Illusion of Power: Ukraine's Recent Successes Show US Has Fewer "Cards"

Since Trump's Oval Office ambush of President Zelensky, Ukraine has demonstrated it actually has quite a few cards and that the US has fewer of them. 

Russia has flatly rejected US entreaties to negotiate, which, despite the global perception of disrespect, the White House has tried to paper over as a minor negotiating tactic. Germany specifically - and Europe more generally - have increased aid to Ukraine, appearing determined to fill the breach left by US favoritism for a putative authoritarian ally. And on the battlefield, despite the annual rumblings about yet another fearsome Russian offensive - all of whose predecessors have come to naught, Ukraine has limited Russian gains to less than 1% of additional territory while inflicting casualties so massive that the Kremlin's troops are attacking on electric scooters. In effect, Ukraine has called the US bluff and will defend its interests as it sees fit. JL

German Lopez reports in the New York Times:

Trump told Ukraine’s Zelensky, “You don’t have the cards.” Last week, Zelensky demonstrated Ukraine does have cards. It launched drones across Russia that blew up airfields and bombers, an attack Russians compared to Pearl Harbor. Ukraine operated alone; it didn’t give Trump a heads-up. (And) Ukraine got Germany to promise $5.7 billion in new military aid. Zelensky has cajoled Europe to step up as Trump has suggested backing out. The world has moved on. Countries don’t treat the US as a superpower to appease but as another factor among many. America no longer has all of the cards, and other nations have learned they can call its bluff. This adds up to a message: Ukraine can act on its own, and has options. It doesn’t need to go against its interests to appease the US.

President Trump returned to the White House with big promises on foreign policy. He would get a peace deal in Ukraine within 24 hours. An agreement between Israel and Hamas would follow. China would stop taking advantage of the United States on trade. For that matter, Europe, Japan and the rest of the world would stop, too.

Things have not worked out as promised. Trump has not ended any wars. His only trade deal to this point is a limited, and temporary, one with Britain. His administration has claimed progress in nuclear talks with Iran, but so far they have produced no agreement. It’s still early in his term, but he has failed to meet the extremely high expectations he set for himself. Why? The United States may not have as much leverage as Trump believed.

Overplayed hands

Consider Trump’s troubles in Ukraine. He once told Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, “You don’t have the cards.” Ukraine is so dependent on the United States, Trump suggested, that he can demand anything he wants.

Yet Zelensky stood his ground. He rejected a peace proposal from the Trump administration that would force Ukraine to give up nearly 20 percent of its territory and its chances of joining NATO. And Zelensky’s concessions either work in his favor (accepting a full cease-fire) or don’t mean as much in the face of his country’s extinction (giving the United States access to some minerals).

In the Oval Office. Doug Mills/The New York Times

Last week, Zelensky demonstrated that Ukraine does have some cards. It covertly launched drones across Russia that blew up airfields and bombers — an attack that Russian bloggers compared to Pearl Harbor. Ukraine operated alone; it didn’t give Trump a heads-up. Separately, Ukraine got Germany to promise more military support, including $5.7 billion in new aid. Zelensky has cajoled European leaders to step up as Trump has suggested backing out of Ukraine.

All of this adds up to a sort of message: Ukraine can act on its own, and it has other options. It doesn’t need to go against its interests to appease the United States.

This story, of America’s insufficient leverage, repeats with issue after issue. Russia has rejected Trump’s friendly overtures, continued to align with China and launched new salvos in Ukraine. China believes it can win a trade war. Europe levied counter-tariffs. Israel has prioritized its desire to crush Hamas over keeping Trump happy. Even a decimated Hamas has refused to go along with America’s proposed peace terms.

New era

Trump grew up when America’s world dominance was unquestioned. His aggressive “America First” approach seems ripped from the Cold War, in which the United States could push around other nations and bend the global order to its terms.

But the world has moved on. Countries don’t treat the United States as a superpower to appease but simply as another factor among their many other problems and interests. They will go along with America only if they feel they truly have something to gain.

Even Trump’s victories prove the rule. His administration, for example, seems close to landing a deal with Iran to dismantle its nuclear weapons program. But the context is key. Iran’s economy has collapsed after years of sanctions, and its military and its proxies around the Middle East are diminished from U.S. and Israeli attacks. A deal is as much about Iran’s weakness as America’s strength.

To put this in Trump’s terms: America no longer has all of the cards, and other nations have learned they can call its bluff.