Ukraine's Drones Now Killing Russian Troops Faster Than Kremlin Can Replace Them

For the first time in this war, Ukrainian drones are killing or severely wounding Russian troops at a rate faster than the Kremlin can replace them. 

This means that the Ukrainians are killing or maiming approximately 1,000 Russians a day, or 30,000 to 35,000 a month. That has been true during various battles in the past two years, but what has changed is that Russia cannot no longer afford to lose those troops with impunity because the Kremlin is having trouble replacing them. As the new winter campaign season dawns, Russia faces determined and well supplied Ukrainian forces on most fronts, including Pokrovsk, but should it shift its attention to other Fortress Belt cities in Donbas, Russian unit attrition is likely to be even higher. JL

Sinead Baker reports in Business Insider:

For the first time in the war, Ukraine's drones are killing or seriously wounding Russia's soldiers as fast as it can get new troops into the field. December was the first month in which Ukraine's uncrewed systems units "neutralized" about as many Russian servicemen as it called up in a month. In December, the number of targets that were hit or destroyed by drones rose by 31% and that the number of Russian personnel hit rose by more than 25%. Ukrainian and Western intel assessments point to substantial attrition. Russia has a much larger population to draw soldiers from than Ukraine but estimates put Russian losses at 1,000 troops a day.

Ukraine's top general said that for the first time in the war, its drones are killing or seriously wounding Russia's soldiers as fast as it can get new troops into the field.

 

Drones are the top battlefield threat, responsible for the most casualties in this war. Ukraine relies heavily on them, especially the cheap first-person-view drones, as solutions to its manpower and equipment shortages.

Ukraine's commander in chief, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Tuesday in a Telegram post that December was the first month in which Ukraine's uncrewed systems units "neutralized" about as many Russian servicemen as it called up in a month.

 

He said video confirmed 33,000 Russian losses last month. "The real losses of the occupiers are greater," the general said.

Syrskyi did not provide a number for the number of Russian soldiers called up. Business Insider is unable to independently confirm Syrskyi's claims.

Russia hasn't provided official casualty figures. As for the number of new Russian soldiers sent to Ukraine each month, a US assessment put the number around 30,000 last April. In May, however, the Russian president said that the number was twice that. A Ukrainian intelligence assessment in December said that Russia fulfilled its 2025 mobilization target of 403,000, an average of more than 36,000 a month.

Russia both conscripts and recruits soldiers for the war. Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP

Russia's armed forces in Ukraine are a mixed bag of contract soldiers who volunteer for the fight — Russia attracts volunteers with various perks, like signing bonuses — conscripts pulled in through draft cycles, and other sources. Russia has previously recruited people out of its prisons.

Though exact losses are unclear, Ukrainian and Western intel assessments point to substantial attrition. Russia has a much larger population to draw soldiers from than Ukraine, which is also said to have suffered significant losses in this war. Some estimates put Russian losses at 1,000 troops a day.

While Russia has a larger population to pull from, it has tried to avoid repeated large-scale involuntary mobilizations.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly promised not to send conscripts to the front lines, fearing fallout. It has limited what Russia can do with them, even though widespread reporting and captured conscripts say assurances have been misleading.

Ukraine's growing drone power

Syrskyi called 2025 a great breakthrough for Ukraine's drone war and pledged that it would not stop, with plans to grow capabilities further in 2026.

He said that in December, the number of targets that were hit or destroyed by drones rose by 31% and that the number of Russian personnel hit rose by more than 25%.

 

Ukraine is making more and more of its own drones. AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka

Syrskyi said in November that uncrewed systems were responsible for about 60 % of all enemy targets hit. That figure has also been higher, at times, in front-line areas.

Drones directly attack troops and equipment — either by carrying explosives or dropping weapons like grenades — and they also collect intelligence that shapes how armies employ other forces. Even inexpensive drones have had an outsized impact, destroying sophisticated, multimillion-dollar systems such as tanks.

Russia and Ukraine are locked in a drone development race to field greater numbers and more advanced drones, as well as counter-drone technology.

 

Syrskyi warned that Russia also has ambitious plans for its drones. He said that Russia copied Ukraine by creating a separate part of the military for uncrewed systems and said that it has 80,000 servicemen. He said Russia plans to expand that to 165,500 this year and to almost 210,000 by 2030.

There are so many drones in the sky that Ukrainian soldiers previously told Business Insider that they were sometimes unable to tell which side any belonged to and would instead try to bring them all down just to be on the safe side.