To Fully Take Donbas, Russia Needs 18 More Months, Loss Of Entire Current Army

Russian negotiators continue to insist that Ukraine cede the entire Donbas region to them. 

The problem with that position, though, is that objective analyses reveal even if they could take it by force - which they have been unable to do for four years - succeeding would require at least another year and a half - and would also require losing their entire current army to do so. Which is especially problematic as the Ukrainians are now killing or disabling more Russians than the Kremlin can produce to replace them. JL

Vlad Litnarovych reports in United24:

Russia would need a year and a half to fully capture the Donbas region—and could achieve that only at the cost of losing the entire Russian force currently deployed against Ukraine. The pace of Russian advances remains extremely slow despite sustained offensive operations. Throughout 2025, Russian forces captured less than 1% of Ukraine’s total territory, paying an enormous human cost. Russia’s offensive operations are producing limited territorial gains despite sustained manpower and equipment losses, suggesting that any attempt to fully seize Donbas would come at an exceptionally high strategic cost for Moscow. Due to a severe shortage of frontline troops, the Russian military leadership on the Kherson front has begun reassigning medical personnel to active combat roles

Russia would need roughly a year and a half to fully capture the Donbas region—and could achieve that only at the cost of losing the entire Russian force currently deployed in occupied Ukrainian territories, according to Pavlo Palisa, deputy head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, speaking in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on March 1.

Palisa said the pace of Russian advances remains extremely slow despite heavy casualties and sustained offensive operations. 

He noted that throughout 2025, Russian forces captured less than 1% of Ukraine’s total territory, paying what he described as an enormous human cost—more than 450,000 Russian soldiers.

According to Palisa, Ukraine’s Defense Forces currently maintain control over approximately 6,000 square kilometers of the Donetsk region. Based on current battlefield dynamics, he said, Russia would require significant additional time and extremely heavy losses to occupy the remaining territory.

“Considering the current dynamics, it will take them approximately a year and a half to do this. And a resource equivalent to today’s Russian grouping on the territory of Ukraine. It will be very difficult for them to accomplish this. And it will be far from as fast as they want,” Palisa said.

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War in Ukraine

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His assessment underscores Kyiv’s argument that Russia’s offensive operations are producing limited territorial gains despite sustained manpower and equipment losses, suggesting that any attempt to fully seize Donbas would come at an exceptionally high strategic cost for Moscow.

Earlier, reports emerged that due to a severe shortage of frontline troops, the Russian military leadership on the Kherson front has begun reassigning medical personnel to active combat roles.