The US Has Lost Its Leverage Over Ukraine

The Trump administration's transparent favoritism for Putin's Russia - evident from the double standard of treatment and threats, cut off of supplies and other actions - has now caused the opposite of what the White House intended: Ukraine has accepted the inevitable, moved on - and strengthened itself and its allies in the process.

Recognizing that the US is no longer a dependable ally, Ukraine has doubled down on its drone warfare capabilities and home grown defense production. The result is a stronger Ukraine in many respects and, sadly, a weaker US. JL

Espreso Global reports:

Ukraine’s potential—the Armed Forces and its own defense industry, advanced drone technologies—democratizes violence on the ground so much that the U.S. no longer has the levers to directly influence Ukraine. "Trump’s actions aimed at weakening Ukraine, on the contrary, strengthen it, as well as Ukraine’s friends and their supporting Ukraine."  The world is finding ways to cooperate without the United States. We see this from America’s closest partners, such as Japan and South Korea. We also see Europe’s position, which tries to keep its distance from both Trump’s policies and China. Thus, a world is being built in which the United States is weakened.

Piotr Kulpa, former secretary of the Polish delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and former Deputy Minister of Economy of Poland, in an interview with Antin Borkovskyi, host of the Studio West program on Espreso TV, spoke about the weakening of the U.S. under Donald Trump, China's interest in conflicts, and the only way to support global stability

There is a severe escalation in the U.S.—there are extremely strange statements from both President Trump and his subordinates. The head of the Pentagon said they would reduce aid to Ukraine, even though they have not yet implemented a military aid program.

On the other hand, Americans are taking to the streets, and complicated relations with governors are beginning. We understand that the U.S. is about to experience a major crisis. At the same time, we see that Putin is not ready for negotiations and is instead brutally attacking Ukrainian cities, realizing that the United States is now weakening.

I see it as a tragic process of the "Venezuelization" of the United States. What is happening is an incredible tragedy for the American people. In addition to the conflicts that the Trump administration has started with the whole world, especially with allies—tariffs, territorial demands, threats—now there is also an internal, domestic war for power. We must not forget how President Trump has repeatedly said that two terms are too little for such a great man as himself, and that this is simply unacceptable. What we are seeing is an internal political war. "Gavin Newsom is the most popular politician in the Democratic Party, the governor of California, who could become the Democratic leader in the elections."

Therefore, this internal battle is taking place in California. That’s how it can be seen, because Trump’s goal is to show Newsom that he cannot cope. And what results is, I would say, an incredible tragedy, because, as you said, this weakens the United States and its allies.

"If we look further at relations with Russia, Trump did everything to pull Putin out of the pariah zone."

And the peace talks were just a pretext, because there was not a single action that could be considered neutral. In fact, this leads to a weakening of Ukraine’s position. Our good fortune is that Ukraine’s potential—the Armed Forces and its own defense industry, advanced drone technologies—democratizes violence on the ground so much that the U.S. no longer has the levers to directly influence Ukraine.

It turns out that today, everything Trump does leads the U.S. into deep isolation, because the world is finding ways to cooperate without the United States. We see this from America’s closest partners, such as Japan and South Korea. We also see Europe’s position, which tries to keep its distance from both Trump’s policies and China. Thus, a world is being built in which the United States is weakened.

"And Russia is so weak that it is already in a state of hopelessness and irresponsibility. The attacks we see are a manifestation of despair; they cannot change anything."

But they kill. We understand that this does not affect the strategic course of the war, but it demonstrates a colossal level of brutality. Ukraine needed a reaction from the U.S.—not just tweets calling Putin crazy, but actions, which we do not see.

"I will say more: the U.S. and the Trump administration are acting criminally because they equate the victim and the aggressor, showing a kind of equivalence, which is not the case here."

First of all, this is ineffective. Look: at the beginning of 2024, 78,000 people lived in Kherson; about 1,500 were killed or injured, but by the end of the year, the city’s population grew to 98,000. This shows that such a method does not work; people cannot be frightened. They try to organize "Kharkiv Days," "Kherson Days" in Kyiv or other cities, but in reality, they will achieve "Kherson Days" in Moscow. That’s how I see it. And it is inevitable.

"All of Trump’s actions aimed at weakening Ukraine, on the contrary, strengthen it, as well as Ukraine’s friends and their unity around supporting Ukraine."

On the other hand, those who do not intend to, weaken Russia, because the tariffs Trump introduced lower expectations for global growth, which reduces demand for energy resources. Thus, what we see in Russia is economic decline, the largest deficit since Yeltsin’s time, so they will have to revise the budget at least once, maybe twice, this year.

Accordingly, in this system, on the one hand, it is a criminal, bandit war. And what you say about U.S. indecision is confirmation of this. But one thing must be understood: Putin with or without Trump, Trump with or without Putin, cannot change anything, because they are weak.

