The Kremlin Fears Israel's Iran Attacks Weaken Its Ukraine Capabilities

Iran has become Russia's largest direct supplier of military equipment, especially drones and missiles, in its invasion of Ukraine. Israel's attack on Iranian military-industrial facilities thus weakens Russia as well as Iran, both by reducing Iran's ability to supply Russia with essential weaponry, but also by even forcing Russia to aid Iran with limited air defense systems of its own. 

This could create additional problems for Russia by brining it into indirect conflict with Israel, which could then become more overtly helpful to Ukraine by supplying air defense and other advanced technology and weapons to Ukraine. Looming over all of these developments is the possibility that the Iranian regime, widely disliked by its populace, could fall, which would then eliminate one of Russia's limited set of allies. JL

Catherine Belton reports in the Washington Post and Nadia Boianivska reports in Espreso Global:

As the conflict between Israel and Iran stretches into its fourth day, Russia is coming to the realization it could destroy the country’s closest ally in the Middle East, the second to fall in less than a year. Moscow has relied heavily on a steady supply of cheap Iranian drones and missiles to bombard Ukrainian cities. Moscow has transferred navigation and guidance technologies, software components for UAVs, and experience in disguising equipment from Western intelligence to Tehran. Iran, in turn, is helping Russia to produce Shahed drones in Tatarstan, Russia. The destruction of Iran's military-industrial plants, and the (potential) fall of the Iranian regime, will mean the loss of technology and weapons supplies for Russia

Washington Post - As the direct conflict between Israel and Iran stretches into its fourth day, members of the Russian establishment are coming to the realization that it could destroy the country’s closest ally in the Middle East — the second to fall in less than a year.

 

When Israel began bombarding Iran’s nuclear facilities early Friday and killing its commanders, some in the Moscow elite initially saw it as an opportunity for Russia.

“Only a summit between Russia and the U.S., between Putin and Trump, can keep the world from catastrophe,” said influential Moscow tycoon Konstantin Malofeyev, suggesting that Russia could use its long-standing relationship with Iran to bring it to the table for a nuclear deal in return for the United States withdrawing its support for Ukraine.

“Against the backdrop of all this, Kyiv’s demands [for assistance] look ridiculous. … It’s time for the Americans to leave Ukraine to us.”

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin immediately put himself forward as a mediator in phone calls with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump.

Russian analysts also predicted that the new conflict would distract world attention from Russia’s military action against Ukraine, and that the resulting surge in oil prices would replenish Russia’s increasingly squeezed coffers.

But as Israel expands its attacks deeper into Iran’s cities and towns, targeting energy production and manufacturing facilities, nervousness is growing in Russia that the Israeli attacks could lead to regime change in Iran and the potential loss of one of Russia’s most important allies in its efforts to create an “anti-Western alliance.”

“The situation is developing in a dangerous direction for Russia,” said Konstantin Zatulin, head of Moscow’s influential CIS Institute, which is close to Russian security services, writing on Telegram. The institute will be holding a conference Wednesday with the Iranian Foreign Ministry on “Russian-Iranian cooperation in a changing world.”

 

One Russian academic close to senior Russian diplomats said he expected the Russian participants to be closely watching their Iranian counterparts during the conference for any signals on the fragility of the regime.

“It’s not clear that pressure from Israel will lead to the weakening of the regime. The external threat could lead to the opposite and unite society,” he said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to talk frankly on the subject. “Where the limits of this stability are — this is the most important question. It is difficult to judge.”

Other Russian analysts said they feared the Iranian regime was increasingly brittle.

Iranian then-President Ebrahim Raisi, right, Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, center, arrive for a joint news conference after their summit in Tehran on July 19, 2022. (Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images)

Since the start of its full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow has drawn ever closer to its long-standing ally, Tehran. It relied heavily on a steady supply of cheap Iranian drones and missiles to bombard Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, at least until recently, when it launched its own drone production lines.

 

Moscow and Tehran signed a strategic partnership agreement in January formalizing their close ties, but stopped short of setting up a full military alliance.

“The biggest threat is that under any resolution of the crisis, there is a risk for Russia’s position in the region. If Netanyahu can pressure the Islamic republic and provoke a regime change, then it’s more likely than not that whatever the new regime will be — whether secular or religious, military or liberal or conservative — it’s not going to be as positive toward Moscow as the current one,” the academic said.

Even if the regime withstands prolonged attacks, “then the process of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is likely to spread, which is also not in Russia’s interests,” the academic added. “It is difficult to find a situation here where Russia would win.”

 

After the fall of another long-standing Moscow ally in Syria, any collapse of the Iranian regime would be a much more serious blow, he added. “Iran is bigger and is a neighboring country, and there is an even more historic long-standing relationship.”

As Netanyahu makes his determination to topple the current Iranian leadership ever clearer, urging Iranians on Saturday to “stand up and let your voices be heard,” the chances for Putin to act as an effective intermediary appear to be diminishing, he said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday reiterated Moscow’s offer to mediate between Israel and Iran, but so far there have been no immediate takers. Trump appeared to be considering it when he spoke with Putin by telephone Saturday, but a number of European leaders have dismissed the idea.

