In January, Ukraine Killed 8,000 More Russians Than the Kremlin Conscripted

Ukraine is well on its way to achieving its stated strategic goal for 2026 of killing or disabling 50,000 Russians a month. That is the number, the Ukrainians believe, at which the Kremlin will no longer be able to sustain its invasion. 

In January, Ukrainian forces killed 30, 618 Russians, about 8,000 more than the Kremlin conscripted. In December, Ukraine inflicted casualties equal to the number conscripted or recruited but for the entire year of 2025, the Ukrainians killed or wounded more men than Russia added to its forces. The numbers are not trending in Moscow's direction. JL

RFU News reports:

Ukraine drove Russia's troop balance negative for the second time. Ukraine verified 30,618 Russian personnel kills during January, while Moscow managed to recruit or contract just 22,000 troops over the same period. The resulting deficit of 8,618 marks the second month when Russia lost more troops than it could replace. The goal is to ramp monthly kills to 50,000, "the optimal level at which Moscow will begin to seriously weigh what it is doing." The January numbers suggest Ukraine's forces are currently delivering about 60% of that target from drones alone, with room to scale further. Russia's full-year 2025 losses of 410,000 troops exceeded the 406,000 Moscow claimed to have recruited, with December's kills roughly matching recruitment. 

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) drove Russia's troop balance negative for the second time since the full-scale invasion, with verified drone kills far exceeding Moscow's January recruitment, SBS commander Robert "Madiar" Brovdi reported. His forces flew 140,677 combat sorties in January alone, averaging three sorties per minute, while destroying thousands of pieces of Russian equipment alongside the personnel losses.

As Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine approaches the end of its fourth year, Moscow continues its ground attacks across the frontline, sustaining heavy losses in the drone-saturated battle zone. The balance between Moscow's ability to feed troops into the front and Kyiv's capacity to eliminate them has emerged as the central variable determining whether Russia can sustain its offensives, the Ukrainian leadership and military currently believe. 

Russia's January recruitment fell 8,618 short of drone-verified kills

Brovdi reported that Ukraine's drone units verified 30,618 Russian personnel kills during January, while Moscow managed to recruit or contract just 22,000 troops over the same period. The resulting deficit of 8,618 marks only the second month since 2022 when Russia lost more troops than it could replace. Brovdi called the result "not a reason for applause," stressing that the minimum monthly task is to equalize the balance between incoming and eliminated Russian troops. 

The real goal, he said, is to gradually ramp monthly kills to 50,000. Brovdi's January numbers suggest that Ukraine's drone forces are currently delivering about 60% of that target from drones alone, with room to scale further.

Russia's mobilization plan for 2026 targets over 400,000 new troops and Moscow would handle that regardless of circumstances, the commander said.

SBS claimed one in three January kills

Brovdi's own SBS Group accounted for 9,381 of the 30,618 total verified kills — roughly every third eliminated Russian soldier, according to the report. That figure is 22% below December's record, when SBS pilots struck 12,037 out of a total 33,019. Two factors drove the slowdown: persistent fog and blizzards throughout January, and a decrease in Russian assault activity, the commander said.

The broader drone kill count also dipped from December's record, though it remained well above the autumn pace. In November 2025, Ukrainian drones struck 26,000 Russian troops; in October, 24,000, according to the official data.

Earlier, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that January's overall Russian losses — nearly 32,000 killed and seriously wounded across all weapon types — exceeded recruitment. Syrskyi had disclosed in late December 2025 that Russia's full-year 2025 losses of 410,000 troops exceeded the 406,000 Moscow claimed to have recruited, with December's kills roughly matching recruitment. 

37,000 FPV drones and 140,000 sorties — what it took

To achieve these results last month, the SBS Group expended 37,054 FPV drones, 1,119 night bombers, 1,301 fixed-wing interceptors, 971 interceptor copters, and 936 Mavic drones, Brovdi said. The 140,677 combat sorties averaged 4,500 per day — three per minute around the clock for all 31 days of January. The daily average hit 303 Russian troops and 896 targets. 

Brovdi says his forces destroyed 1,012 enemy drone pilot launch points, 1,404 pieces of drone operator equipment, 2,128 Russian reconnaissance and strike drones, 478 artillery systems, 80 tanks, 88 armored vehicles, 44 air defense and MLRS systems, 27 radars, 1,705 logistics vehicles, and about 28,000 pieces of other equipment during January.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously set the strategic benchmark at 50,000 Russian losses per month — a level he says Russia would most likely be unable to replenish. 

"It's the optimal level at which Russia will begin to seriously weigh what it is doing and what it is fighting for," Zelenskyy noted.