Ukraine Has Stopped Russia's Summer Offensive Cold And Putin Is Losing

What's interesting about this picture is not that yet another Russian tank is burning after being hit by a Ukrainian drone - it's that the Russians managed to get a tank near any battlefield at all. 

As midsummer passes and autumn rains are four to six weeks away, Russia's once vaunted summer offensive is a shambles. Its casualties are at an all time high and it has literally nothing to show for the wasted lives. Ukrainian drones and defenses in depth have cold-cocked the armor-less Russian military, which is vainly ordering its hapless conscripts and paid volunteers into suicidal attacks that have no hope of success because they have no artillery support (having run out of gun barrels), no tanks (destroyed by Ukrainian forces in previous misadventures), no air force backup (too afraid of being shot down by Ukraine's air defenses). The only argument of relevance right now is whether - at their current tortoise-like pace - it would take Russia 70 years or 87 years to capture all of Ukraine, assuming the Ukrainians stop fighting, which, of course, they won't. Putin's only hope is that he can kill enough civilians and destroy enough apartment blocks to convince them to sue for peace (fat chance) while somehow keeping Trump from crossing him so that Putin's own ultra-nationalists don't decide its their turn and he suddenly discovers himself falling out of a high window. JL

Jason Jay Smart reports in his substack:

Ukraine's drone strikes and defenses are humiliating Putin as its summer offensive  collapses while its troops crawl at a pace 18-20 times slower than Verdun or Normandy, revealing a catastrophic lack of momentum. And as Ukraine is taking the war deep into Russia. The Kremlin's summer offensive is a tactical disaster and a strategic delusion. Its economy is bleeding out, running on debt and confiscation. Its generals are dying, elites purged or panicking. And its skies—once secure—are now open to Ukraine's drones shattering its sanctuaries. Ukraine is not just defending. It is dictating the pace, choosing the battlefield, and undermining Russia’s long‑term war potential. Time, technology, and terrain now favor Kyiv. This is the data driven case for why Putin is losing. 

Ukraine’s drone strikes and trench defenses are humiliating Russia’s stalled summer offensive—while Putin’s economy crumbles under sanctions, oil losses, and elite purges.

Putin’s “three day special military operation” is a failure of epic proportions.

Russia’s summer offensive is collapsing. Russia’s troops are crawling forward at a pace slower than World War I trench battles. Its economy is bleeding out. Its generals are dying. Its drone sanctuaries are shattered. And Ukraine? Ukraine is not just holding the line—it’s taking the war deep into Russia. This is the data‑driven case for why Putin is losing—fast.

As of July 11, Russia has suffered 1,022,460 total casualties since the invasion began—236,000 in 2025 alone, averaging 1,080 daily in June¹. Since July 2024, Russia has captured just 5,000–6,000 km²—less than 1 % of Ukraine’s territory². Between May 20 and June 17, it gained only 601 km²—averaging just 19 km² per day². At that rate, it would take Russia 87 years to conquer Ukraine’s 603,500 km²³.

 

On the Toretsk front, Russian troops have advanced just 60 km since October 2023—about 135 meters per day⁴. In Kharkiv, the average rate is just 50 meters per day⁴. By contrast, World War I’s Battle of Verdun saw daily shifts of 2,400 meters². World War II’s Operation Cobra advanced 9,000 meters per day⁵. Russia’s pace is 18–220 times slower than Verdun, Amiens, or Normandy—revealing a catastrophic lack of momentum.

For scale: 601 km² is equivalent to three Washington, D.C.’s or two Liechtensteins⁶. This is not strategic progress—it’s a bogged‑down war of meters, not miles.

Ukraine’s defensive lines—minefields, artillery traps, trench belts—are halting every push⁷. In Sumy, Russian troops are now using motorcycles and quad bikes to dodge drones⁸. On July 2, a Ukrainian strike killed Col. Sergei Ilyin of the 155th Marine Brigade and Maj. Gen. Mikhail Gudkov of the Russian Navy⁹. At least 12 Russian generals and over 500 colonels and lieutenant‑colonels have been killed since 2022¹⁰. Command‑and‑control is collapsing under constant attrition.

 

Meanwhile, the Kremlin is purging its own elites. On July 1, former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was sentenced to 13 years in prison for embezzling ₽4.1 billion¹¹. Days later, Transport Minister Roman Starovoit was found dead after his dismissal¹². The Russian state is bleeding men at the front—and loyalty at the top.