 

The most immediate boon for Russia since the start of the conflict is the surge in the price of Russian Urals-blend oil, which, according to Reuters, is now back up to levels last seen in April, above the $60 price cap set for Russian oil by the Group of Seven countries as part of efforts to reduce Moscow’s ability to fund its war in Ukraine.

Falling oil prices had put an increasing strain on the Russian budget, causing oil and gas revenue to plunge by a third, to $6.55 billion in May, according to Russian Finance Ministry data.

“While the oil price is high, Russia can get billions of dollars, potentially tens of billions of dollars in additional revenue, and this is always useful,” said Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political analyst. In addition, any reduction in oil supplies from Iran would make China more reliant on Russian supplies, bringing Beijing potentially even closer to Moscow and making it less likely to bow to the threat of sanctions.

Motorists queue at a gas station in Tehran on Sunday after overnight Israeli missile strikes struck fuel depots in the Iranian capital. (Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images)

A further immediate benefit for Moscow would be the need for the United States to divert missile defense systems to its bases in the Middle East and to its allies there, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. “Ukraine can forget about getting more air defense systems,” Markov said.

 

“But strategically, if there is regime change, then the anti-Western coalition will be smaller,” he said.

Some Russian politicians have been warning that the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran could push the world to the brink of World War III. “They are trying to present peaceful nuclear development as a nuclear threat, in this way setting alight the fire of World War III,” warned the head of the Russian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, Leonid Slutsky, on Monday. “Parliaments of the whole world should speak out against an escalation of the conflict, which could spread far beyond the borders of the Middle East.”

If Iran expands its response beyond strikes on Israeli targets, “this would be the worst scenario in the current difficult situation,” said Konstantin Kosachev, deputy speaker of the Federation Council, Russia’s upper chamber of parliament.

 

Chances are also growing that this could turn into a global conflict, Markov said. Russia could begin providing further assistance to Iran in an effort to prop up its Middle Eastern ally, including by supplying more air defense systems and more military assistance, as well as food and other aid to ease internal tensions.

“When everywhere the fires of conflict are burning, then it’s clear these fires could begin to merge and a huge worldwide conflagration can begin,” Markov said. “The West has created the conditions for any war to be good for Russia.” 

Espreso - The Israel-Iran conflict has already impacted global processes, drawing in the U.S., China, and most G7 countries, as well as influencing the course of the Russia-Ukraine war

Mykhailo Samus, Director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, told this to Espreso.

Every Ukrainian is aware of the results of close military-technical cooperation between Russia and Iran: Iranian long-range Shahed-136 strike drones have become the main weapon of the Russian terrorist attacks on the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine. In addition, Russia and Iran are closely cooperating in the missile industry (which may have improved the accuracy of Iranian missiles fired at Israel), as well as in other areas of arms and military equipment development and production.

Mykhailo Samus points out that Russia and Iran share a number of interests: circumvention of sanctions, technological cooperation, and common hostility to the United States and NATO. 

According to international research centers, Moscow has already transferred navigation and guidance technologies, software components for UAVs, and experience in disguising equipment from Western intelligence to Tehran. Iran, in turn, is helping Russia to produce Shahed drones, which are already being assembled in Tatarstan, Russia. Therefore, the destruction of Iran's military-industrial complex plants, and even more so the fall of the Iranian regime, will mean the loss of technology and weapons suppliers for the Russian army

 

Among the negative consequences of the Middle East conflict, the expert notes a possible increase in oil prices and the deployment of air and missile defense systems (primarily the U.S. armed forces) to the Middle East. This may limit the ability of partners to assist in strengthening Ukraine's air and missile defense capabilities.

But despite all the risks, the Israeli-Iranian war also opens up certain opportunities for Ukraine. 

"If Israel destroys Iran's air defense system and, as a result, Iran's military-industrial complex facilities, the possibility of supplying components for drones and other weapons to Russia may be reduced. There may also be a reduced risk of ballistic missiles being delivered from Iran to Russia, which the Russian leadership has long sought to obtain from Iran. 

In addition to direct consequences, there may be indirect ones. Iran may turn to Russia for urgent assistance in supplying air defense systems, Su-35 fighters, and other military aid. As a result, some of the weapons that could be used by Russia against Ukraine could go to Iran and thus weaken the capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces on the Ukrainian front," Samus said.

According to the expert, in the context of active hostilities, Israel may well change its attitude to cooperation with Ukraine, which will open up opportunities for an active military-technical dialogue with Israel in the field of electronic warfare, drone and anti-drone technologies, intelligence and surveillance systems.

 “Ukraine's experience in modern warfare, drone-centric doctrine, and the use of ground robotic systems is a unique asset that can become the basis for a new partnership,” believes Mykhailo Samus.