is about $1 billion and each individual missile is about $4 million. In other words, if the whole $50 million weapons sale package for Ukraine announced earlier in the week was just Patriot missiles (and it wasnt)—it would have covered the cost of a whopping 12. That amount could be used up in one night.

So Patriots remain the great test of Trump administration intentions.

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The Victory Day Russian Misfire

Having turned down Trump’s great deal which included a longer ceasefire, the Russians then turned around and made a preposterous suggestion that, as a sign of goodwill, Ukraine and Russia should undertake a three day ceasefire starting May 8. This was the most self-serving of goodwill gestures as a short ceasefire over those days would help Putin a great deal. It would allow the Russian military to have a few days to reset itself—but more importantly, it would allow Putin to hold his Victory Day Parade on May 9th in Red Square without fear of Ukrainian long-range attack.

Russia’s Victory Day Parade In 2020—Before They Had To Worry About Ukrainian Air Power

For those who do not know—this parade is arguably the most important annual public spectacle that Putin holds. It is a parade to mark the allied victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, and allows Putin to claim that Russia/the USSR played the greatest role in defeating the Nazis, while showcasing Russian military strength today.

It also involves a regular parade of friendly world leaders to Moscow to witness the event—and this year was going to be one of the biggest since the full-scale invasion. The Russians were making great play of this a few days ago—releasing statements about the impressiveness of the guest list (which includes Chinese president Xo Jinping). Here is a Russian story about it.

Among the confirmed guests for Victory Day over Fascism in Moscow are the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić; the President of the Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik; the President of China, Xi Jinping; the President of Slovakia, Robert Fico; the President of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko; the President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro; and the President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, among others, as reported by the Russian portal RBC. The parade will also be attended by the presidents of Burkina Faso, Vietnam, Cuba, Abkhazia, Azerbaijan, Palestine, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Armenia.

The problem Putin did not fully account for when the boasting started is that he cannot fully guarantee the safety of those leaders. Russian air defense has been, in a word, porous. Any large Ukrainian strike during the parade would have the chance of getting at least a small number of drones through the Russian defensive screen.

The Ukrainians, wisely, have so far refused to do Putin’s dirty work for him. Yesterday, they publicly refused the 3-day ceasefire offer and made it clear that they cannot guarantee the safety of any leader who is in Moscow. Needless to say, the Russian response was full of bluster and condemnation—but that is a sign of their frustration more than anything else. Remember, the Russians were more than happy a year ago to endanger the life of the Greek Prime Minister in one of their attempts to get Zelensky with a missile attack. Its not like they can complain if the Ukrainians attack Putin from the air now—this is war.

The Russian misfire is already causing problems for them. Amazingly, there are reports circulating that both the Serbian and Slovakian presidents have come down with some unexplained illness, and might not be able to make the visit. Astonishing coincidence that.

This parade holds out the chance of being a nerve-wracking debacle for Russia and also highlights what a stupid and disastrous war we are in. We are now in the 39th month of a war (the full-scale invasion) that was supposed to last a few days or at most weeks. And after more than 3 years, almost a million of Russian casualties, the destruction of tens of thousands of military vehicles, etc, Putin is worried that Ukrainian long-range airpower might disrupt his showpiece event.

If the US has stayed true to Ukraine, Russia was on a course to total strategic failure.