"The United States has weakened under Trump to such an extent that it can no longer establish peace."

Now, peace will be established together with China; without China’s participation, this peace cannot be achieved. Whoever establishes peace in this phase of the global war will determine the further rules of the game. And here, the U.S. has shown its weakness. Only after some agreement is reached between the U.S. and China will a peace framework be built and Putin’s wishes, which are unrealistic and far from possible, be limited. China will play a restraining role here, because Russia cannot wage this war without China’s support. So we are waiting for some kind of agreement between the U.S. and China.

Negotiations have begun; China is acting tough because it demands the complete removal of tariffs. But negotiations continue. If these negotiations on the main relations on earth—between China and the U.S.—are built, then there will be room to stop Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Until this happens, there will be no truce; it’s just a play on words and processes that will not lead to stopping the war. Why? Because China fears that stopping Russia’s war against Ukraine will free up Russian forces to create security risks for Europe. And this could force Europe to come under the U.S. umbrella, which China does not want.

Therefore, it is beneficial for China that Russia’s hands are tied and that Europe is less afraid. In principle, there is space and time to keep them in uncertainty. As you rightly said, this is criminal uncertainty—criminal indecision concerns primarily the United States, which is breaking the unity of the West. The processes we see in Europe are aimed at dividing Europe, imposing Trumpist policies. But in fact, today this policy gives Ukraine more chances, more strength than Trump or Vance could have expected, when in Munich he announced this irresponsible, criminal policy.

We understand that Putin is being used, but he is a player in the game. His criminal aggression against Ukraine and threats toward the EU were at times beneficial for China. Putin does not stop the aggression; on May 9, there was a meeting between him and Xi Jinping. Then the Russian leader voiced his supposed readiness to negotiate. A few days later, Brazilian President Lula da Silva arrived, whom Putin did not receive. Also, a few days ago, there was a conversation between the leaders of the U.S. and China; Trump invited Xi Jinping to the U.S. and expressed readiness to visit Beijing. How do these recent events fit into your vision?

First of all, tariff negotiations are ongoing, trade talks are underway, because the economy determines the actions of politicians who serve it. And the foundation for this is security issues. There are global contradictions because China is interested in supporting the global system that existed—without tariffs, with open markets. U.S. politicians felt they were losing in this policy.

"Now there is a threat of a global recession, a global economic downturn, which will be a shock for many countries. There is no doubt about this."

What is happening now is Trump’s recognition that he lost the tariff war. Think about it—he introduced high tariffs of 145%, which he was forced to limit. And he will continue to limit them; now there are proposals for 60%, 30%, but Beijing does not agree until all tariffs are removed. For China, this is a matter of prestige; it is important to show that it is no longer a junior partner in these interdependent relations with the U.S..

And today, these negotiations continue; they have given themselves two months before a new wave of the tariff war begins. But this is no longer a tariff war, but a trade war, because China has introduced countermeasures related to a ban on the export of rare earth metals. There is also a threat of a financial war, because the U.S. may restrict liquidity. We see that everything is heading toward decline.

As for Russia’s war against Ukraine—this is one of the answers to the question of what the world will be like. If the U.S. and China reach an agreement, then Beijing’s strategy will focus on creating conditions for global cooperation, that is, there will be agreement to limit conflicts.

"If there is no such agreement, China will be interested in conflicts happening all over the world, thus dispersing the U.S. presence, showing everyone again and again that the United States can do nothing."

In fact, what happened is an important moment. The first important moment was when President Zelenskyy in the White House showed that Trump’s arms are too short to dictate terms to a free people fighting for their lives, terms that contradict international law, justice, and the honor of the people. Zelenskyy also showed that this issue cannot be resolved between the U.S. and the Russians without Ukraine.

Then there were meetings in Paris and London, where Europe showed that this issue cannot be resolved without it either. Then China appeared, as you said, at the parade, and also expressed readiness to participate. Now it is becoming clear that some system of global balance needs to be created, but it is difficult to create when the strongest country in the world—the U.S.—is out of balance. In the U.S., internal and external problems are one conflict—ungovernability. And ungovernability is the most frightening, because all the proposals coming from the Trump administration are meaningless. I am talking about tariff and trade proposals, behind which there is nothing—no calculations, no strategy.

"We are all in a situation today where we are flying in a plane and do not know whether the pilot is with us or has already stopped controlling the machine. And that is the tragedy."

The Venezuelization of the U.S. today creates the main risk for the global system. We see that everyone who can is moving away from the dollar, quietly buying gold, trying to diversify, entering other markets. And here we encounter a lack of solidarity and the collapse of the West. Because now the NATO summit is an attempt to fill with words the huge gap that has arisen between the U.S. and Europe, including Canada. This is an unprecedented situation.

