Kremlin's "Buffer Zone" Strategy Has Been Derailed By Ukrainian Counterattacks

The Kremlin's winter strategy was to make gains so significant that Ukraine would be forced to concede to the Russian 'buffer zone' concept which would have required Ukraine to cede territory the Russian military was incapable of taking in fighting. 

Ukraine flipped that script by launching its own counteroffensive, opportunistically taking advantage of both weather and Starlink cutoffs that restricted Russian capabilities. The Ukrainians have now regained so much territory that the buffer zone concept is dead because Kyiv's forces now control formerly occupied Russian territory AND the ostensible buffer zones. JL

Martina Sapio reports in Politico:

Ukraine has regained almost complete control of its Dnipropetrovsk region and recaptured several hundred square kilometers of territory in recent counterattacks. Pushing Russian forces back undermines Moscow's attempts to establish buffer zones along parts of the border, and disrupts Russian plans for attacks in the spring and summer. As Russia’s full-scale invasion drags into its fifth year, with Moscow struggling to make significant advances despite committing large numbers of troops to grinding assaults along the front, the Ukrainian counterattacks are generating tactical, operational and strategic effects.  Moscow may now need to abandon or substantially revise its planned operations in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk.

Ukraine says it has regained almost complete control of its eastern Dnipropetrovsk region and recaptured several hundred square kilometers of territory in recent counterattacks.

Pushing Russian forces back undermines Moscow's attempts to establish buffer zones along parts of the border, and could disrupt Russian plans for fresh attacks in the spring and summer.

Details of the operation emerged Tuesday when Oleksandr Komarenko, head of the main operational directorate of the general staff of Ukraine's armed forces, told local media that Ukrainian airborne assault troops and mechanized brigades had already liberated more than 400 square kilometers of territory. According to Komarenko, Ukrainian forces have now restored control over almost all of Dnipropetrovsk region, with only a handful of small settlements still to be cleared.

He said Russian troops had attempted to push into the region as part of a broader effort to expand beyond Donbas and create a buffer zone that could support further offensive operations.

The advances follow weeks of Ukrainian counterattacks that began in late January and intensified through February, a trend that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hinted at last week in an interview with Italian media.

Western analysts say the battlefield effects are already being felt beyond the immediate area.

In its March 9 assessment, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Ukrainian counterattacks are generating tactical, operational and strategic effects that could disrupt Russia’s planned spring-summer 2026 offensive.

That matters because Russian commanders had hoped earlier gains in these directions would allow a converging advance toward the city of Zaporizhzhia, potentially opening the way for further offensives in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian counterattacks launched earlier this year appear to have complicated those plans before they could be consolidated. The ISW assessed that Moscow may now need to abandon or substantially revise its planned operations in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, or both.

At the same time, Russia is still pressuring Ukraine elsewhere.

Asked Tuesday about increased Russian activity near the Sumy border region in northeastern Ukraine, Zelenskyy told reporters via a WhatsApp chat that Moscow still aims to establish a buffer zone there and in neighboring Kharkiv region — but that Ukrainian forces are holding the line.

The ISW assessed that Moscow may now need to abandon or substantially revise its planned operations in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, or both. | Alex Nikitenko/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

“It’s no secret that they want to create a buffer zone in the Sumy region and in the Kharkiv region,” Zelenskyy said. “But we have not abandoned our goals either. We’ve blocked them everywhere. Therefore, there are no risks in the Sumy region at this time.”

He said Ukrainian forces are closely monitoring the situation along the border and defending settlements and infrastructure from Russian attacks, which he said continue to target civilian sites.

The gains come as Russia’s full-scale invasion drags into its fifth year, with Moscow struggling to make significant advances despite committing large numbers of troops to grinding assaults along the front.