Russia says Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia. The claim surfaced just as limits on Russian access to Starlink began disrupting frontline communications. (But) The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian forces fabricated reports of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in order to walk back earlier false claims about their own advances in the Huliaipole and Oleksandrivka sectors. Russian units overstated territorial gains and later invoked Ukrainian counterattacks as an explanation for why those positions weren't held. Rather than a map-changing push, Ukraine’s probing, local breakthroughs and attrition are degrading Russian logistics and forcing Moscow to plug gaps. “With Trump pushing for a deal, both sides know this is about shaping the political atmosphere in which a deal might be forced.”
Russia says Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia. The claim surfaced just as new limits on Russian access to Starlink began disrupting frontline communications.
Analysts say the counteroffensive narrative coincides with earlier disputed claims of Russian territorial gains. Now, as communications falter because of the Starlink restrictions, the narrative has shifted to Ukrainian counterattacks.
The fighting comes amid mounting diplomatic pressure. The United States wants a peace deal in place by June, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. That timeline raises the stakes along a front where Russia has maintained sustained pressure.
Former British soldier Shaun Pinner, who fought in Mariupol in 2022 before being captured, told me in an interview that “the stakes are huge because perception now feeds directly into diplomacy.” He added, “If Ukraine looks stalled, the pressure to accept a bad deal increases. But if Russia looks like it’s bleeding capability, its leverage in any talks collapses.” The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian forces likely fabricated reports of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in order to walk back earlier false claims about their own advances in the Huliaipole and Oleksandrivka sectors.
“Not everything that’s an assault is a counteroffensive,” wrote Oleksandr Solonko, a Ukrainian soldier, on X, pushing back against the narrative.According to the ISW, Russian units had overstated territorial gains in the area and later invoked alleged Ukrainian counterattacks as an explanation for why those positions were never actually held.
Russian military bloggers amplified the narrative, blaming fog and degraded communications following restrictions on Russian access to Starlink for supposed Ukrainian armored thrusts near Ternuvate and surrounding settlements. “Units and formations of the ‘Vostok’ Group of Forces continue their offensive west of Huliaipole and are repelling another enemy counteroffensive,” wrote Yuri Kotenok on his Telegram channel. ISW noted that Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces, said Ukrainian forces retain control of Ternuvate and that Russian troops staged a failed flag raising stunt to fabricate proof of its capture. He added that the frontline remains 10–15 kilometers away and dismissed claims of a Ukrainian counteroffensive near the Dnipropetrovsk–Zaporizhzhia border.
Pinner said the “counteroffensive” framing reflects narrative warfare more than a dramatic operational shift. “A lot of what we’re seeing right now from both sides is narrative warfare, more so from Russia, rather than some dramatic shift in battlefield reality,” he said.
Rather than a map-changing push, he described Ukraine’s actions as a pressure campaign — probing attacks, local breakthroughs and attrition aimed at degrading Russian logistics and forcing Moscow to plug gaps across an already stretched front.
Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, wrote on Telegram that Ukrainian forces have retaken positions near the village of Ternuvate.
Ukrainian commanders have acknowledged activity in the sector. “There are certain successes by the Armed Forces that I cannot disclose because the operation is still ongoing,” said Dmytro Filatov, commander of the 1st Separate Assault Regiment, speaking on the Ukrainian military channel Army TV on Feb. 10. He added that information circulating on enemy Telegram channels broadly corresponds to reality. The fighting comes after months of increased pressure on Ukraine’s southeastern front. Over the past two months, Kyiv has concentrated some of its best-equipped assault groups around Huliaipole in an effort to slow Russia’s advance, including elements of the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade.
The New York Times described Russia’s most threatening push as occurring in southeastern Zaporizhzhia, warning that battlefield gains there could translate into greater diplomatic pressure on Kyiv.
Huliaipole has long served as a critical strongpoint in the defense of the regional capital, Zaporizhzhia, roughly 40 miles to the west. The town, an industrial crossroads and the hometown of Ukrainian anarchist Nestor Makhno, was once one of the most stable sectors of the frontline. But as Russian forces push deeper into eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, that stability has eroded, bringing Moscow’s troops incrementally closer to the city of around 700,000 people. According to Ukrinform, the number of combat clashes in areas controlled by Ukraine rose 18 percent in January to 1,326 engagements. In the Huliaipole sector alone clashes increased by 62 percent, reflecting how sharply pressure has intensified there. The NYT also noted that, stretched by Russian assaults across a 700-mile front line, Ukraine lacks sufficient troops to defend every sector equally, creating vulnerabilities that allow Moscow’s forces to advance more easily.
In November, a Ukrainian unit withdrew from positions near Huliaipole in what officials later described as an uncoordinated retreat. The move exposed “one of the flanks of our operational structure in this area, and the personnel of the adjacent unit found themselves without cover,” said Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces. He added that Russian forces exploited the gap amid difficult weather conditions.
Between September and November Russian forces captured more than 15 villages in southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast according to the Finnish open source intelligence collective Black Bird Group. Analysts point to Ukraine’s manpower shortages and reliance on under-resourced territorial defense units as key vulnerabilities.
Danylo Makarov, a drone pilot with the 108th Territorial Defense Brigade, told me in an interview that “the situation isn’t great. The enemy keeps pushing every day.” His unit has been fighting in Zaporizhzhia for several years. He said Russian forces are throwing large amounts of infantry into local assaults and striking populated areas with glide bombs, while Ukrainian units face mounting personnel and resource constraints.
Starlink’s Role in Shifting Momentum
The timing of Russia’s claims is notable. They follow new limits on Russian access to Starlink that have already disrupted Russian frontline operations.
Russian strike drones, which are used to hit high-value targets up to 200 kilometers behind the front, have relied on Starlink for connectivity, including those operated by elite Russian drone formations such as Rubicon.
With that capability degraded Russian forces appear to be losing momentum. But Russian drone pressure has not disappeared. Oleksandr Zholob, a drone pilot with the 23rd Mechanized Brigade, told me he has seen no pause in Russian drone activity along the Zaporizhzhia–Donetsk direction. He said Russian forces are now launching roughly three times as many drones as before.
Other Ukrainian soldiers say some parts of the front have seen reduced intensity. “It’s much calmer,” Anatolii Tkachenko, a mortar battery commander with the 92nd Brigade fighting near Huliaipole, told me. “I think they’ve been slowed down for at least a month.”
Localized Gains, No Strategic Breakthrough
For now, the fighting near Zaporizhzhia appears to be a localized Ukrainian effort to stabilize a weakened sector rather than the opening of a major counteroffensive. When asked about the ongoing Ukrainian attacks, Tkachenko said he couldn’t provide an update on what is going on, but that “things are good.”
While fighting there remains limited, pressure is intensifying farther east around Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian positions are deteriorating under sustained Russian assault, according to the Ukrainian analytical project DeepState.
Ruslan Tsarenok, stationed on the Donetsk front with the 27th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, told me that his unit expects to be redeployed to the Zaporizhzhia direction in March. He said Russian forces are exerting enormous pressure on Ukrainian positions in Donetsk Oblast.
“With Trump pushing for a deal, both sides know this isn’t just about trenches and villages anymore; it’s about shaping the political atmosphere in which a deal might be forced or resisted,” Pinner said.
Starlink restrictions appear to have disrupted Russian operations, though broader battlefield dynamics remain largely intact. Moscow continues to probe a stretch Ukrainian front even as both sides seek to shift perceptions of momentum.
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