Why Kyiv's Plan To Inflict Greater Casualties On Russian Forces Is Achievable

A crucial and significant difference in how the Ukrainians and Russians are waging war on the battlefield can be seen in the briefing given by Ukraine's new defense minister in which he outlined his plan to increase the number of Russian casualties while reducing Ukraine's.

The key is less in the numbers used, but in the fact that the Ukrainian strategy is based on a detailed analysis of the objective accompanied by a systemic plan for bolstering, arming and increasing the lethality of the units needed to achieve it. That is organization and management tied to obtaining stated strategic results. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

This week the new Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said Ukrainians plans were to cause 50,000 Russian casualties a month in 2026. “Management must be built around those capable of achieving defined goals. If people don’t demonstrate measurable results, they can’t remain in the system. The second strategic objective is to kill 50,000 Russians per month. Last month, 35,000 were killed; these losses are verified on video. Shortages are already evident.” The Ukrainians believe it is possible. They provided an intelligence briefing to the British a week ago which claimed that during the fighting for Kupiansk, they were able to inflict 27 casualties on the Russians for every one of their own.

This week the new Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov gave his most explicit remarks so far on Ukrainian battlefield plans for 2026. Speaking to the press early in the week Fedorov said that Ukrainians plans were to cause 50,000 Russian casualties a month in 2026.

Fedorov actually said “kill” but from his use of language, it seems more to be a reference to total casualties caused. For instance, he said that now the Ukrainians were up to causing 35,000 kills a month—but that seems to be the total casualties inflicted on the Russian military. Here is an excerpt from the Kyiv Independent story on Fedorov’s talk.

Ukraine aims to “kill 50,000 Russians per month,” the country’s new defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, said during a meeting with the media.

Laying out his plan in his new role, Fedorov said he had two priorities, the first of which is “management.”

“Management must be built around those capable of achieving defined goals. If people don’t demonstrate measurable results, they can’t remain in the system,” said.

“The second strategic objective is to kill 50,000 Russians per month,” he said.

“Last month, 35,000 were killed; all these losses are verified on video. If we reach 50,000, we will see what happens to the enemy. They view people as a resource, and shortages are already evident.”

At the same time, the Ukrainians are trying to correct for their manpower issues by drastically reducing their own casualties. Understanding that having too many troops near the frontline is a road to disaster, they want to see this rise in Russian casualties be accompanied by a fall in their own. Its a tall ask, but it is exactly the right way to fight the war.

And the Ukrainians believe it is possible. They provided an intelligence briefing to the British just over a week ago which claimed that during the fighting for Kupiansk, they were able to inflict 27 casualties on the Russians for every one of their own.

Btw, I will withhold judgement on believing anything quite so extreme as 27-1, but it is worth noting that this is their position.

This kind of thinking, btw, was exactly what I tried to tell you the plan was well over a month ago. In the interview with General Havrylov given in December, he laid out this plan exactly.

And in this piece, I described specifically how the Ukrainians were fighting around Kupiansk (very small numbers of highly trained soldiers acting with great intelligence and precision to accomplish specific missions).

The Fewer Soldiers On The Front Line The Better Phillips P. OBrien · December 23, 2025 Read full story

So Ukraine now has a plan going forward. Making it become a reality will be no easy task—but if they can do it, the Russian military will start wasting as an asset.