Russian Losses Exceed Recruitment As Ukraine Attacks Wipe Out Entire Units

In a truly significant development as 2025 draws to a close, Ukraine's increasingly effective targeting of Russian units across the front has led, for the first time, to Russian casualties exceeding the Kremlin's monthly recruitment efforts. In one particular case on the Dnipetropavlovsk sector, a Russian motorized infantry platoon rotating to replace other troops on the front line, advanced without precautions. They were quickly identified and targeted by Ukrainian drones which annihilated the entire unit. 

As a number of articles have made clear, Russia is finding it increasingly difficult to recruit volunteers with financial incentives, has largely run through its population of convicts and prisoners and is finding its pressganging of hapless Indians, Africans, Central Asians, Cubans and other misled global minorities are more trouble than they are worth. This downturn in manpower availability may be why the Kremlin, despite its continued intransigence, may be setting the stage for some kind of deal in the new year. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

In recent weeks, Russian losses exceeded Russian recruitment. The Russian military may finally be shrinking. This week Ukrainian bomber drones massacred an entire platoon of Russian infantry marching along a road five miles east of Novopavlivka. A Russian unit of the 27th Motor Rifle Division tried to rotate forces along the front line. But the Russians took few of the usual precautions. They moved out in an orderly column without wearing thermal cloaks that might’ve masked their body heat in with the snowy landscape on Ukrainian drones’ infrared sensors. The Kremlin can afford to lose 50 infantry. But it can’t afford to frequently lose 50 infantry. Russian manages to recruit enough fresh troops every month to make good its losses—30,000 or so—but only barely.

The village of Novopavlivka, in eastern Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, lies roughly halfway between between two eastern hotspots: the ruins of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast and the ruins of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Capturing Novopavlivka would bring the Russians a few miles closer to the city of Pavlohrad, a strategic hub for Ukrainian forces in Dnipropetrovsk. But that effort suffered a setback this week when Ukrainian bomber drones massacred an entire platoon of Russian infantry marching along a road apparently around five miles east of Novopavlivka.

Yes, the Kremlin can afford to lose 50 infantry. But it can’t afford to frequently lose 50 infantry. Russian manages to recruit enough fresh troops every month to make good its losses—30,000 or so—but only barely.

In fact, it’s possible that in recent weeks, Russian losses finally exceeded Russian recruitment. The Russian military may finally be shrinking the way the Ukrainian military has been shrinking for many months now.

One night apparently this week, a Russian unit—possibly the 27th Motor Rifle Division—reportedly tried to rotate forces along the front line near Novopavlivka, where Russian and Ukrainian troops have been taking turns attacking in recent days.

But the Russians took few of the usual precautions. They moved out in an orderly column, seemingly without wearing the thermal cloaks that might’ve masked their body heat and helped them blend in with the snowy landscape on Ukrainian drones’ infrared sensors.