Putin told Trump 10 days ago that in 60 days he will be done with Ukraine. He and whose army? Certainly not with the one Putin has in the field. At current rates of advance and loss, Russia would capture the rest of Ukraine in 2256 at the cost of 101 million casualties (Its current population is 144 million). Russia has not taken one of Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt" cities. Even the key outer towns of Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Siversk and Toretsk still stand despite Russian forces attacking them since April, 2024. Then on June 30th and July 3rd with a double strike on the 8th Army and its massive cache of arms at Donetsk and Khartsyzk, Ukraine took out the upper echelon command for the 2025 Summer offensive against Pokrovsk.
So Krasnov has crassly given Putin 50 days to finish the job or else? … after Putin reportedly told him 10 days ago that in 60 days he will be done and finished with Ukraine. Yeah, he and whose army? Unless Putin has some kind of amazing abracadabra presto chango magic plan up his sleeve, this will be just another one of Putin’s dismissive deflections of the preternaturally uncurious Krasnov. 50 days to finish off Ukraine?
Certainly not with the “army’” Putin currently has in the field. Russia has not even taken Pokrovsk or any one of the skein of Northeastern Donetsk oblast industrial cities collectively known as Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt” … Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka. Even the key trip wire outer band towns of Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Siversk and Toretsk still stand, however tenuously. It is worth noting that Russian forces have been attacking these outer band towns since at least April, 2024. Chasiv Yar, for example, is approximately 10km(as the crow flies) from Bakhmut. And Bakhmut fell to the Russian force led by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner PMC in May 2023.
Putin’s maximalist demand for all of Ukraine ain’t gonna happen. On the ground Putin’s army just ain’t getting it done .. a meter here, a km there and a village there. In the meantime Ukraine’s army gets stronger everyday whilst saving as many of her soldiers as she can. Forbes Magazine’s David Axe estimates that:
At The Current Rate, It Would Take Russia Centuries And Tens Of Millions Of Casualties To Capture Ukraine
Russian forces managed to capture around 68 square miles of Ukraine in April. But it cost them 4,800 vehicles and more than 36,600 dead and wounded troops, according to one statistician who collects data mostly from official Ukrainian sources including the general staff in Kyiv.
In the same month, Ukrainian losses were “minimal,” concluded analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting in Poland.Ukraine sprawls across 233,000 square miles, 19% of which is under Russian occupation. At the current rates of advance and loss, the Russians would capture the rest of Ukraine in the year 2256 at the cost of 101 million casualties. The current population of Russia is 144 million.
Just today, July 20th, the ISW(Institute for the Study of War) reports that Russian forces around Pokrovsk and other areas of Donetsk are doing so without armor and are just relying on small “naked’ infantry assaults. In some areas, some of the assaulting Russians carry wooden ladders to try to breach Ukrainian anti-tank ditches and other defenses. This, to my mind, indicates either a diminished Russian ability to mount mechanized assaults or that Ukraine’s defenses are such that mechanized assaults have been rendered ineffective. The bit about ladders sounds almost medieval:
The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction reported that Russian forces are now conducting infantry assaults, in contrast to 2024 when Russian forces would conduct mechanized assaults.[34] The spokesperson reported that Russian forces have a manpower advantage but that most of the forces are ill-prepared for assaults.
Ukrainian Luhansk Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Dmytro Zaporozhets stated that Russian forces are attacking in small infantry groups and that two to three personnel in the group often carry wooden ladders in order to cross anti-tank ditches.[47]
There may be a perfectly good reason for why Russia’s Summer 2025 Offensive is now deemed less potent than as recent as 2024.
On the evening of June 30th this year Ukraine did something that while well-remarked in the media may have even greater import than initially thought. With the help of intelligence from local partisan groups Ukraine launched several air strikes against the Donetsk city headquarters of Russia’s 8th Guards Combined Arms Army . The lethal strikes were reportedly carried out using Storm Shadow missiles and killed "dozens" of Russian officers, including the commander, Colonel Ruslan Goryachkin.
