Ukraine's Counterattack Is Exposing Russian Lies About Who's Winning

Ukraine's counteroffensive in the southern oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk has taken several hundred kilometers of territory, disrupted Russia's own offensive plans - and, most importantly - exposed how Russian commanders are lying to the Kremlin about the progress of the war.

Putin's refusal to negotiate seriously is based in part on his belief that his forces are advancing and wearing down the Ukrainians. But the recent Ukrainian advances, which are far more noteworthy than anything the Russians have achieved in months, has been designed to some degree to undermine the Kremlin's already shaky trust in its military by showing that the glowing reports of ground taken and held are illusory. Much of the land the Ukrainians have taken was never really 'held' in the classic sense: it was gray area in which competing teams of Russian and Ukrainian scouts hunted each other. Now that the Ukrainians have actually moved in force, Putin has further reason for concern as his supporters in the Trump administration must face the reality of their putative ally's weakness. JL

 
Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The Russians never actually controlled the area the Ukrainians have taken back. The Russians had troops there, but they were the small infiltration units. As such, the Russians did not have control and the Ukrainians have cleared them out. This would be revealing. The Russians (claimed) they were making major advances in this region and the Russian military was telling Putin that. The Russians regularly claim greater advances than they actually are able to undertake (remember Kupiansk?). Putin was, once again, being given an overoptimistic picture of what his military was doing . The Ukrainians are trolling the Russians: their boasting and lack of honesty has been exposed, illuminating the lack of honesty about the state of the war being fed upwards into the Kremlin.

This is a story that will have a little twist at the end. Reports started circulating at the end of last week that the Ukrainians were pushing the Russians out of parts of Southern Ukraine. President Zelensky even made concrete claims of such a development in a very revealing interview with AFP. The interview was short, but what he said was important (for far more than the liberation comment). Here are the key parts of the text.

First Zelensky was specific about the amount of territory that had been liberated, 300 Square kilometres.

"I won't go into too many details," Zelensky said of the advances, "but today I can congratulate our army first and foremost -- all the defence forces -- because as of today, 300 (square) kilometres have been liberated."

That is about 115 square miles. If the Russians had done anything like that we would be faced by acres of stories about how Ukraine was in the midst of a manpower crisis and about to collapse. Hey ho.

Zelensky also went ahead and addressed the question of how the war is progressing overall. He rubbished the crisis/collapse idea. He was clear that as of now Ukraine is not losing, with the real question being whether Ukraine will win.

"You can't say that we're losing the war. Honestly, we're definitely not losing it, definitely. The question is whether we will win,"

Finally, Zelensky also spoke about the state of negotiations between the Ukrainians and Russians, which we are being told are being moderated by the USA. Not to spoil a good story below, but Zelensky undermined that idea totally and said that actually the “negotiations” are nothing of the sort. They are a process for Trump and Putin to try and bully Ukraine into giving up more territory to suit Russian needs. In Zelensky’s retelling, the US and Russians are acting in total unity.

"Both the Americans and the Russians say that if you want the war to end tomorrow, get out of Donbas,"

More of that in the next story.

Returning to the state of the war and Ukraine liberating a chunk of territory, there are a few ways to read this. One is that this was a straightforward liberation, Ukraine seizing back a large amount of territory that the Russians had occupied and controlled.

This was one narrative that was favored by those who are saying that the loss of Starlink to Russian forces had turned the tables. I am not so sure and actually think that something more interesting has happened.

First its not quite clear where the territory is that has been liberated. If you look at Deep State (still the gold standard for mapping the Ukraine War) you will see the Russians being pushed out of some contested areas on the southern front over the last 10 days—but little in the way of one large area of a counterattack. Here is the most up to date Deep State map.

And here is the exact same perspective 10 days ago.

Yes the line has moved more in the Ukrainian favor to the south and southwest of the town of Pokrovske (not Pokrovsk) but the changes seem rather smaller than Zelensky was implying.

So what has happened? I have been talking with Ukrainians I trust and they do believe that the Russians have been pushed back in this area as Zelensky has claimed. They say that the maps still now might not have reflected all the changes, as the Ukrainians (and Deep State) do no always register their advances on their maps until they have been consolidated under their control. The Ukrainians do not want to give away any indication of where their efforts are being made.

So perhaps the maps will have greater adjustment relatively soon.

On the other hand, there is a linked explanation that contains a revealing twist that could explain a great deal. It might be that the Russians never actually controlled all the area that the Ukrainians are saying they have taken back. It is not that the Russians had no troops there, its just that they were in the small infiltration units (one, two, three soldiers even) that the Russians are constantly pushing around the line.

As such, the Russians did have forces there, just not control and the Ukrainians have cleared them out. This would be the revealing part. The Russians previously were speaking like they were making some major advances in this region and the odds are that the Russian military was telling Putin exactly that. The Russians regularly claim greater advances than they actually are able to undertake and have even claimed to take over cities that they clearly did not—remember when they conquered Kupiansk?

Well, what might have happened is that Putin was, once again, being given an overoptimistic picture of what his military was doing and how the Ukrainians were fighting back. He regularly acts as if the Ukrainians are nearing collapse and that the Russians are grinding inexorably forward.

In essence the Ukrainians are trolling the Russians a little with this. Yes they have pushed the Russians back, but what has happened is that the Russians boasting and lack of honesty has gotten them into trouble. In this case the most illuminating thing is the lack of honesty about the state of the war that is being fed upwards into the Kremlin.

And it would make sense. Its depressing that Zelensky has to say in an interview that Ukraine is not losing the war. As I have said repeatedly, the Russian military campaign by most standards would be seen as a bloody failure. The Russians have thrown away well more than a million of their own soldiers—actually the number seems to be approaching 1.5 million. Their advances are small and their economy is suffering. The conditions would normally be ripe for a Ukrainian victory and had the USA not changed side that is probably what we would be looking at.

So the real story of this area might be that the Russians never controlled as much of it as they claimed and the Ukrainians have cleared them out. It is just not a story that fits the narrative of many people