Ukraine's Armor Offensive Scores Major Gains As Russian Drones, Comms Disabled

When Ukrainian forces first became aware of the cutoff for stolen or smuggled Russian Starlink terminals - then compounded by a Kremlin ban on Telegram usage - they believed they had a tactical opportunity to strengthen their positions, particularly in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. 

A week later and this has grown to  become a full fledged counteroffensive which has recaptured hundreds of kilometers of territory while threatening Russia's southern field army with encirclement and possible destruction. That the Ukrainians have been able to optimize this breakthrough so rapidly speaks both to their capabilities for adaptation and exploitation, but also to the weakened state of the Russian military. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Ukrainian forces aren’t just counterattacking in southeastern Ukraine, they’re counterattacking in armored vehicles—a rare event as drones made mechanized assaults suicidal. Ukrainian forces are ranging across the miles-wide “gray zone” as the loss of Starlink and Telegram access has thrown Russian forces into disarray and made the Ukrainian counteroffensive possible. Taking advantage of the collapse in Russian communications, Ukrainian troops are counterattacking all along the 700-mile front. In Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, they have pushed south of the Vovcha River. Their aim is to cut off and destroy the Russian 36th Field Army which remains powerful but exposed.

Ukrainian armored vehicles have pushed south across the Vovcha River, which threads east to west across Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in southeastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces aren’t just counterattacking in southeastern Ukraine, they’re counterattacking in armored vehicles—a vanishingly rare event as the proliferation of tiny explosive drones has made mechanized assaults harder if not suicidal.

That Ukrainian mech troops can operate in the wide gray zone separating clear zones of Ukrainian and Russian control speaks to the deep disarray in Russian communications that has made the current Ukrainian counteroffensive possible.

What that means, in practice, is that heavy Ukrainian forces are ranging across the miles-wide “gray zone” separating Ukrainian and Russian lines in the southeast. Taking advantage of a profound collapse in Russian communications last week, Ukrainian troops are counterattacking all along the 700-mile front of Russia’s 48-month wider war on Ukraine.

Most of the counterattacks are strictly local—and strictly serve to firm up Ukrainian defenses. But not in Dnipropetrovsk and neighboring Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where as recently as a month ago the Russians were advancing and the Ukrainians were falling back.

In Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, a pair of powerful Ukrainian battlegroups is reshaping the battlefield. They’re clearing the gray zone of Russian infiltrators—and may be in a position to extend their attack toward the zone of clear Russian control. The twin moves - the loss of Starlink and Telegram access - threw the Russian armed forces in Ukraine into disarray. Sensing opportunity, the Ukrainian armed forces went on the attack in several key sectors. A week later, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the Ukrainian attacks aren’t limited to local clearing operations meant to stabilize Ukrainian defenses.

It’s apparent Ukrainian commanders have a grander plan. In Zaporizhzhia Oblast in southeastern Ukraine, they aim to cut off and destroy a powerful but exposed Russian field army. “The main Ukrainian counteroffensive is aimed at encircling and then defeating the Russian 36th Army.”