In Two Separate Days Last Week, Ukraine Inflicted Record Casualties On Russians

The Russians launched their spring counteroffensive last week - and were slaughtered. One side is playing chess and the other is playing checkers. 

The Russian command thought that drizzle and fog would mask their troop movements. Which they might have - in 1944. Ukrainian ground sensors and recon drones with thermal sights quickly identified the threats and eliminated them. Which is why on two separate days in one week, record numbers of Russians were killed and wounded - and while the Russians gained no ground. Welcome to the 21st Century, comrades. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The Ukrainians inflicted 10,000 casualties on the Russians in the past week, including the two highest days of casualties in the war. On March 17 Ukraine inflicted 1710 casualties - a record - and then March 21 inflicted 1760, breaking that record. "Invisibility (caused by drizzle and fog) under old military canons was supposed to work but (no longer do). The enemy attacked using infantry, motorcycles, armored vehicles and horses across a dozen sectors. More than 500 of them were lost. Drones caused 50% of Russian losses during the week. Unmanned systems, electronic warfare, sensor transparency, precision fires, and rapid adaptation cycles have altered how combat power is generated. By systematically targeting the Russians through the coordinated use of drones and artillery, Ukraine halted, then reversed Russia’s offensive while minimizing troops at point of contact.

Over the last week, Russian losses have seen a notable spike, according to the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians claimed to have inflicted almost 10,000 casualties on the Russians, which includes the two highest days of casualties that we have seen so far in the war. On March 17 the Ukrainians claimed to have inflicted 1710 casualties a record to that time and then yesterday (March 21) they claimed to have inflicted 1760 breaking that record.

These casualties show both the Russians are stepping up attacks but also how the Ukrainian defenses have evolved. One of the reasons for the increased numbers is that the Russians seem to have started a new phase of offensive operations. The Institute for the Study of War judged in its March 21 bulletin that the Russians are transitioning to such a Spring/Summer Offensive.

It does seem that what we saw last week was more larger-scale unit attacks by the Russians, complete in some cases with a number of armored vehicles. This stands in contrast to the last few months which have mostly seen Russians making their small-scale infiltration assaults all up and down the line.

These Russian assaults last week in at least one case tried to use weather as an advantage, in the way that they had last autumn. On March 16-17 (leading into the first day of record losses) it was said that the Russians were trying to use the heavy cloud cover and fog to shield their advances.

It does not seem to have worked.

One of the major reasons for these record losses, according to the Ukrainians, was the effectiveness of their UAV based units. Here was how one well-known Ukrainian commander, Robert Brovdi, call sign “Magyar”, described what happened. Note, in the Ukrainian translation the Magyar has become Madyar.

“The bet on invisibility under old military canons was supposed to work… Before midnight, the first pre-infiltrated assault ‘worm groups’, which had been lying in wait, began moving under drizzle and met a drone backfire: over a hundred enemy bodies were put face down into the ground by Unmanned Systems Forces fighters even before midnight”, — said “Madyar”.

At dawn on March 17, the enemy attempted to attack using amassed infantry, motorcycles, armored vehicles, and even horses simultaneously across more than a dozen sectors. More than 500 of them (292 killed and 221 wounded) were struck by Unmanned Systems Forces units.

“But the fog of varying density didn’t go anywhere and still persists, so the night of March 18 stretched in time, with slightly less intensity, but as of 12:00 it cost another 277 occupiers (141 killed and 136 wounded)”, — “Madyar” noted.

He described 900 enemy casualties in a day and a half as a new benchmark. According to “Madyar”, adjacent brigades also worked effectively.”

Overall, it is being estimated that Ukrainian drones caused 50% or more of Russian losses during the past week. Moreover it is indicative of how the Ukrainian way of fighting has evolved. This is not, as one astute commentator put it, the result of Ukrainians adding drones to existing units, it is because they have re-imagined their military organizationand created entire drone-based units. These drone specialists possess a wide range of different UAV capabilities. This allows them the flexibility to detect, track and destroy Russians in many different ways. In one notable attack last week, the Ukrainians claimed to have taken out an entire battery of six Russian GRAD MLRS systems near Pokrovsk.

Just one example of how this form of warfare is evolving is the use of longer and longer range fibre-optic drones. The development of fibre-optic controlled UAVs has meant that drones that can be connected by the thin, translucent cables back to their pilot, cannot be jammed by electronic warfare. It makes them much harder to stop. The Ukrainians in the last week seem to have deployed fibre-optic controlled drones in significantly greater depth over the battlefield. One report was that a successful fibre-optic attack was launched to a depth of 50 kilometres—into Russia itself. That is a helluva long cable.

We obviously need to see how this develops. The new Ukrainian defense minister has talked about inflicting 40,000 casualties a month on the Russians while keeping Ukrainian casualties down. It certainly seems that the Ukrainians are trying to make that reality. And, perhaps, the lack of stories in the western press about the supposed devastating manpower shortage in the Ukrainian military indicates that the Ukrainians were not quite so foolish as western analysts liked to think in doing so. Or perhaps western analysts were not quite so smart as they imagined.

It is worth noting that the Ukrainians themselves are starting to explain Ukrainian thinking on this matter. Andriy Zagorodnyuk, who long time readers will know is a regular presence here and whom I consider one of the most astute strategic thinkers in Ukraine, just this week published a co-authored piece on the Ukrainian manpower situation. Eschewing the hyperbole and doom that has infused western analysts over the last few years, this team outline Ukrainian thinking and actions. It is a long article, but I strongly encourage you to read the whole thing. Here are two paragraphs that show their thinking about how Ukraine is adjusting to the modern battlefield.

The technological character of the battlefield has changed profoundly. Unmanned systems, electronic warfare, sensor transparency, precision fires, and rapid adaptation cycles have fundamentally altered how combat power is generated and how personnel are exposed to risk. In this environment, doctrine becomes decisive. Effective doctrine is a key element of any successful capability. How forces fight matters more than how many soldiers they field. Units that adapt doctrine to new environments—integrating dispersion, concealment, reconnaissance, and unmanned systems—generate greater operational effect per soldier while reducing attrition.

Ukraine’s drone-enabled units provide the clearest illustration. They account for a substantial share of Russian casualties while operating with comparatively limited personnel exposure. Their effectiveness lies not simply in technology, but in operating concepts that focus on disrupting Russian forces’ movement and imposing continuous pressure without the need for constant physical presence. In that way, these units are able to extend the so-called “kill zone”: the area of the front in which coordinated offensives are impossible due to pervasive overhead surveillance. Ukraine’s successful operations in late 2025 in and around Kupyansk offer a vivid example. By systematically targeting Russian units through the coordinated use of drones, artillery, and other remote fires, Ukraine was able to halt and reverse Russia’s offensive while minimizing the number of soldiers required at the point of contact. This operation reinforced the criticality of technology and doctrine as manpower multipliers.

Now, I am sure the next time the Russians make any noticeable advances, someone in the western press and analytical community will return to the manpower collapse narrative. Just know there is an alternative Ukrainian analysis and so far it is showing its worth.