Ukraine Sets Goal of 50,000 Russians Losses Per Month, An Irreplaceable Level

This should worry the Kremlin, because unlike Russia's military, Ukraine has been very good about achieving the goals it sets. 

Ukraine is already killing or wounding 35,000 Russians a month, a level the Kremlin is struggling to replace. The Ukrainian assessment is that 50,000 Russians eliminated a month is impossible for Russia to overcome. Ukraine has also determined that between 70-90% of Russian casualties are the result of Ukrainian drone attacks, so, logically, it is bolstering its drone forces and the lethality of the weapons they are able to use. It is this sort of dispassionate, analytical and strategic thinking that has utterly stymied Putin's attempt to defeat Ukraine. JL

Matthew Loh reports in Business Insider:

Ukraine's new defense minister has set a new 'core strategic objective' for its forces to kill 50,000 Russian troops a month. "The objective is to impose costs on Russia that it cannot bear." Ukrainian troops are already documenting 35,000 kills every month.  Ukraine's commander in chief, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said in December that his forces had, for the first time, killed and wounded more Russian soldiers in one month than the Kremlin had called up for the same time period. Ukraine intends to increase combat kills by diverting more troops to drone units, responsible for 70 to 90% of casualties inflicted.

Ukraine's new defense minister has set a new goal for its forces to kill 50,000 Russian troops a month, a sharp increase from the losses that Kyiv says it's inflicting on the Kremlin now.

In a meeting with reporters on Tuesday, Mykhailo Fedorov said the new figure would be a core "strategic objective" for Ukraine.

"The objective is to impose costs on Russia that it cannot bear. In this way to force peace through strength," Fedorov said.

Notably, he specified only battlefield fatalities.

The new standard comes as Russia intensified its offensive in some areas of the front lines last year, aiming to take key cities such as Pokrovsk. The nature of its operations — often reliant on continuous high-casualty infantry attacks — has led to political discussion in recent months that the Kremlin may soon reach a point where it will lose more soldiers than it can recruit.

Ukraine's commander in chief, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said in December that his forces had, for the first time, killed and wounded more Russian soldiers in one month than the Kremlin had called up for the same time period.

Fedorov, who was confirmed in his role last week, said on Tuesday that Ukrainian troops are already documenting 35,000 kills every month via video.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte cited another figure while speaking in Brussels on January 16, saying that 20,000 to 25,000 Russian troops were dying every month.

While differing significantly, both figures indicate that Russia is fighting the war at a high cost.

Rutte said the death rate has become "unsustainable" for Russia, and drew comparisons to the Soviet Union's losses during the 1979 invasion of Afghanistan, when an estimated 15,000 Soviet troops died every month over nine years.

Likewise, Fedorov expressed hopes that ramping up a focus on lethality will exhaust Russia's war machine.

"If we reach the figure of 50,000, we will see what happens to the enemy. They treat people as a resource, and problems with that resource are already obvious," he said.

Russian soldiers train in Rostov-on-Don in mid-January.Arkadii Budnitskii/Anadolu via Getty Images

Ukraine hopes that Russia will run out of troops

Russia does not disclose how many of its troops are wounded or killed during the war. However, international and Ukrainian analyses say the number is likely tracking past 1 million people over nearly four years of war.

The UK's defense ministry said in early January that the Kremlin may have suffered at least 1.2 million total casualties, which includes both wounded and deceased, since February 2022.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin has relied largely on hefty sign-up bonuses to attract local contract soldiers, though it's also been found to sustain troop levels through other means, such as by recruiting from prisons or hiring foreigners via informal channels.

Some of those strategies may be waning. On Tuesday, the Russian independent media outlet Vertska reported that contract soldier sign-ups were slowing in some areas of the country.

Data from an unnamed source in the Moscow mayor's office, it wrote, showed that the capital had seen a roughly 25% annual drop in recruitment in 2025.

It's unclear how Fedorov intends to specifically target increasing combat kills. He said in his opening remarks to Ukrainian lawmakers last week that he intended to divert more staffing to drone units. Drones are thought to be responsible for roughly 70 to 90% of casualties inflicted during the war.

His new objective also comes against the backdrop of the US attempting to negotiate a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Many of the Kremlin's latest war actions, such as attempts to take Pokrovsk, have been seen in Ukraine as efforts to posture into a position of strength.

At 32, Fedorov is Ukraine's youngest-ever defense minister. He's begun his new appointment with promises of aggressive reform of the military's structure and how it distributes resources to its fighters.

Fedorov was previously Ukraine's minister for digital transformation.