Ukraine's 2026 Gains Support Tech-Heavy, Human-Light Strategy

As Ukrainian forces continue to achieve unexpected territorial gains while significantly increasing Russian casualties, they are feeling vindicated by their strategy of investing more in technology, especially drones, in order to preserve the lives of their soldiers. 

Given the disparity between Ukraine's population versus Russia's, this was a pragmatic decision which has now yielded long term benefits for the country by obviating the need to recruit more of their young and middle aged who are needed for its economic stability and future growth. They are, meanwhile, inflicting increasingly unsustainable casualties on the Russians at a time when even that large nation is beginning to feel the loss of so many working age men. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack and Kateryna Denisova reports in the Kyiv Independent:

In historical terms, Russian advances, which have been hailed by some in the press as an inexorable march to victory and in the analytical community as a sign that Ukraine was on the verge of collapse, have been historically tiny and achieved at great cost. Ukraine's military forces have stopped Russia's advance toward the city of Zaporizhzhia as part of a three-month operation in the country's south while Ukraine actually liberated more land than the Russians seized. (And they did so) while starting to feel vindicated in their strategy of reducing their soldiers on the front line while using machines (mostly drones) to inflict what they (believe) will be unsustainable casualties on Russian forces.

The line has barely changed in historical terms. Russian advances, which have been hailed in the press as some inexorable march to victory and in the truly terrible analytical community as a sign that Ukraine was on the verge of collapse, have been historically tiny and achieved at great cost. As I have said numerous time, in historical terms what the Russians have “accomplished” would normally be seen as a sign that they are stuck in a strategic quagmire.

So I do not think we should over-react to the news from the second half of February. The line also moved relatively little, indeed hardly at all. That being said something interesting did happen, which is that when the dust settled, Ukraine actually liberated more land than the Russians seized. The best reporting on this has come from the Institute for the Study of War, which regularly leads the way in not overestimating Russia’s military capabilities as opposed to many in the analytical community. Here was a Ukrainian report on their findings.

According to ISW data, since January 1, 2026, Ukrainian forces have liberated approximately 257 square kilometers of territory. Between February 14 and 20, Ukrainian troops achieved a net gain of nearly 33 square kilometers, while from February 21 to 27 they recorded a net gain of approximately 57 square kilometers.

“The last time Ukrainian forces made net gains was during the Summer 2023 counteroffensive, when Ukrainian forces gained 377 net square kilometers in June 2023, 257 net square kilometers in July 2023, and 1.47 net square kilometers in September 2023,” the report said.

At the same time the Founder and President of the ISW had an op-ed in the Washington Post which outlined the situation in detail. You can read the whole thing for free here.

While the Ukrainians are liberating more territory than they are losing, they are also maintaining to keep Russian casualties at a very high level. Zelensky dwelt on this question in some detail on March 3.

• “We're sensing Russian weakness in certain areas. It's a new feeling. This doesn't mean we should let our guard down, let me explain. We can't relax, can't think the enemy's given up, can't think their numbers have dropped. But what's important, very important, is that personnel-wise, they feel a bit weaker. No time for training there. So they have a major personnel problem, in our view. Of course, all our personnel challenges are known, we have no secrets. We have, well, these issues, they exist. But still, we'll do everything to strengthen our guys, our army. But this feeling, it's not a bad one. I think the monthly casualty numbers are starting to have an effect. Again, I don't want to sound like some pseudo-optimist, but I'm just saying that, in my view, the enemy personnel losses are starting to add up. That's what I mean. So we'll see how things go moving forward”

Certainly the Ukrainians are starting to feel vindicated in their strategy of reducing their soldiers on the front line while using machines (mostly drones) to inflict what they hope will be unsustainable casualties on Russian forces. This Ukrainian choice was one which western analysts have been derided for years, as that talked about a manpower crisis for Ukraine on the front lines and warned that if the Ukrainians did not draft more young people and send them to the front that a collapse might ensue.

The Ukrainians disagreed and for now, they believe they were right to do so.

The best argument that the Ukrainians are right? The western analysts are much quieter about the Ukrainian manpower crisis and the major papers are not writing stories about what is happening in the front lines. Their entire narrative of the last two years has major flaws, so they are keeping quiet. 

The units of Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) and the Armed Forces have stopped Russia's advance toward the city of Zaporizhzhia as part of a three-month defensive operation in the country's south, HUR claimed on March 7.

The statement was made as Russian advances on most sections of the front line slowed during the winter, mirroring patterns observed on the battlefield the previous year. Meanwhile, Ukrainian units along the southern front in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts have been pushing forward.

HUR did not reveal the exact area where the Russian offensive was halted.

The special forces unit of Ukraine's military intelligence, Tymura, killed or wounded over 300 Russian soldiers and captured 39 more, HUR said.

"The goal of the special forces is to disrupt the Russians' offensive plans and prevent their advance toward the regional capital," the agency said.

"The actions of the special forces helped stabilize the defense at positions favorable to the Ukrainian defenders and secure Zaporizhzhia."

Zaporizhzhia, home to approximately 710,000 residents before Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, is frequently targeted by Russian forces.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast is also home to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, which has been under Russian occupation since 2022 and remains one of the thorny issues in ongoing peace talks between Ukraine, the U.S. and Russia.