Putin Denied Victory As Ukraine's Pokrovsk Forces Conduct Raids, Take Out Tanks

It was supposed to be over by now. The Kremlin was ready to stage a victory parade through the rubble of Pokrovsk and Putin was itching to remind everyone that Russia's dominance over Ukraine was 'inevitable.' 

But then November 15 came and went - ten days ago now - and whaddya know - the Ukrainians are not just still fighting, they are counterattacking inside Pokrovsk. Russian tanks are reported in southern parts of the city because Ukrainian forces have knocked two of them out, but the battle continues and the definition of inevitability undergoes further scrutiny. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps is holding positions in central Pokrovsk in order to set conditions for "further de-occupation. "There really is evidence of Ukrainian troops along and south of the railway. Recent drone videos depict Ukrainian troopers from the elite 425th Assault Regiment moving in small numbers in the area. The 425th Assault Regiment troopers are undeniably conducting raids into central Pokrovsk. (And) the 155th Mechanized Brigade, which fights under the corps' command, have detected and knocked out at least two Russian tanks on Pokrovsk's southern outskirts. They "continuously conduct assault operations, search for and destroy the enemy and block his attempts to accumulate in the city."

The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps claimed its forces are holding positions in central Pokrovsk in order to set conditions for "further de-occupation."

At the same time, however, Russian tanks are creeping into the ruins of Pokrovsk from the south, adding armor and firepower to the steadily growing Russian force in the town.

And more Russians are reportedly on the way as the elite 76th Guard Air Assault Division, until recently sitting in reserve in southern Ukraine, redeploys to Donetsk Oblast in the east in order to make good the heavy losses the Russian Center Grouping of Forces suffered during its nearly yearlong siege of Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad.

All that is to say: be skeptical of the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps' claims. The Russians still have the momentum in and around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Further de-occupation is highly unlikely. What is likely is a gradual Ukrainian withdrawal to the north to new lines outside of the ruined towns.

 

“The defense forces maintain defined borders in the northern part of Pokrovsk,” the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps stated Friday. “We also control positions south of the railway," which cuts east to west across the center of Pokrovsk.

Those positions "are important for further de-occupation," the corps insisted. "The enemy is trying to cross the railway to increase the occupation zone of the city, but these attempts are blocked by our military.”

There really is evidence of Ukrainian troops along and south of the railway. Recent drone videos depict Ukrainian troopers from the elite 425th Assault Regiment moving in small numbers in the area. They "continuously conduct assault operations, search for and destroy the enemy and block his attempts to accumulate in the city," the regiment stated.

A map of ground control near Pokrovsk, via Deepstatemap

The 425th Assault Regiment troopers are undeniably conducting raids into central Pokrovsk. But it's probably inaccurate to say they're "holding positions," which implies around-the-clock presence. The last continuously held Ukrainian positions in Pokrovsk are strung out along a narrow strip in the very northern outskirts of the town.

A 1km corridor is all that's left

Those positions anchor a kilometer-wide corridor that represents the last relatively safe way out of nearby Myrnohrad for the few Ukrainian troops who still garrison that town. Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are two of the last urban strongpoints between a 150,000-strong Russian force and the twin cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in western Donetsk.

While the 425th Assault Regiment organizes raids into central Pokrovsk involving just a few troopers apiece, the Russian Center Group of Forces is pushing tanks into the town. In recent days, drones from the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps and the 155th Mechanized Brigade, which fights under the corps' command, have detected and knocked out at least two Russian tanks on Pokrovsk's southern outskirts.

More tanks are sure to follow. The Russian Center Group of Forces has kept hundreds of tanks and other armored vehicles in reserve while it steadily infiltrated Pokrovsk and the southern neighborhoods of Myrnohrad with small groups of infantry supported by drones.

 

The infantry accumulation, which took advantage of a desperate manpower shortage not only in the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps, but also across the Ukrainian armed forces, achieved critical mass in late October just the winter fog rolled in, offering further cover for the advancing Russians.

Yes, the Russians suffered horrific casualties. But with a five-to-one manpower advantage, they could afford to. And now the 76th GAAD is on the way to restore those losses to the Center Group of Forces and help the Russian accumulation in Pokrovsk become a consolidation.