Ukraine Counterattacks In Zaporizhzhia, As Russian Advance Reports "Overblown"

Just as in Pokrovsk, reports of Ukrainian forces retreating in the Zaporizhzhia-Huliapole sector appeal exaggerated, often by Russian disinformation. 

Analyses by reliable neutral observers reveal massive Russian casualties, confused fighting by small groups and no clear advantage nor major Russian advances. In fact, Ukrainian forces are expressing frustration with their own media for 'panicky lack of control.' JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

Ukrainian assault regiments in Zaporizhzhia are clearing it. A Friday morning briefing reported a relatively stable situation in the Hulyaipole sector with six Russian attacks attempted. All had been repelled. Deep State on Friday showed fighting had stalled in the sector. "The fighting there is a big mess. Small groups of Russian infantry are filtering through Ukrainian lines, Ukrainian counter-attackers hunt them down, and neither side seems to have a clear advantage. The Russians' (numerical) advantage is 8 to 1, but they are also dying in the same proportions. Ukrainian troops are advancing towards Uspenivka. Occasional raids by occupiers into settlements in this sector do not mean either tactical or strategic success." 

A senior Ukrainian assault troops commander on Thursday evening said reports of significant Russian ground gains in the southern Zaporizhzhia sector were overblown and that Ukraine’s military media and bloggers should “try and control panic…and try to calm down.”

“We soldiers respect your work and value it highly…but when our fighters read reports that a place is already captured by the enemy while they are in battle there, it undermines morale,” Colonel Valentyn Manko, commander of Ukraine’s assault troops forces, said in a Thursday evening video appeal to Ukrainian content creators and newsmen.

Manko’s comments came in the wake of Tuesday’s confirmation by AFU spokesmen that Ukrainian troops had pulled back from positions near five settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region, including the villages of Uspenivka and Novomykolaivka.

 

According to open-source reports, the Ukrainian withdrawal took place over the weekend. The attacks transferred more than 70 square kilometers (27 square miles) of Ukrainian territory to Russian control in less than three days of fighting – a pace of advance about twice the typical speed of Russian offensives since early 2023.

Russian infantry moving on foot and by motorcycle infiltrated into thinly held Ukrainian positions, whose troops fell back in good order, AFU spokesman Vladyslav Voloshyn said. Foggy and rainy weather, making Ukrainian drones less effective, assisted the Russian advance, he said.

 

Manko said that elite Ukrainian assault troop regiments are on the ground in the Zaporizhzhia sector and are methodically clearing it of the enemy. Physical checks of every home, cellar, or other potential hiding place are time-consuming and risky, he said, but those “mopping up” operations were moving forward, he said.

“We ask you (Ukrainian media and content creators) to be patient…and to trust only confirmed sources,” he said.

 

In a possible move calculated to buttress public confidence in Ukrainian defenses on the southern front, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday made a frontline visit to the Zaporizhzhia sector to discuss the battle situation with commanders and meet with troops. In comments published by the President’s office, Zelensky told the command group of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, “I thank you for your combat successes.”

Ukrainian lawmaker Mariana Bezhula, an outspoken critic of Zelensky’s war management and of Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) top commander Oleksandr Sysky, on Friday afternoon contradicted the official Kyiv statement, and warned Ukrainian defenses would soon collapse.

“The city of Hulyaipole…has become another victim of the chaos of military administration and the President’s desire to keep Syrsky (in command). Say goodbye to this Zaporizhzhia sector city. An evacuation of the civilian population has been announced there; it is being razed to the ground, bypassed from the sides, and soon the fighting will be inside Hulyaipole. Our history is being destroyed by the Russians, but they are helped by incompetent commanders and a lack of political will,” Bezhula said in a Telegram personal channel post.

 

A Friday morning situation report published by Ukraine’s Army General Staff (AGS) reported a relatively stable situation in the Hulyaipole sector with six Russian attacks attempted thus far in the day. All assaults had been repelled, that official report says.

Russian sources confirmed fighting in progress. A Thursday statement published by Komsomolskaya Pravda Zaporizhzhia, a Kremlin-controlled news outlet reporting on southern front combat operations, claimed troops from the 5th Guards Tank Brigade had captured a network of Ukrainian fortifications built around the nearby village of Danylivka and “inflicted heavy losses on the enemy.” A Wednesday Kremlin statement confirming the capture of the village of Uspenivka credited 394th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment for the capture and at that time claimed Russian attacks were accelerating “to widen and exploit tactical success.”

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in an analysis published Thursday evening, said Russian forces were continuing “to advance and to intensify offensive operations in the Hulyaipole and Velykomykhailivka directions, exploiting the effects of battlefield air interdiction [BAI] and poor weather that hampers Ukrainian drone observation.”

 

A Thursday evening battle report published by the 33rd Assault Regiment, a formation Manko said was in action in the Hulyaipole sector, said that its infantry teams were advancing against limited resistance and had reached the outskirts of the lost village of Uspenivka.

The upbeat 33rd Brigade report said in part: “The enemy’s (numerical) advantage is 8 to 1, but they are also dying in at least the same proportions. Our stormtroopers are advancing towards Uspenivka. Occasional raids by occupiers into settlements in this sector do not mean either tactical or strategic success for the enemy. The work of our assault troopers is continuing!”

The independent Ukrainian battle tracking group DeepState – one of the civilian monitoring agencies Colonel Manko had called out for alleged overreaction to Russian advances in the past – on Friday morning posted graphics showing fighting had generally stalled in the Zaporizhzhia-Hulyaipole sector.

Kyrll Sazonov, a 41st Brigade officer, in a Thursday analysis of the Zaporizhzhia-Hulyaipole battles called the fighting there “a big mess.” Small groups of Russian infantry are filtering through Ukrainian lines, and Ukrainian counter-attackers are seeking to hunt them down, and neither side seems to have a clear advantage, he said.