Russia "Unlikely To Occupy Half of Ukraine By 2026 Given Current Capabilities"

Russia remains incapable of capturing the whole of Donetsk oblast, let alone more of Kherson - and certainly not half of Ukraine as it claims it intends. Some estimates suggest it could take Russia 91 years to do so at its current rate of advance.

The reality on the ground is that Russia has consistently failed to achieve its military goals since early 2022 and appears unlikely to ever be able to do so given its inadequacies in troop effectiveness, logistics, tactics, strategy and leadership. JL 

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

Russia is unlikely to achieve its goal of occupying half of Ukraine by the end of 2026, given the current state of its offensive capabilities. These goals are not attainable due to the scale of Russian losses in manpower and equipment over the course of the war, as well as Moscow’s consistent failure to achieve operational maneuver on the battlefield. The institute specifically cast doubt on Moscow’s ability to even fully capture the remaining areas of Donetsk Oblast by the Sept. 1, 2025 target and questioned the feasibility of Russian forces capturing the remainder of Kherson Oblast. 

Russia is unlikely to achieve its goal of occupying half of Ukraine by the end of 2026, given the current state of its offensive capabilities and continued Western military aid to Kyiv, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its June 6 assessment.

Analysts examined a statement by Pavlo Palisa, deputy head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, who said Russia aims to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by Sept. 1, 2025, and to establish a buffer zone along Ukraine’s northern border with Russia by the end of that year. He also warned that Russia intends to seize all Ukrainian territory east of the Dnipro River, as well as Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts, by the end of 2026 — effectively cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea.

 

If successful, Russia would control 336,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory — more than half of Ukraine’s total area of roughly 603,000 square kilometers.

Photo: ISW

But ISW argues those goals are not attainable. It cited the scale of Russian losses in manpower and equipment over the course of the three-year full-scale war, as well as Moscow’s consistent failure to achieve operational maneuver on the battlefield.

Analysts believe Russia could only accomplish those objectives if there is a major shift along the front — such as a sudden collapse of Ukraine’s defensive lines or an unexpected Russian breakthrough in maneuver warfare.

ISW has previously assessed that delays in Western assistance to Ukraine in 2023 and 2024 gave Russia a temporary advantage, allowing it to regain some battlefield initiative. Now, the Kremlin is aggressively working to convince the West that Ukraine’s defeat is inevitable and that further support is futile — something ISW calls dictator Vladimir Putin’s “only real hope.”

“ISW continues to assess that Western assistance remains vital to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian aggression and is essential for securing a just and lasting peace in Ukraine and long-term European security,” the report said. “Russia is unlikely to seize half of Ukraine if the international coalition continues its support.”

The institute specifically cast doubt on Moscow’s ability to even fully capture the remaining areas of Donetsk Oblast by the Sept. 1, 2025 target. In the past 15 months, Russian forces have advanced only 30 to 50 kilometers — from the outskirts of Avdiivka to the outskirts of Pokrovsk — a pace far too slow to meet that deadline.

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ISW also questioned the feasibility of Russian forces capturing the remainder of Kherson Oblast. Doing so would require them to cross the Dnipro, secure a foothold on the western (right) bank, and reoccupy the city of Kherson. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces have conducted successful large-scale river crossings since Russian troops withdrew to the left bank of the Dnipro in November 2022.

A simultaneous offensive in northern Ukraine — also part of Russia’s stated objectives — would stretch Russian manpower and logistics across the entire 1,000-kilometer front line and likely exacerbate existing constraints.

ISW emphasized that Russia’s ambitions to control half of Ukraine go far beyond its publicly stated territorial demands. To realize those ambitions, Moscow would have to seize nine regional capitals — Zaporizhzhya, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava — home to a pre-war population of more than 5.6 million people.

Since Ukraine’s Defense Forces liberated the city of Kherson in 2022, Russia has not managed to capture a single oblast capital.