Russian forces are unable to rebuild strategic reserves and offset massive losses in Ukraine, losing the equivalent of a division every 10 days in 2025. Russia formed only four new divisions in 2025, far short of its plan for17 divisions and nine brigades. Even these four new divisions are not staffed to full strength. Russian forces have shifted away from forming motorized rifle divisions in favor of assault and light divisions with less armor. Russia's inability due equipment losses, insufficient production have forced it to adapt its forces for positional warfare. Russian forces are unlikely to recruit more than 70,000 for a strategic reserve and will suffer even higher losses in 2026 if they attempt to assault fortified Ukrainian positions in the belt of Donetsk fortress cities.Russian forces are likely unable to simultaneously rebuild strategic reserves and offset massive losses in Ukraine, losing the equivalent of a division every 10 days in 2025, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said in its Jan. 7 assessment.
ISW analysts highlighted data from Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets, who reported on Jan. 7 that Russia formed only four new divisions in 2025, far short of its plan for about 17 divisions and up to nine brigades.
Even these four new divisions are likely not staffed to full doctrinal strength, the Institute noted.
Mashovets added that Russian forces have shifted away from forming motorized rifle divisions — traditional structures in the Russian army before the invasion of Ukraine — in favor of assault infantry and light divisions with limited armored vehicles.
Russia's inability to form divisions like the mechanized ones that existed before 2022 aligns with ISW's view that equipment losses in the war, insufficient production of infantry fighting vehicles, and a tactical shift toward mass infantry attacks and infiltration missions rather than mechanized assaults have forced Russia to adapt its forces for positional warfare.
Mashovets also estimated that in 2026, Russian forces are unlikely to recruit more than 70,000 service members for a strategic reserve, which would be insufficient to form the planned 17 divisions.
In late December, former head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov said Russia has not yet built up a strategic reserve to the desired level because it continually deploys its operational reserve to ongoing combat operations in Ukraine, ISW stated.
Data from the Ukrainian General Staff indicate Russia lost about 416,570 troops in Ukraine throughout 2025, averaging 1,141 killed or wounded daily. That equates to personnel losses on the scale of a division every 10 days, ISW calculated.
Mashovets suggested Russian forces will likely suffer even higher losses in 2026 if they attempt to assault fortified Ukrainian positions in Donetsk Oblast, including the belt of fortress cities (Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk).
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