50% of Russian Planes Hit In Ukraine's Cobweb Attack Deemed "Beyond Repair"
As more information becomes available, the scale of Ukraine's Operation Cobweb against Russia's strategic bomber command reveals the scale of the devastation.
Approximately 50% of the planes hit cannot be restored and the remainder may take years to fix though some will be have to be used for spare parts. One of the reasons for the scope of the destruction is that a number of the bombers struck were already loaded with cruise missiles which exploded with catastrophic results when the planes carrying them were hit, amplifying the damage. JL
Thomas Newdick reports in The Drive Warzone and New Voice of Ukraine reports:
The special operation resulted in the destruction of strategic Russian aviation worth $7 billion. 34% of strategic cruise missile carriers at Russia’s main airfields were hit. "Half of them cannot be restored, and some will take years to restore, if they can be restored at all."New video confirms that several of the Tu-95MS bombers were already loaded with Kh-101 conventionally armed cruise missiles, ready for launch against Ukraine
New satellite imagery and an official video have revealed more about the scale of destruction and damage inflicted on Russian airfields in Ukraine’s unprecedented drone attacks last weekend. Today, the Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, which carried out the drone attacks, published previously unreleased drone footage showing the raid underway. At the same time as the SBU video was released, Ukraine also announced more details of the drone attacks, which were carried out under Operation Spiderweb.
"Half of them cannot be restored, and some will take years to restore, if they can be restored at all. Indeed, a fair military goal,”
The SBU reported that the special operation resulted in the destruction of strategic Russian aviation worth $7 billion. The agency also noted that 34% of strategic cruise missile carriers at Russia’s main airfields were hit.
Later, sources in the special services clarified that 41 Russian strategic aviation aircraft had been destroyed as part of the operation. They confirmed that President Zelenskyy personally supervised the mission, with Malyuk and the SBU team carrying it out.
A Ukrainian PFV-type drone perspective of a Tu-22M3 and, behind it, an Il-78M Midas aerial refueling tanker. SBU screencapFront view of a Tu-22M3. SBU screencap
The SBU claims that its drones used artificial intelligence (AI) during at least some aspects of the operation. “During the operation, modern UAV control technology was used, which combines autonomous artificial intelligence algorithms and manual operator intervention,” the SBU said. “In particular, some UAVs, due to signal loss, switched to performing the mission using artificial intelligence along a pre-planned route. After approaching and contacting a specifically designated target, the warhead was automatically triggered.”
While we cannot confirm this, TWZ has, in the past, detailed exactly how AI can be harnessed for lower-end drones.
Initially, Ukrainian authorities claimed to have hit 41 aircraft, in total, including Tu-95MS Bear-H and Tu-22M3 Backfire-C bombers, as well as A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control aircraft. However, these were clearly not all destroyed or even damaged.
Subsequently, Andriy Kovalenko, an official with Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said that “at least 13 Russian aircraft were destroyed.”
Among those aircraft, the new video confirms that several of the Tu-95MS bombers were already loaded with Kh-101 conventionally armed cruise missiles, ready for launch against Ukraine, as seen in the image below. This fact underlines how big a threat these aircraft are to Ukraine and reinforces the fact that they are legitimate targets.
Rear view of a Tu-95MS with a Kh-101 cruise missile loaded under the wing. SBU screencap
Now, with the new satellite imagery, verification of at least some of these previous claims is becoming somewhat easier. Here’s what we know so far for each of the airfields targeted:
Belaya Air Base
Soon after the drone strikes, ground-level videos of Belaya, which is situated in Russia’s eastern Irkutsk region, began to appear online, showing smoke rising from the base, confirming that at least something was hit.
Thereafter, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite imagery obtained by TWZ from the U.S.-based ICEYE US pointed to at least four Tu-95MS bombers having been destroyed or at least damaged at Belaya. However, the resolution and the nature of SAR, which does not show the same kinds of details that would be available in visual spectrum imagery, made it difficult to definitively determine the state of any of the aircraft. That has since changed.
Now, with new satellite imagery from Maxar, we can clearly see the remains of three destroyed Tu-95MS and four destroyed Tu-22M3 bombers at Belaya. While we cannot be certain of the operational status of the aircraft that were destroyed, most were arranged along the flight line or in blast pens among active aircraft, so there’s a high possibility that these were frontline assets.
On June 1, video footage emerged showing Olenya, located in far northwestern Russia near the Barents Sea, from the perspective of cameras on first-person-view (FPV) type drones. This earlier footage suggested that Olenya was among the hardest-hit bases, with the drone videos showing that Tu-95MS bombers and an An-12 Cub cargo aircraft had been targeted.
A Ukrainian PFV-type drone perspective of an An-12 SBU screencap
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A satellite image of Olenya taken on June 3 from Planet Labs appeared to show three Tu-95MS and one An-12 damaged and/or destroyed, but was too low-resolution to be conclusive.