Ruslan Goryachkin was no ordinary colonel. An ambitious young officer born in Sukhumi, the capital of Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia, he was reportedly hand picked by Putin and General Andrey Mordvichev who until his recent promotion to Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces previously commanded the Russian "Center" group of forces, including the 8th which was recently honored with the “Guards” designation for their performance in Mariupol, Avdiivka and of course the blitzkrieg to Pokrovsk. By all indications the 8th Guards was all rigged up and all set to be the point of the spear to finally bring down Ukrainian “Fortress Pokrovsk”:
ANALYSIS: Donetsk Inferno: Ukraine’s Drone Strikes Obliterate Russian War Plans
Russia’s planned offensive against Pokrovsk was intended to be the crowning achievement of Russia’s vaunted “summer offensive.” But like most Russian plans, it came up short.
Russia’s plan for Pokrovsk was simple and brutal. The 8th Combined Arms Army, Moscow’s spearhead in the east, was reinforced to a total of about 110,000 troops, with attached units of artillery, armor, mechanized infantry, and a significant stockpile of weapons, fuel and supplies. Infiltrated into staging areas in occupied Donetsk, the 8th Army was massed for a push toward Pokrovsk.
The attack was to be led by Col. Ruslan Goryachkin, Putin’s hand-picked commander. The offensive was to be supplied by a massive ammunition storage complex at Khartsyzk, just outside the city of Donetsk. Containing tens of thousands of tons of ordnance, Khartsyzk was to be the principal stockpile of ammo for Russia’s summer offensive. Col. Goryachkin had all his eggs neatly stacked in one basket.
One could imagine that Goryachkin was all hell bent for leather to get at Pokrovsk … his head swimming with dreams of honor and grandeur when he successfully accomplishes his task of reducing Pokrovsk. Like his former boss Mordvichev, he could see himself in one of the massive ball rooms at the Kremlin deck out in the double-breasted light gray general officer’s dress uniform ready to be decorated with a general’s epaulets. And more importantly the Czar himself will walk up to him, congratulate him and pin on his new uniform the much coveted "Hero of the Russian Federation" gold star medal … the highest honorary title awarded by the Russian Federation for heroic acts of bravery and exceptional service to the state and nation.
But not if Ukraine could stop it all from happening. And they did just that on June 30th and July 3rd with their double tap strike on the 8th Army and its massive cache of arms at Donetsk and Khartsyzk. What Ukrainians achieved in this strike cannot be under-estimated. They took out almost the entire upper echelon command of the lead formation of the 110,000 men poised for the 2025 Summer offensive against Pokrovsk … and perhaps the source of Putin’s confident assurance to Krasnov that it will be all over in 60 days. In one fell swoop, Ukraine likely dulled the dagger ominously pointed at Pokrovsk.
But whilst in the short term replacements can be found to fill the leadership vacancies suddenly created by the Ukrainian strike, the loss could significantly disrupt the command and control structure and potentially affect operations in that area given the Russian military’s well-known strict hierarchical structure combined with the loss of accumulated field experience and knowledge of the dead senior officers. The long-term impact will depend on the experience and effectiveness of their replacements
By all indications Putin will press on, whether his force is ready or not. Alea iacta est (the die is cast) as Caesar said when he and his armed legions crossed the Rubicon, the rivulet which formed the northern boundary of ancient Rome, a forbidden act punishable by death. Like Caesar, Putin is all in now … he will have all of Ukraine or die trying. The Ukrainians (and likely most of Europe) know this. Krasnov? Maybe not.
But Ukraine is not waiting around for Krasnov to see the light. Ukraine has been steadily building fortifications all along the now 1,200 km battle trace … still evolving fortification systems which rival or in some cases exceed the hardened and intricate labyrinthine sophistication of the famous Russian “Surovikin Line” which stymied the Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive in southern Ukraine. Russia is throwing its considerable manpower advantage against these defenses and not gaining much in return:
Photos show Ukraine bracing for Russian assaults with some of the same tricks that derailed its big counteroffensive
Preparing for potential future Russian assaults, Ukraine has begun building defenses in other areas using dragon's teeth, trenches, and bunkers, among other tactics.
How Ukraine is revamping frontline fortifications to stem Russian advances
Vladimir Putin’s troops are using smaller units to attack the front lines and Ukraine is being forced to respond.
“Now we see that the most effective position is a maximum of one detachment. And these are mainly groups of trenches, even so-called foxholes, which make it impossible for the enemy to use strike drones. After all, now a drone, especially on fiber optics, can penetrate any hole," Ukrainian Army Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi told journalists in Kyiv at the end of June.
