A Blog by Jonathan Low

  

Jun 12, 2025

Putin Claims He's Winning. The Data Show Otherwise

It's a signal day in the annals of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. By most accounts, Russia has now suffered one million casualties in its futile attempt to take over Ukraine. It has lost so much armor and so many other military vehicles that its troops now routinely 'attack' on scooters, motorbikes or repurposed civilian cars. And for that expenditure of human and material resources, it can claim only what it was able to grab and hang on to by the end of the first ten months of war. 

If this is wining, one shudders to think what losing looks like. JL

Riley McCabe reports in the Washington Post:

Russia has spent the past 17 months attempting to grind forward in Ukraine but according to new data, these efforts have yielded fewer than 1,800 square miles of new territory seized since January 2024, an outcome decisively short of Moscow’s objective to greatly expand its control of Ukrainian territory. Russian advances have been slower than Allied forces during the grueling World War I offensive in the Somme, a battle which became a byword for futility.  Russian fatalities in Ukraine now exceed all Russian soldiers killed in every war since World War II combined. Russia has also consistently lost 2 to 5 times more fighting vehicles than Ukraine. Russia is not on the march. It is bleeding personnel and equipment for mere meters of ground.

Last week, Ukraine carried out one of its most ambitious operations of the war using more than 100 drones to damage dozens of military aircraft at multiple air bases deep inside Russia. The attack, which was planned over many months and launched from within Russia, showed how Kyiv can use limited tools to achieve significant effects.

Russia, by contrast, has spent the past 17 months attempting to grind forward in Ukraine with brute force — and according to new data, it has little to show for its efforts. These efforts have yielded fewer than 1,800 square miles of new territory seized since January 2024, an outcome that decisively falls short of Moscow’s objective to greatly expand its control of Ukrainian territory. Russian advances in some areas have been slower than Allied forces during the grueling World War I offensive in the Somme, a battle which became a byword for costly and futile military operations.

For these marginal gains, Russia has paid an extraordinary price in blood and equipment. Russian fatalities in Ukraine now exceed the total number of Soviet and Russian soldiers killed in every war since World War II combined. By this summer, Russia will likely pass 1 million total military casualties.

Graphic shows fatalities of Russian soldiers in past wars

Russia has also consistently lost 2 to 5 times more fighting vehicles than Ukraine on the battlefield, including roughly 1,200 armored fighting vehicles, 3,200 infantry fighting vehicles and 1,900 tanks since January 2024.

This brutal reality challenges the narrative that Russia is dictating the terms of the conflict. Yes, Russian forces have been on the offensive since early 2024 (with a limited number of exceptions). But initiative alone is not victory. What matters is not just what Russia has gained, but also what it has lost in exchange.

Russian troops continue to face an extensively fortified front line consisting of minefields, trenches, anti-armor obstacles and artillery positions that shred assaults. Ukraine has also saturated the battlefield with drones, which now account for the majority of battlefield deaths. Ukraine’s defense-in-depth strategy, bolstered by U.S. and European support, has transformed the battlefield into a war of attrition that favors defenders and punishes attackers. Although the Kremlin appears willing to absorb this punishment in a bid to outlast Kyiv, it does not seem to be able to do more than slowly attempt to grind forward.

Indeed, the Kremlin’s path to victory is not through battlefield brilliance. It is through Western abandonment. Without U.S. support, Ukraine could quickly run short of critical munitions, fighting vehicles, air defenses and precision strike capabilities, giving Russian forces an advantage on the battlefield. The psychological blow of U.S. withdrawal could also shatter Ukrainian morale, accelerating collapse not through conquest, but through exhaustion, as happened to Austria-Hungary and the Russian Empire in World War I.

 

Putin is betting that political fatigue in Washington will deliver him what his military cannot. That bet extends to the negotiating table. Despite Russia’s limited gains and mounting losses, Moscow has shown little interest in serious diplomacy, insisting on maximalist terms while launching new attacks. But beneath the bluster lies a far weaker hand than many in the West assume.

A child walks past a destroyed Russian tank at Saint Michael's Square in Kyiv on May 14. (Roman Pilipey/AFP/Getty Images)

The United States has leverage. But it needs to wield it. U.S. policymakers should evaluate options to extend and accelerate military assistance to Ukraine, particularly air defense systems to protect Ukrainian troops and civilians alike, long-range precision strike systems to target Russian airfields and command hubs, and munitions to repel Russian assaults across an extended front. The United States should also raise the economic costs of continued war on Moscow. Congress is currently considering bipartisan legislation to impose new sanctions on Russia and secondary sanctions on countries enabling Russia’s wartime economy. One analysis suggests that secondary sanctions could cut Russian oil revenue by 20 percent while raising U.S. gas prices by just 15 cents a gallon.

Russia is not on the march. It is bleeding personnel and equipment for mere meters of ground. And it will only translate into victory if Washington lets it.

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