Ukraine's Pokrovsk Defense Stiffens As Russia Struggles Despite False Victory Claims

It may well be said of Putin that 'he doth protest too much.' Despite repeated Kremlin claims at escalating decibels that Russia's victory is inevitable, the reality on the ground is that Ukrainian forces remain in Pokrovsk and the surrounding area.

 

And not only that, but the Institute for the Study of War and other respected neutral observers continue to maintain that at current rates of advance, it would still take Russia another two years to take all of Donetsk but even that achievement is 'not inevitable.' In short, the Kremlin, facing an increasingly desperate economic and military capabilities crisis, is pushing for a Ukrainian capitulation it cannot impose on the battlefield - and may never be able to do so. JL

New Voice of Ukraine and Institute for the Study of War report:

The Kremlin has doubled down on the false narrative that Russian successes mean victory is inevitable. ISW continues to assess that “realities on the ground” show Russia faces many obstacles to seizing the rest of Donetsk Oblast. Fighting is ongoing in central Pokrovsk and Ukrainian forces are preventing Russian forces from accumulating enough forces to push into the northern part of the town. Russian forces are suffering heavy losses as Ukrainian forces counterattack in northern Pokrovsk, Ukrainian defenses remain strong, and Western weapons provisions to Ukraine remain consistent. Seasonal weather conditions are not permanent, and the rate of Russian advance will slow as weather stabilize. Russia would only seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast in August 2027 at this rate of advance

The Kremlin has intensified efforts to promote a false narrative about major gains by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and the inevitability of Moscow’s victory, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Nov. 23 assessment. 

According to ISW, Russia is attempting to pressure Ukraine and its Western partners into surrendering parts of Donetsk Oblast that its troops are unlikely to seize anytime soon.

ISW analysts reiterated that a Russian victory is far from inevitable. “Realities on the ground” continue to show that Moscow faces significant obstacles in its bid to capture the remaining Ukrainian-held areas of Donetsk Oblast. 

 

The Kremlin has been doubling down on the false narrative that Russian battlefield successes are so widespread that a Russian victory is inevitable.[23] ISW continues to assess that a Russian victory is not inevitable and that the “realities on the ground” show that Russia faces many obstacles in its path to seizing the rest of Donetsk Oblast. ISW assesses that the Russian rate of advance intensified since the Alaska summit, with Russian forces advancing an average of 9.3 square kilometers per day between August 15 and November 20. Russian gains notably have still been confined to a foot pace even during this period of faster advances. Russian forces would finalize the seizure of the remainder of Donetsk Oblast only in August 2027 at this rate of advance, assuming Russian forces can maintain the current faster rate of advance, Ukrainian defenses remain strong, and Western weapons provisions to Ukraine remain consistent. Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to push Ukraine to hand over this territory to save Russia significant amounts of time, effort, manpower, and resources that it could use elsewhere in Ukraine during renewed aggression.

The actual timeline on which Russian forces could potentially seize all of Donetsk Oblast is likely even longer. Foggy and rainy weather has contributed to Russia’s faster tempo in fall 2025, as Russian forces have intensified offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, while Ukrainian drone operations have not been as effective.[24] These seasonal weather conditions are not permanent, and the rate of Russian advance will likely slow as weather conditions stabilize. Russian advances since August 15 have also not faced heavily fortified, large population centers the size of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the Donetsk Oblast Fortress Belt.[25]

 

Russia’s recent rate of advance of 9.3 square kilometers per day was also notably across the entire theater, and the calculation that Russian forces could seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast by August 2027 is predicated on the assumption that Russian forces would commit the same forces, resources, and energy that they have deployed across the frontline since August 15 to fighting in Donetsk Oblast only. The Russian military command may prioritize offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast but is unlikely to completely deprioritize other sectors to maintain the strategic initiative and pressure along the entire front. Continued European military assistance and European-financed American weapons sales to Ukraine could also strengthen Ukraine’s defenses, possibly reversing some Russian gains and slowing this protracted timeline even further.

 

Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack and maintain a limited presence within and around Pokrovsk. The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces reported on November 23 that fighting is ongoing in central Pokrovsk and that Ukrainian forces are preventing Russian forces from accumulating enough forces to push into the northern part of the town.[29] The 7th Corps noted that Russian forces are suffering heavy losses during their attempts to advance into northern Pokrovsk via the Donetska Railway. A Russian milblogger also acknowledged on November 23 that Ukrainian forces maintain a scattered presence between Kozatske (east of Myrnohrad) and Promin (just south of Kozatske).[30] Russian milbloggers also claimed that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking in northern Pokrovsk and near Hryshyne (northwest of Pokrovsk).[31]

Ukrainian forces are also conducting tactical-level air interdiction lines of effort against Russian logistics that support the Pokrovsk effort. The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) reported on November 23 that Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against Russian forces participating in offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction.[32] The SSO reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian position on a dominant height at an industrial facility in Pokrovsk that Russian snipers used to exert fire control over the surrounding area. The SSO reported that Russian forces were also accumulating personnel in the area. The SSO reported that Ukrainian forces also struck a concentration in Shakhove (northeast of Pokrovsk and east of Dobropillya) of elements of the 336th Naval Infantry Brigade (Baltic Fleet) that were trying to close the encirclement around Pokrovsk from the north. The SSO reported that Ukrainian forces also struck a concentration point and drone ammunition depot of elements of the Russian 6th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, 41st Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]) and in occupied Sontsivka (in the Russian tactical rear 27 kilometers south of Pokrovsk). The SSO reported a strike against another ammunition depot in occupied Dokuchayevsk (in the Russian operational rear 71 kilometers southeast of Pokrovsk) from where Russian forces stored, distributed, and shipped equipment to forces attacking in the Pokrovsk direction.

 

The think tank noted that Russian advances accelerated after the August summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Between Aug. 15 and Nov. 20, Russian forces advanced by an average of 9.3 square kilometers per day. Even at that pace, however, ISW described the progress as limited and “infantry-paced.”

“At this rate, Russian forces would not complete the capture of the remaining parts of Donetsk Oblast until August 2027—assuming they are able to sustain the current tempo, Ukrainian defenses remain strong, and Western security assistance continues,” the report said.

Putin is trying to coerce Ukraine into surrendering territory in order to save Russia the time, manpower, and resources required for a full military campaign and to free up forces for future aggression, ISW assessed.

The think tank also cautioned that Moscow may need even more time to seize all of Donetsk Oblast. Fog and rainy weather contributed to faster Russian advances in recent weeks, ISW said, but those conditions are temporary, and the Russian offensive is likely to slow as the weather stabilizes.

ISW emphasized that Russian troops have not yet encountered large fortified cities like Slovyansk and Kramatorsk—the major strongholds forming Ukraine’s “fortress belt.”

Its projection that Russia could theoretically take the rest of Donetsk Oblast by August 2027 assumes Moscow would reallocate the same volume of troops and equipment currently operating across the entire front and concentrate them solely on the Donetsk axis—an unlikely scenario, analysts said.

The Russian military may increase its focus on Donetsk, ISW noted, but it is unlikely to scale back operations along other parts of the front where the Kremlin wants to maintain momentum and pressure.

Continued Western military assistance would further strengthen Ukraine’s defenses and could negate many of Russia’s recent gains, the report concluded.