Seller's Remorse: Iran Regrets Shahed Sale To Russia As It Gets Nothing In Return

Iran reportedly regrets its 'deal' to provide Russia with Shahed drones because it has gotten little in return, a point brought home by Russia's refusal or inability (or both) to help Iran when Israel attacked it in June. 

Iran wanted upgrades to its offensive and defensive capabilities, but has received little assistance - and even payments in gold are reportedly behind schedule. This suggests that Russia is simply under too much pressure in its Ukraine war to provide much help to any of its ostensible allies. It also underscores the financial strain the war has imposed on the Russian economy. But perhaps most of all it reveals that Russia is simply not a reliable partner. JL

Paul Iddon reports in Forbes:

While hundreds of Iranian-designed drones rain down on Ukrainian cities every night, not a single new Russian-supplied Su-35 was available to defend Iranian airspace in the face of Israel’s aerial bombardments in June. What Iran is getting in return for valuable assistance is far from clear. Iran reportedly regrets aspects of the arrangement under which it provided Russia with its homegrown drones. Shahed-136 transfers led to speculation that Iran would receive Su-35 Flanker fighter jets - two dozen Flankers Moscow built for Egypt would now go to Iran. However, Russia recently delivered some of them to Algeria. Tehran paid for 50 Su-35s but never received a single one. Tehran’s reported frustration with the limited returns it’s getting from its arrangement with Moscow is hardly surprising.

Russia’s Iranian-designed propeller-driven Shahed-136 one-way explosive-laden attack drones have repeatedly targeted Ukraine’s cities for just under three years straight. During that time, Russia has applied substantial modifications, changing the engines, warheads, and even the color of these drones. Today, Iran reportedly regrets aspects of the arrangement under which it provided Russia with its homegrown drones.

Russia launched a record-breaking 6,129 attacks against Ukraine using Shahed drones this July, up from 5,337 attacks in June. On July 9 alone, Russia targeted Ukraine with 728 drones. Not content with these large-scale bombardments, Moscow aims to strike Ukraine with a single salvo of 2,000 Shahed drones!

 

Such enormous barrages are made possible by Russia’s localized production of Shahed-136s at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone over 600 miles east of Moscow. Iran permitted Russia to produce these drones as part of a $1.75 billion deal reached in early 2023. 

As early as February 2023, Shahed debris uncovered in Ukraine contained multipurpose warheads suitable for attacks against larger infrastructure targets like the Ukrainian electricity grid. Later that year, Shaheds appeared with new black coatings, paint containing carbon that makes them more difficult for radar to detect. Most recently, much faster, high-flying jet-powered Shaheds are forcing Ukraine to expend its most advanced surface-to-air missiles. Additionally, Russia is expanding its production facilities so that it can churn out even more modified Iranian-designed drones. 

What Iran is getting in return for this valuable assistance is far from clear. Reports of Shahed-136 transfers in 2022 led to speculation that Iran would receive the Su-35 Flanker fighter jets it had ordered before the war, possibly as part of a barter arrangement. Many speculated that a batch of two dozen factory-fresh Flankers Moscow had initially built for Egypt would now go to Iran. However, Russia recently delivered some of them to Algeria, suggesting that’s not the case, or that Iran will ultimately receive fewer than 24. Iranian journalist Saeed Azimi reported in 2023 that Tehran had ordered and paid for 50 Su-35s by 2021 but never received a single one. To date, Russia has only delivered Iran a small number of subsonic Yak-130 jet trainers.

These developments, coupled with the lack of substantial support it received from Russia during its 12-day war against Israel in June, have frustrated Iran.

Iran officially denies it sold Russia any military drones since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine started in February 2022, admitting only to selling Moscow some drones before the war. In reality, Tehran delivered several Shaheds via sea and air and supplied Russia with extensive technology transfers since early in the war. The 2023 contract initially envisaged the production of 6,000 Shaheds at Alabuga by September 2025, which Russia completed well ahead of schedule. The scale of its localized drone production exceeded initial expectations and also significantly lowered the per-unit cost of these drones for Moscow.

A report released by the Center for Advanced Defense Studies in May 2025 revealed that Russia has paid Iran in gold bars in return for its assistance in building this enormous new drone industry. The report uncovered at least $104 million worth of gold bars delivered as part of a contract between Alabuga and the Tehran-based company Sahara Thunder. Interestingly, CNN’s Friday report mentions that Sahara Thunder has complained about payments not being made. It’s unclear whether Iran only sought gold and wire transfer payments in return for this military support.

While hundreds of Iranian-designed drones rain down on Ukrainian cities every night, not a single new Russian-supplied Su-35 was available to defend Iranian airspace in the face of Israel’s unrelenting aerial bombardments in June. Consequently, Tehran’s reported frustration with the limited returns it’s getting from its arrangement with Moscow is hardly surprising. A Western intelligence official cited in CNN’s report also dubbed Russian cooperation with Iran as “purely transactional and utilitarian.”

Which leads one to again question what, if anything, Iran is getting from all of this.

Some analysts anticipate that Russia may eventually re-export some of its improved Shaheds back to Iran. However, there aren’t yet any indications Moscow has plans to do so. On the other hand, there are indications that Russia is providing North Korea the ability to manufacture Shaheds locally in return for Pyongyang’s extensive support for the war effort against Ukraine. Moscow has also delivered a medium-range Pantsir-S1 air defense missile system to Pyongyang and may soon supply its vintage air force with fourth-generation MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters.

The CNN report also briefly speculated that a July 11 flight of a Russian Ilyushin Il-76 could have contained components for an advanced S-400 air defense system, although that hasn’t been confirmed. Incidentally, such speculation comes almost exactly a year after reports indicating Russia begun delivering unspecified air defense equipment to Tehran. Whatever might have been in that delivery, it did not prevent Israel from striking Iran’s existing S-300 systems last Oct. 26 nor even hinder its unprecedented June air campaign.

While much remains unclear, it’s certainly plausible that Iran feels it has gotten the short end of the stick in its military-technical cooperation with Russia.