Previously, strong points used extensive trench networks from 2 to 5 kilometers in length. The new system uses smaller strongpoints with trench networks 60 to 70 meters long and equipped with mandatory anti-drone cover. “These are harder to detect and are effective in carrying out tasks of defense, deterrence, and delivering firepower, including against FPV drones,” Umerov said.
“Fortification is not just about concrete and trenches — it is an adaptive engineering system that takes the enemy’s tactics into account and always serves one purpose: protecting our warriors. We monitor the process daily and reinforce the areas where it’s needed most,” Umerov said.
But what about the relentless daily Russian aerial attacks with missiles and Shahed drones? Putin, frustrated by a basically stalled summer offensive, has turned his focus to breaking Ukraine’s will and morale with barrages of drone strikes at civilian targets. But Ukraine is taking up the challenge presented by this shift in Russian strategy. By now the world is aware of Ukraine’s newly fielded drone interceptor technology, which reports indicate is having great success in knocking down a significant number of recent Russian Shahed drone barrages:
Ukraine Deploying ‘Tens Of Thousands’ Of Interceptors To Stop Shaheds
This week President Zelensky praised the work on interceptor teams, noting on his Facebook page that "Interceptor drones are performing especially well — already hundreds of Russian-Iranian Shahed drones have been shot down this week,"
The drone interceptor program is just one facet of Ukraine’s overall plan to not only close her sky but also to create such a dense multi-layered defense of drones which not only covers cities and civilian infrastructure but also builds a “drone wall” on the battlefield. As described by Mick Ryan, an analyst of the war, in Futura Doctrina:
Ukraine's Drone Wall
Revolutionary New Concept or 21st Century Maginot Line? An assessment of the new Drone Line / Wall, its opportunities and challenges, and how it might be applied in other theatres of war.
As Ukraine refines its use of autonomous systems, Russia should prepare to suffer even greater losses. Mass assaults, once effective in places like Bakhmut, are now being met by waves of Ukrainian drones. Ukraine’s drone wall is rapidly defining this phase of the war. David Kirichenko, 23 April 2025
The Drone Wall Cometh: Strategic and Operational Imperatives
For some time, Ukrainian officials have discussed the creation of a Drone Line, or as has it has been described more recently, a Drone Wall, along the frontline. This Drone Wall is designed to establish a 10-15-kilometre-wide zone which, according to recent comments by the Ukrainian defence minister, offers “air support and cover to the infantry, that makes the enemy's advance unattainable without losses.”But it is not only Ukraine which sees the necessity of putting up such a drone wall against Russia. Europe is also coming to the realization that Ukraine’s drone wall is actually safeguarding Europe as well:
Ukraine’s drone wall is Europe’s first line of defense against Russia
As Russia’s summer offensive continues to unfold along a front line measuring hundreds of miles, Ukraine’s overstretched military finds itself heavily reliant on drones to prevent any major breakthroughs. The Ukrainian military’s innovative and rapidly evolving use of unmanned aerial vehicles to create a layered defense is often referred to as a “drone wall.” If this Ukrainian drone wall can prove itself over the coming months and blunt Putin’s big offensive, this will likely shape future defensive doctrine in military academies across Europe and beyond.
The propagandistic Russian accounts of the daily ebb and flow of the war would give the casual observer the impression that Russia has all but gotten Ukraine done and dusted. Not so. Pokrovsk? It will soon fall, they’ve started saying, again. The “drone wall” is now a practical reality all along the entire battle trace, causing the Russians to effectively abandon much of their erstwhile strategy of massive mechanized infantry assaults. Even Krasnov now wants to buy Ukrainian drone technology. At Pokrovsk, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, ADAPTIVE INDOMITABLE UKRAINE’S flexible “bend but don’t break” layered defense is bearing fruit to the point where the Ukrainians are, today, actually mounting tactical counterattacks in some places, pushing out the exhausted Russians, taking prisoners and reclaiming their land … however small it may be at present. But it won’t stay that way forever. In time events will force Putin to disgorge that which he has illegally taken.
1 comments:
Working with a web agency near me has been a game-changer — they understand my local market, offer personalized service, and deliver creative solutions that truly align with my business goals.
Post a Comment