"It should also be understood that the stabilizer of this whole situation is Ukraine, because it is not the U.S., not some magical NATO that protects Central Europe and Europe in general, but 120 Ukrainian brigades and Ukraine’s defense industry."

The only and most effective way to support security and global stability is to concentrate efforts on supporting Ukraine. Today, there is no more effective way than scaling up the potential of the Ukrainian defense industry, which is the most advanced.

We need quick steps; you absolutely correctly outlined the need for additional support mechanisms, but also responsible military steps are needed. Ukraine is covering Europe, considering the latest information attack from the Kremlin, which demands the withdrawal of NATO troops from Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Most likely, the Alliance will not agree to this. But at the same time, there must be a consolidated position so that Europeans also take responsibility and are ready to act quickly. The Russians know that Europeans are preparing, but Russia shows that it is ready to continue the war. We understand that the economy is very important, but the experience of the North Korean dictatorship shows that Russians can also live very poorly.

Two points need to be emphasized. First, Russia’s expectations regarding Poland and the Baltic countries show one principle—the indivisibility of the security of the Intermarium countries: Ukraine, the Baltic countries, and Poland. This is a very important principle.

"NATO’s mistake was that part of this space, namely the Baltic peoples and Poland, were accepted into NATO, but Ukraine did not become a member of the Alliance."

Thus, a division of the security status of different parts of the Intermarium occurred, and this is always an invitation to war. If we want to stop the next war, then Ukraine, the Baltic countries, and Poland, and in the future Belarus, must have the same security status. When we are together, we do not need external security guarantors. If we are divided, war comes through our territories and we are killed. This is a very important point.

The second point is the Ukrainian army and support for Ukraine. The key here is the incredible progress Ukraine has made and which must be applied immediately. This concerns the structure of the army, the structure of the defense industry, and cooperation between the army and the defense industry—all this has made Ukraine a leading country in the world today. Without this, there will be no progress in NATO, and there will only be talk about money, which does not increase capabilities. People involved in drone-centric warfare are not working as engineers, but they understand that all the hardware—Abrams, HIMARS, ATACMS—was provided to Ukraine only partially and without modifications. Today, a tank is worth two and a half cheap drones.

In my opinion, not only has violence been democratized, but such means are being created that defense far surpasses offense. Accordingly, the methods I know and that Ukraine is implementing will make territorial concessions and Russian advances impossible if implemented using artificial intelligence and automation.

"Most European military headquarters and defense industries are not even aware of such methods of warfare, so eyes need to be opened."

The same goes for the changing relationship between civilians and the military. Now the military has very limited ability to defend the country, because in reality, civil defense and mobilization are what will work.

As for Russia, they are indeed dangerous, because due to lack of funding for the war, Russia will carry out mobilization so that people fight for free. In this way, they will somewhat preserve resources. And the resources that could be used to continue the war will be taken from the population through inflation or freezing. The resources that Russia has are already exhausted. And oil prices make Russia a big budget hole. Accordingly, this process will greatly limit Russia.

"There has never been such a terrible dictator who could wage war without resources, so his days are numbered."

There are reserves to collect from Russians—about two trillion dollars. So there is still potential, but it will be on different principles, North Korean principles, and such comparisons are absolutely appropriate.

How long do you think Russia’s offensive potential will last? We are talking about a hellishly difficult summer-autumn campaign. Will Russia be ready to negotiate if we apply certain additional surprises for the enemy? We understand that Russian logistics—military, political, and economic—are de facto centered on two cities: Moscow and St. Petersburg. And they are extremely worried if this logistics is destroyed or damaged.

There are no direct threats to the front; the Ukrainian army is coping. Now there is "dronization"—80% of everything is drones, drones, and more drones. Ukraine has the advantage here, but the problem is scaling. Russians can copy and then scale, so they are able to compensate and continue to play on equal terms. In fact, Ukraine is technologically winning here, and it is very important to have resources from Europe—first, financial, namely providing their territories for larger-scale production. Second, changing legislation, because today the fight is on the shoulders of the Ukrainian soldier, and a European who wants to fight for Ukraine and support the defense of the continent is considered a criminal in his own country.

"It is difficult to speak when we see Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities being bombed; we would like bombs to fall on Moscow and St. Petersburg as well. But it should be emphasized that Ukraine conducts its combat operations humanely; there is no blind hatred."

Ukrainian strategic drones are doing great work across the entire territory of Russia, from the Baltic Sea to Chechnya, and this will only intensify. The area of Russian territory under attack will only expand. I believe that the Russians will not be able to concentrate anything, because drones will destroy their logistics routes.

Putin has no arguments, even though he tried to show his strength before Istanbul. One action by Ukrainian intelligence destroyed everything, and now the Russians are sitting in shame, wondering what to do next. This is a victorious war, in which Russia will be forced to return everything to the last centimeter.

And the next strategic question is: what next for Russia, since the U.S. fears its collapse.