Ukraine's Southern Attacks 'Outran Original Scope, Wrecked Russian Plans'

When Ukrainian forces began their initial counterattacks in late January, they were taking advantage of an opportunity caused by the now famous Russian Starlink and Telegram cutoff as well as bad weather that grounded already hobbled Russian drones. 

But the original scope of the attacks was exceeded in a few weeks, permitting the Ukrainians to adapt, and resulting in far greater advances than had been considered possible. Ukraine's attacks, which are continuing at a more deliberate pace, not only gained unexpected new territory, but 'wrecked' Russia's own plans and forced them to react to the Ukrainians, who were then able to dictate both the timing and location of ongoing fighting, contrary to the Kremlin's winter and spring plans. In that regard, it has been an unanticipated double victory. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art, Yuri Zoria reports in Euromaidan Press:

The Ukrainian push on the Oleksandrivka-Huliaipole axis began in early February, exploiting the collapse of Russian Starlink terminals. By late February, the operation had outrun its original scope and was recapturing villages Russia once firmly held. February was the first month Ukraine recaptured more territory than Russia seized since the 2024 Kursk incursion. Before the operation, Russian forces were actively regrouping and moving in reserves on the Huliaipole axis. Those intentions have been wrecked by the Ukrainian attacks. Russia is now forced to react to what Ukrainian units impose on it, rather than execute its own plans

A contested road threading the 27 miles from Velyka Novosilka to Huliaipole in southeastern Ukraine may explain why, in early February, Ukrainian forces went on the offensive in the area despite being outnumbered and outgunned.

The Velyka Novosilka-Huliaipole Road carries supplies to the Russian 5th Combined Army, which has been chipping away at dense Ukrainian fortifications just west of Huliaipole, a key logistics node the Russians captured in late December. Ukraine's recent battlefield gains near Huliaipole were a deliberate tactical operation completed weeks before the public learned of them, a regimental commander told Hromadske Radio. Dmytro Filatov, callsign Perun, commander of the 1st Separate Assault Regiment, said the window that made the operation possible has since closed — and no active moves are coming while skies stay clear.

This comes as Russia kept pushing in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian push on the Oleksandrivka-Huliaipole axis began in early February, exploiting the collapse of Russian Starlink terminals, and top general Syrskyi hinted that the situation in the area could "change radically." President Zelenskyy later said Ukrainian forces had reclaimed around 300 km² on the southern front. 

By late February, the operation had outrun its original scope and was recapturing villages Russia once firmly held. Syrskyi subsequently declared February the first month Ukraine recaptured more territory than Russia seized since the 2024 Kursk incursion.

Not a counteroffensive — a tactical operation with a weather window

The Huliaipole advances that made headlines last week were not a counteroffensive, Filatov said. Ukraine's Defense Forces executed the operation earlier, exploiting a stretch of fog and powerful winds— conditions that ground reconnaissance and strike drones on both sides.

"The successes of the Armed Forces that were reported a week ago were actually achieved much earlier — during favorable weather conditions, when there was a period of fogs and strong winds," he said. Those are conditions under which drones, including reconnaissance ones, cannot properly do their work, Hromadske Radio noted.

During that window, Ukraine's Defense Forces launched an offensive aimed at improving the tactical and operational situation on this front sector, stabilizing it, and blocking Russian advances. Filatov was specific about what it was not: 

"This is not some grand counteroffensive that everyone is shouting about. This is operational level. Maybe a little more."

Assessed control of terrain in Zaporizhzhia Oblast as of 5 March 2026, showing significant fighting near Huliaipole and Vozdvyzhivka. Map: ISW

Russia's plans disrupted — now it adapts to Ukraine

Before the operation, Russian forces were actively regrouping and moving in reserves on the Huliaipole axis. Filatov said those intentions have been wrecked. Russia is now forced to react to what Ukrainian units impose on it, rather than execute its own plans

The Russians aim to breach the fortress around Verkhnia in order to clear a path toward Orikhiv, itself a major obstacle to a march on Zaporizhzhia City, 50 miles west of the current line of contact in the southeast.

The 5th CAA will only be as successful as its supplies are reliable. And that may be why, a month ago, Ukrainian forces seized on a rare opportunity to go on the attack north of Huliaipole.