Russian Forces' "Tethered Goats" and Failed Hopes

The phrase 'tethered goats' may bring to mind the scene from Jurassic Park when a tethered goat was used to attract a tyrannosaurus rex. In Donbas, the Ukrainians are using trapped Russian units to lure Russian commanders to send reinforcements to try to free them - thus making them targets for drone and artillery slaughter in preplanned kill zones. 

The revelation - there and in the Kharkiv sector including Kupiansk and Liman - is that the Ukrainians currently control the battlefield and are dictating the timing and location of Russian assault attempts - all to the Russians bloody disadvantage. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Russian operations along the northern arm of their envelopment in the Dobropillia area appear to not only have been halted by the Ukrainians but the isolated Russian unit remnants there now appear to be ‘tethered goats’ used by the Ukrainians to lure other Russian units in to rescue them. These ‘rescuing Russian units’ then provide more targets for Ukrainian drone forces. At Kharkiv, the Russians are nowhere near recovery the territory that was liberated by Ukraine in the 2022 Kharkiv offensive. The most recent update from British intelligence shows, October, November and December are peak periods for fighting and casualties (at least for the Russians).

The frontline in eastern Ukraine remains a dynamic place. Both Ukraine and Russia have been able to seize territory in the past week, although in both cases the amount of territory involved was small.

One of the interesting areas of operations is in Kharkiv, where the Russians have been advancing west for sometime. Two main thrusts along the Kupyansk axis, as well as an axis of advance north of Lyman, are slowing moving forward although Russian casualties remain heavy. Euromaidan Press this week published a story on the destruction of large numbers of Russians who were occupying assembly areas and preparing to advance west in the axis north of Lyman. As the story notes:

Russian commanders appear to be preparing a classic combined assault, hoping to rush into the outskirts of the town, establish a foothold, and allow infiltration groups to spread behind Ukrainian lines. To accomplish this, large armored formations are already moving into staging areas, Russian engineer detachments work tirelessly to build pontoon crossings over the Zherebets River, and supplies are readied for the urban battle to begin.

A new tube artillery brigade recently augmented the 3rd Army Corps. The 52nd Separate Artillery Brigade, created and publicised through volunteer fundraising and unit announcements, has been added. Notably, this unit sports domestically produced Bohdana self-propelled artillery systems, alongside other 152-155 millimeter tube artillery. This addition places significantly more sustained firepower directly to the Lyman sector, able to engage river approaches, road nodes, and staging areas repeatedly and accurately, while moving away before being hit by Russian counter battery strikes.

Source: Euromaidan Press

Apparently, the Ukrainians were able to disrupt Russian preparations and undertake a significant level of attrition of Russian combat forces as well as their supporting engineer units.

In a separate report, the same publication explored Russia’s stunted campaign on the Kupiansk axis of advance. As the story notes:

Russia’s offensive against Kupiansk has turned into one of the greatest disasters of the war, a grinding campaign that devours entire brigades yet yields no meaningful gains. The fact that these fruitless but bloody efforts happen under the command of a general who was once a Ukrainian officer has started raising dreadful suspicion in the Russian ranks.

Source: Euromaidan Press

Ouch!

As the maps below show, the Russians have only made small gains in this supporting effort over the past 3 months. They are nowhere near recovery the territory that was liberated by Ukraine in the 2022 Kharkiv offensive.

Russia's Kharkiv campaign 1 July-4 Oct 2025. Source: DeepStateMAP

While the Russians have made more progress in their main effort on the Pokrovsk front, they are yet to complete the double envelopment of Pokrovsk and surrounding areas.

Russian operations along the northern arm of their envelopment in the Dobropillia area appear to not only have been halted by the Ukrainians but the isolated Russian unit remnants there now appear to be ‘tethered goats’ used by the Ukrainians to lure other Russian units in to rescue them. These ‘rescuing Russian units’ then provide more targets for Ukrainian drone forces.

Russia's main effort, the advance on Pokrovsk, 1 July - 4 October 2025. Source: DeepStateMAP

This part of the year, from October through to December, has historically been the highest casualty producing time of each year since 2022. As the most recent update from British intelligence (August 2025) shows, October, November and December are peak periods for fighting and producing casualties (at least for the Russians).

The most recent data on Russian casualties (see below) indicates that Russian casualty rates are around the same, or perhaps only slightly higher, than those in the mid-year period. This indicates that the very high casualty rates of 2024 may not be repeated this year, but Russian casualties will be above those for the same periods of 2023 and 2022. The causes of this lower average Russian casualty rate probably includes evolved Russian tactics, which focus on smaller teams conducting infiltration tactics, and reduces the opportunity for the Ukrainians to cause mass casualties.

Source: @ragnarbjartur

But given Putin’s likely desire to distract people at home from gas shortages with ‘victories’ in Ukraine, we should expect that the intensity of Russian ground operations to continue, or even slightly increase, in the next couple of months.