Now, additional satellite imagery from Airbus Defense and Space, Maxar, and Planet Labs provides a better understanding of the destruction at Olenya, with telltale burn marks on the tarmac consistent with the destruction of five aircraft, at least three of which can be confirmed as Tu-95MS bombers.
At opposite ends of the same flight line are further scorch marks, as seen in the oblique image in the embedded tweet below. Here, the nearest aircraft destroyed was likely the An-12, supported by a comparison with previous satellite imagery showing the transport intact in this location. It’s not clear what aircraft might have been targeted at the other end of the flight line from the An-12 (the area seen at the very top of the frame in the oblique image). The most likely candidate is another Tu-95MS, which would appear to be consistent with some of the original video footage from the attack.
Ivanovo Air Base
Clear satellite imagery that might definitely show damage to aircraft at Ivanovo has yet to emerge, although a video released today by the SBU shows two A-50 being targeted. The location was presumably Ivanovo, where these radar planes are home-based.
Based on lower-resolution satellite imagery, there have been claims that two A-50s were at least hit at Ivanovo, although it’s by no means certain that this is the case. If the aircraft were hit, there is currently no evidence that they were destroyed outright.
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At the same time, it’s worth bearing in mind that Russia’s fleet of A-50s — two examples of which have already been destroyed in the air by Ukraine — normally conducts its wartime operations from forward bases closer to Ukraine. While A-50s rotate in and out of Ivanovo periodically, examples that might have been hit there could also be inactive aircraft, which are known to be stored at the base.
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Indeed, the aircraft seen in the SBU video may well have been non-operational, with highly weathered radomes, while at least one aircraft doesn’t have a full set of engines fitted.
A Ukrainian PFV-type drone perspective of the A-50s that were attacked. It is very possible that neither of these aircraft was in active service, with evidence of missing engines. SBU screencap
Prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia was estimated to have nine A-50s, including a number of modernized A-50Us, in active service. As well as the two combat losses since then, one of these aircraft was damaged in a drone attack while on the ground at a base in Belarus, and its current status is unknown. Any further losses to the A-50 fleet will be very keenly felt.
Dyagilevo Air Base
A high-resolution satellite image of Dyagilevo from Planet Labs, taken on June 2 and reviewed by TWZ, showed no obvious signs of damage to any aircraft there. Still, some aircraft may have been damaged by shrapnel, against which relatively thin-skinned aircraft are notably vulnerable, and this would not necessarily be visible even in higher-resolution imagery.
Ukrainka Air Base
Clear satellite imagery showing potential damage to aircraft at Ukrainka is yet to emerge. What little visual evidence we have of this airfield after the drone strikes is inconclusive, although there are claims, at least, of a single Tu-95MS having been hit. For now, these claims need to be treated with caution.
It’s also worth noting that the tires, frequently scattered over the wings and upper fuselages of Russian bombers and other combat aircraft, and which are employed in this manner to confuse image-matching seekers on incoming munitions, appear to have been misidentified by some observers as evidence of damage or scorch marks.
A Ukrainian PFV-type drone perspective of a Tu-22M3 with tires and rubber matting on the wings. SBU screencap
While cloud cover has hindered the opportunity for more rapid and verifiable analysis of the results of Operation Spiderweb, we can now say, with certainty, that at least six (and more likely seven) Tu-95MS and four Tu-22M3 bombers were destroyed. While far short of some of the earlier Ukrainian claims, this still represents a significant loss to Russia, not least because it’s impossible to replace the Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3, both of which have been out of production for decades, as you can read more about here.
While the new SBU video shows multiple drones landing on their targets before presumably exploding, it is possible that some made it to their final destinations and failed to detonate.
Additional satellite imagery could well reveal more aircraft destroyed or damaged, although, with each passing day, Russia is better able to conceal the results of the raid, disposing of wreckage and moving aircraft around to make it that much harder to create an accurate tally.
At the same time, Russian aircrews are already making clear their reaction to the drone strikes, referencing the destroyed aircraft in the form of slogans on glide bombs launched by tactical combat aircraft, as seen below:
Whatever the final losses to the Russian Aerospace Forces, the Ukrainian drone strike will also have sent a shockwave all the way to the top of the Russian leadership, as well as military planners around the globe. The carefully planned operation visibly exposed the vulnerability of some of Russia’s prime strategic assets. For now, at least, there appears to be no quick-fix solution to protecting these high-value aircraft. This may well force Russia toward an even more highly dispersed positioning model, which will severely limit the bombers’ effectiveness for Ukraine operations.
As a Partner and Co-Founder of Predictiv and PredictivAsia, Jon specializes in management performance and organizational effectiveness for both domestic and international clients. He is an editor and author whose works include Invisible Advantage: How Intangilbles are Driving Business Performance. Learn more...
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