On the ground, Ukrainian resolve is embodied by units like the 505th Separate Marine Battalion, which is using drones to stop Russian advances cold. Their relentless defense in the Pokrovsk direction—under daily fire—is turning Russia’s offensive into a crawl and saving lives in the process. Likewise, the 225th Separate Assault Regiment is holding the line in Sumy, where Russia is attempting a northern push toward Kyiv.

Sumy is only a four‑ to five‑hour drive from the capital—and Ukrainian drone crews are the difference between Moscow’s ambitions and Kyiv’s survival. These defenders are not just stalling Russia—they’re repelling it.

We have been fundraising for drones for these specific units - and we have raised 35,000 Euros already! Your support is the reason these units have the drones they need to win. You are helping Ukraine to win—and stopping Russia from breaking through. To all of you who have contributed: thank you. If you would like to join them, please see the link below. Your support is saving Ukrainian lives in the fight for freedom. [Help Ukraine get drones: https://www.paypal.com/donate?campaign_id=STAHVCFBSB66L].

With the offensive stalled and trust collapsing, Moscow has only one card left to play: its economy. And it’s failing too.

Russia’s 2025 budget assumes $52.50 per barrel for oil, but Urals crude is trading around $46.60—sometimes as low as $40¹³. That shortfall cuts $17–22 billion in oil revenues—around one‑third of the declared military budget¹⁴. India and China have reduced imports amid oversupply and sanctions risk¹⁵. Insurance costs for Russia’s “shadow fleet” tankers have jumped 85 % since May, slashing profits¹⁶. In June 2025, Russia’s energy revenue dropped to 39 % of its pre‑war average—the lowest since March 2023¹⁷.

 

Since 2022, Russia has seized over $50 billion in domestic private assets¹⁸. In 2024, those seizures added just $1.7 billion to the federal budget—enough to fund only one week of war¹⁹. A new law passed in July 2025 allows the Kremlin to confiscate crypto wallets, inheritance funds, and foreign‑linked accounts²⁰. Despite threats, Russia still has no legal access to $300 billion in frozen overseas reserves²¹. The Kremlin is funding its war by expropriation, not taxation—a sign of authoritarian decay²².

Russia’s economy is shrinking from within. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.2 in June—the worst since Wagner’s 2023 mutiny²³. For the first time in 13 months, the services sector is also contracting²⁴. Output dropped in steel (‑9.1 %), auto parts (‑14.7 %), and chemicals (‑6.3 %)—all vital for war production²⁵. GDP growth slowed from 3.6 % in Q4 2024 to just 1.4 % in Q1 2025²⁶. Analysts now warn reserves may run dry by September, triggering forced cuts or capital controls²⁷.

By July, Russia had already exhausted its full‑year deficit target—$47 billion²⁸. Military spending now makes up 6.3 % of GDP and nearly 40 % of the federal budget²⁹. The ruble is down 18 % year‑to‑date. Real wages have fallen in 53 of 85 regions³⁰. Interest rates remain at 19 %—freezing private lending and mortgages³¹. Even Kremlin economists now warn of collapse without currency restrictions and bailouts³².

 

With its war chest empty and its elite fracturing, Russia now faces a new threat: Ukrainian drones striking the Russian heartland.

On June 1, Ukraine launched Operation Spiderweb: 117 drones hit five deep Russian airbases³³. Ten to thirteen strategic bombers were destroyed, and at least 41 aircraft were damaged³⁴. Targets included Irkutsk, Murmansk, and Ivanovo—up to 4,300 kilometers inside Russian territory³⁵. According to NATO and Ukrainian sources, 34 % of Russia’s cruise missile bomber fleet was disabled³⁶. This strike demolished Russia’s illusion of strategic sanctuary and shocked its command structure³⁷.

Russia’s summer offensive is a tactical disaster and a strategic delusion. Its soldiers are advancing at a pace 20–200 times slower than 20th‑century wars. Its economy is running on confiscation and debt. Its elites are either purged or panicking. And its skies—once secure—are now open to Ukrainian drones and destruction. Ukraine is not just defending. It is dictating the pace, choosing the battlefield, and undermining Russia’s long‑term war potential. Time, technology, and terrain now favor Kyiv. And unless the West wavers, Putin’s offensive may be the last one he ever mounts.